X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitcher Targets Under $5 - Salary Cap League Values

Todd Salem identifies pitchers to target under $5 in salary cap (auction) drafts for 2021 fantasy baseball leagues. These SP and RP could be undervalued sleepers on draft day.

It's a cliché to say that those managers who finally dip their toe into salary cap leagues never go back to snake drafts. Snake drafts have their own charm. There is simply more going on, and thus, more fun to have when participating in a salary cap draft. There become no bounds on how one wants to build their roster.

Snake drafts require managers to keep their eye on late targets to fill out their roster. In salary cap leagues, however, a manager can build their entire roster around multiple stars and then continually fill in with late-round values. The cheaper players are key; finding those that elevate and extend a roster.

For this exercise, we're targeting pitchers under $5. That rules out roughly the top 200 players in drafts. From this vantage point, some managers may look for high-risk, high-reward plays to strike big with a small investment. There are plenty of safer guys to acquire as well, to balance out a stars-and-scrubs draft approach.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

Cost: $3

The weird, unparalleled 2020 season notwithstanding, we know what we are getting from Paxton: great numbers, with lesser volume due to expected IL stints. As mentioned in the piece about hitters under $5 to target in drafts, a lot of 2021 value will be determined by whether managers over or underrate what happened last season. With Paxton, it was a lost year. There is nothing to read into other than a drop in velocity caused by his forearm injury and accepting that he is bound to get hurt again this season. Hopefully, it will be a couple of 10-day stints and nothing more because when Paxton is on the mound, he is still a premier starter.

It has been five years since his strikeout rate was anything below 28 percent. Not counting the five starts in '20, it's been six years since his xFIP was above 4.03. If Paxton's health was not a concern, he would be a $17-25 pitcher. We get a steep discount off that talent because he is going to miss time. It seems like a tradeoff worth making unless your league doesn't utilize any IL slots for some reason.

 

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

Cost: $3

There were questions as to whether Javier would be guaranteed a rotation spot for Houston in 2021. Justin Verlander is going to miss the season; Framber Valdez fractured his finger; Forrest Whitley sprained his elbow. There is no longer a question, even after the Jake Odorizzi signing. Javier is going to be a rotation starter. '20 was Javier's first time in the Majors, and his final numbers were up-and-down. He didn't miss enough bats. His xFIP was 1.38 runs worse than his ERA. He pitched to a .194 BABIP. And yet, there is reason to be excited about his future. For one, his strikeout numbers in the minors are much better than he displayed in his first taste of the highest level. The best individual sample we have is probably at Double-A in 2019. He pitched 74 innings and collected a 39 percent K-rate.

A .194 BABIP also seems unsustainable, but he pitched to nearly the exact same rate in 2019 at Double-A and Triple-A. It's because of the contact he gives up. Even during struggles in '20, Javier finished in the top 10 percent of the league in hard-hit percentage allowed, at 29.3 percent. He also gave up an average exit velocity of 86.9, in the 74th percentile. Sure, his BABIP allowed was .194...but his xBA was .185. It was no fluke.

 

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Cost: $3

Earlier in the offseason, the NFBC ADP metrics had Sale priced as if he was going to pitch nearly the whole season. We knew that wouldn't be the case. Now, there seems to have been an overcorrection, or at least, a correction we can take advantage of. Getting Sale even for a third of the season at $3 is a bargain worth hunting.

First, the injury recovery: Sale had Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. Thus, we are already 12 months removed from that procedure. Players' returns obviously vary but usually range anywhere from 12 to 18 months. It means there is a distinct possibility that Sale doesn't see the mound at all this season, but the chance he pitches seems worth the risk.

Pre-2019, Sale was one of the best pitchers in baseball. It isn't necessary to run through the numbers, but just know that he finished in the top six of Cy Young voting every single season from 2012 through 2018. If that guy is back, $3 is worth it for three starts. But even if prime Sale doesn't resurface until 2022, the "bad" version of him from 2019 still did the following: had a 35.6 percent K-rate, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 2.93 xFIP. In other words, his worst season was still pretty darn good.

 

Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays

Cost: $2

Pearson could be considered a stand-in for high-upside prospects ready to break out if given the opportunity. He just happens to have a better opportunity than most. Once he recovers from his groin strain, a spot in the Toronto rotation should be his. And then comes the unleashing of his 100 mph fastball and 65/70 grade slider. For fantasy managers that want to take a chance on someone cheap who could end up anchoring a team for years, this is a chance worth taking.

We got just a taste of Pearson's repertoire in '20. He wasn't very good, but it wasn't enough to go off of. In fact, Pearson has only thrown 141.1 professional innings in total. That's where we could see a silver lining to his current groin strain. It was unlikely that he could handle a full workload this season anyway. He only threw 18 innings in '20. If he's ramped back up to 2019 levels (101.2 innings across three levels), that still only translates to 18-20 starts. Whatever manager selects him in the salary cap draft should expect that volume as a max, whether the missed time comes early, late, or both.

 

Closers

Don't pay for closers. The good ones aren't good for long. The bad ones become good again. More than half the teams rotate through them at the drop of a hat. Starting the season with closers on a roster is important though. Even if you feel comfortable being able to acquire them repeatedly as the season goes on, you don't want your fantasy team to fall too far into the hole (in roto leagues). Anthony Bass (RP, MIA) is going for $3 and will likely be the Marlins' closer on Opening Day. Tanner Scott (RP, BAL) could be Baltimore's closer now that Hunter Harvey is on the 60-day IL and will only cost $2 on average. There are a few other closers who are in a similar boat.

All of them may be out of the job by summer or earlier. Some may pitch poorly but continue to garner save chances. Whatever the case, come away from the draft with closers to start accumulating the category. From there, the draft is only the first step to competing in saves, but this way won't cost you much of your budget at all.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
NBA

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Philadelphia 76ers

Kyle Lowry Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Jock Landale

Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF