Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Thunder Dan Palyo's "My Guys"

July 14, 2025

Dan's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2025. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade including Jo Adell, Will Warren, more.

If you correctly predicted the breakouts of Pete Crow-Armstrong, James Wood, or Junior Caminero, then you have to be feeling good about the first half of baseball that they put together. But what about some of the other players who have not lived up to their expectations?

One thing that will cost you a league is complacency. To win competitive fantasy leagues, we always have to be looking forward and thinking of ways to improve our teams for the final goal of winning a championship. So I'm going to feature some of "my guys" - players I'm looking to add off waivers or trade for in every fantasy league. These seven players are set for a big second half.

"My guys" for the second half of the fantasy baseball season are a good mix of veterans and younger players, hitters and pitchers. Let's take a look, shall we?

Bryan Reynolds, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

This is going to be a good mix of some underperforming players and players who appear to be heating up at just the right time. Reynolds fits the first description as he's slashing just .224/.287/.368 with 10 home runs through his first 89 games this season.

The Pittsburgh offense has been an abomination this season. Usually, we can at least count on Reynolds' steady production, and it appeared as though Oneil Cruz was emerging as a legit weapon, but Cruz is hitting just .208. It ain't easy being a Pirates fan. I am not sure why I continue to punish myself.

But back to Reynolds, a quick look at his career stats and you can see that he's been the model of consistency over the last four seasons. He's been one of the most boring (but safe) picks in drafts during that time, as his outcome has been so predictable, and let's face it, very useful as his four-year average from 2021 through 2024 was 25 HR, 81 RBI, 81 R, 8.5 SB, and a .275 AVG.

His strikeout rate sits at 27%, five points above his career average. That's not a great sign, but it's also not a number that should make us panic, either. His plate discipline numbers don't look any different than in previous seasons, and his batted ball metrics suggest that he should have some positive regression coming in the second half.

Reynolds' xBA (expected batting average) is .271, 47 points higher than his current average, while his xSLG (expected slugging percentage) is .493, 125 points higher than his current mark of .368.

Reynolds has the third-largest disparity between his wOBA (weighted on-base average) of .287 and xwOBA of .353, with a 66-point difference. The quality of contact has been good; he's just been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball during the first half.

His HR/FB is 13.2% right now, the lowest mark of his career and 3% lower than his career average. I think more home runs are coming, either as a member of the Pirates or another contending team, though Reynolds's no-trade clause complicates things for a trade.

I'd try to pry him away from a frustrated manager; his underlying stats suggest he could return to form in the second half.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/SS/OF - Boston Red Sox

I have been preparing this article for nearly a week, so naturally, during that time, Rafaela has become one of the hottest hitters on the planet. That slams the buy-low window, but perhaps we can convince another manager to sell high, because I think there's more coming in the second half, too.

CEDDANNE RAFAELA WALKS IT OFF FOR THE RED SOX pic.twitter.com/4DJ1P8Qax3

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 12, 2025

When we look at the entire profile for Ceddy, it's pretty clear that he's a fantastic defensive player with excellent speed on the basepaths. But his quality of contact is also impressive, and his power is emerging. The biggest weaknesses are his chase rate and lack of walks, but there have been some recent developments that show that he could be improving there, too.

Rafaela's K% this month is down to 11.4% and he's blistering the baseball with a 46.7% Hard%. He's pulling the ball 10% more often and is getting more balls in the air, so the big increase in home runs makes a lot of sense.

At this rate, he'll surpass his 2024 season totals in home runs (15) and steals (19) with ease, while his .271 average is 25 points higher than where he finished last year.

A 20-20 season feels like a lock, with a 25-25 campaign being a distinct possibility. He has all the raw tools and is finally putting them all together. I don't view this as just a hot streak; I think we are seeing one of the game's newest superstars emerge before our eyes.

Jo Adell, OF - Los Angeles Angels

We are going for upside here with these young outfielders. Adell is 26 years old and in his sixth MLB season, but last year was the first season he played more than 88 games. Shout out to my good friend John Laghezza, who called Adell this preseason as a post-post-post-hype sleeper (since we have been waiting on the breakout for quite some time!)

I'm swinging for the fences with this Adell pick, which is pretty fitting since that's what he does just about every time he's at the plate, too.

Adell sits at 19 home runs as of today, just one homer shy of his entire 2024 season total. After hitting just .207 in 2023 and 2024, Adell has raised his average to a much more palatable .243.

Jo Adell’s career high home runs in a season was 20, which he set last year.

This was his 19th home run before the All-Star break! pic.twitter.com/smlzHEEVvW

— Brad (@StatsBrad) July 5, 2025

Adell has room for improvement, too. His .396 xwOBA is the 16th-best mark in baseball and ahead of hitters such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle Tucker, Bobby Witt Jr., and Corbin Carroll.

His current stats lag behind his expected stats, with his xBA 46 points higher and his xSLG 91 points higher. He's trimmed his K% down to just 23.3% on the season, which is 7% lower than his career average.

He's not stealing bases this season, but his power and run production are still something to get very excited about. He's on pace to hit at least 35 home runs and rack up close to 100 RBI, and I am here for it!

Corey Seager, SS - Texas Rangers

The buy-low window on Corey Seager may already be shut, but I'd still be doing everything I could to get this man on my roster for the second half.

Seager dealt with a few minor injuries earlier in the year, causing him to miss 32 games. Then he hit just .188 in June once he returned from injury.

But through his first 10 games in July, Seager is hitting .417 and reminding us of just how good he can be when he's healthy.

Corey Seager’s last 13 games:

17-for-47 (.362)
6 HR
13 RBI
254 wRC+
1.4 fWAR

After a slow start to the season, he’s blossomed into one of the best shortstops in baseball again. pic.twitter.com/TujcyROglV

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 11, 2025

There's plenty of room for improvement in the second half as Seager will attempt to hit 30 home runs for the fourth straight season in Texas. Like Reynolds, Seager's current stats all lag well behind his expected stats.

• BA = .270, xBA = .314
• SLG = 481, xSLG = .621
• wOBA = .370, xwOBA = .434

The 64-point gap in his wOBA and xwOBA puts him right behind Reynolds with the fourth-biggest disparity among qualified hitters, and his .434 xwOBA trails only Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.

Seager still ranks 290 on Yahoo! currently, so perhaps there's an angle to pry him away from another manager, or talk up his injury history if you have to. Still, Seager has been an excellent second-half player in his career, and I expect him to prove it again in 2025.

Will Warren, SP - New York Yankees

It's time for more Will Warren propaganda, so prepare yourself accordingly. I'll admit that I had my doubts as to his viability this season when the Yankees broke training camp, and I thought that maybe he was being hyped up a bit too much.

But Warren has shown some major signs of emerging as an outstanding MLB pitcher. I recently unveiled my new starting pitcher ratings, and Warren was one of the big surprises as he ranked 33rd on my list, right behind Freddy Peralta and ahead of Ryan Pepiot.

Will Warren in 2025:

90 IP
4.70 ERA - 3.55 xERA ‼
3.21 FIP ‼
28% K%
26.1% Whiff%
45.2% GB%

His sweeper has a .319 BAA (.254 xBA) and .507 SLG (.411 xSLG) while generating an elite 32% Whiff% and touching 3,000+ RPM consistently.

He's only going to get better.#RepBX pic.twitter.com/7JIbtVPXnR

— LouisAnalysis (@LouisAnalysis) July 11, 2025

I was going to dig into his numbers a bit deeper, but this tweet does a pretty darn good job of making my case. Warren's expected stats show that he could easily improve on his ERA in the second half, which is the one stat that is dragging down his ranking in category leagues.

Ideally, he would trim a few ticks off his 10.4% walk rate, too, but his elite 28% K% is helping to make up for some of those walks.

Warren is still available in 52% of Yahoo! leagues, which baffles me. He's shown some massive upside and needs to be more consistent, something that applies to most young pitchers with his lack of experience. I think he could be ready for a big second half, and I'm all in on Warren at this point.

Ronny Henriquez, RP - Miami Marlins

This section on Henriquez could be extra short if I wanted it to be. Here are some quick facts.

• At 42-51, the Marlins are not a bad baseball team. They have more wins than four other NL teams and two AL teams.
• Miami is 5-6 in July.
• Henriquez has surpassed Calvin Faucher as the closer for the Fish.
• Henriquez has a save or a win in five of his last six appearances.
• Henriquez has yet to allow a run in the ninth inning with a 0.33 WHIP in six ninth-inning appearances.

Ronny Henriquez is now up to 63 strikeouts, which leads all National League relievers. Helluva waiver claim. pic.twitter.com/NOTiaa4sBH

— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) July 10, 2025

 The logic here is simple! We have an emerging closer who has flashed some dominant strikeout stuff. I know we often avoid bad teams when looking for closers, but Miami's offense has been improved this season, and with Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera flashing some good form lately, there should be plenty of save opportunities in the second half for Henriquez.

He's rostered in juyst 39% of Yahoo! leagues, but he will be a hot commodity this week in waivers. He looks ready to take on the closer responsibilities, and if he can net you 10+ saves down the stretch, he could be a real difference-maker in leagues.

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