Deeper NFL Draft Wide Receiver Prospects - Michael F. Florio's Scouting Report and Rankings

The NFL Draft is nearly here! And while you think that is when the prep stops, you would be greatly mistaken. Honestly, the draft just gives us the last piece of information needed to help us decide which rookies we want to draft in fantasy football. With that said it's still important to understand a prospect's skill set to determine what they do well, what they struggle with, and what kind of role they could play in their first year in the NFL.

Figuring out a player's role becomes easier once we know their landing spot and draft capital used in their selection. For instance, Dameon Pierce was not in the rookie RB1 conversation last year until he was drafted by the Texans and had a clear path to a lot of volume. However, if you knew nothing about Pierce you may not have felt as confident. The same rule can be applied to receivers. That is why you can continue to check back to this receiver series throughout the summer to help you learn more about the rookie pass catchers.

This is the third and final part of this series. In the first, I went over the big four receivers, all of whom are expected to go in the first round. In the second part of this series, I wrote about some of my personal favorites outside of the first-round locks. Here are the rest of the receivers that have caught my eye and stood out during my months of draft prep. Not all of these players will hit but some will certainly be trendy fantasy sleepers or even waiver-wire darlings this upcoming season.

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Cedric Tillman, Tennessee

Cedrick Tillman is one of the few prospects that have the attributes of an X receiver at the NFL level. He has the size at 6’3"and 213 pounds with long arms. Tillman missed more games than he played in 2022 due to an ankle injury that required surgery. However, he did enough in 2021 to remain on the NFL team’s radars. That season he led the Volunteers with 64 catches, 1,081 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns. He became Tennessee's first 1,000-yard receiver since 2012.

Tillman shines in a way that you would expect a traditional X receiver to. He can win on short to intermediate routes and is physical enough to beat press or man coverage. He also uses his size to help win contested catches. In fact, over the last two seasons, he caught 53 percent of his contested targets – the third-highest rate of receivers in this series. His ability to win comeback routes stood out while watching his tape.

The concern with Tillman is he does not have high-end speed, which could make it tough for him to win downfield. However, he did run a 4.54 40, which is strong considering his size. He also can make up for his lack of burst with his size and ability to win 50/50 balls. He's also not great after the catch; his 4.2 YAC ranked second worst of the 15 receivers in this series. Tillman is never going to be considered explosive and will need to see volume to be useful in fantasy. There is still a lot of upside here. He's drawn comparisons to many receivers who possess a similar skill set in the NFL. The low-end for me would be DeVante Parker, while the high-end is Michael Pittman Jr. His landing spot greatly matters but Tillman is certainly a player to get excited about in this class.

 

Jayden Reed, Michigan State

Jayden Reed measured in at 5’10" and 187 pounds while running a 4.45 40-yard dash to go along with a 33.5-inch vertical leap. He caught 55 balls for 636 yards and five touchdowns in 2022. That was after catching 59 passes for 1,026 yards and 10 touchdowns as a junior the prior season. His seven contested catches on throws of 20-plus air yards ranked third in the FBS.

One great thing about Reed is that he was used all over the field in college – seeing time as an X, slot, and flanker. Not only does it show his versatility, which makes him more appealing to NFL teams, but it makes it easier for him to get snaps once he's in the league. He has great footwork and quickness that helps him win off the line of scrimmage. His agility helps him beat man coverage and is hard to impact with press coverage. He also has a knack for reading defenses and finding the weak spot against zone coverages.

Reed is a crisp route runner who could be a chain mover in the NFL. Not can he get open quickly, but he's also adept after the catch. He is a better weapon in the short to intermediate portions of the field, but he does have the ability to win downfield. While he will never be a consistent field stretcher, he could have success if he picks his spots right. However, he can create separation and is not afraid to go over the middle of the field. He is a better contested-catch receiver than he likely gets credit for as well. Reed caught 50 percent of his contested targets over the past two seasons.

His biggest weakness is his size. It doesn’t seem to impact him too much in the press and will not be detrimental to him at the next level. However, he struggles as a blocker and that could impact his playing time. He can also get pushed around a little at times. Reed does not have top-end speed, meaning he will not be a consistent field stretcher at the NFL level.

While he profiles as a secondary receiver who can be utilized all over the field, there would still be fantasy value. His body type and style of play remind me a bit of Stefon Diggs at times. That is way too high of a comparison for Reed but there is still a lot to like here.

 

Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, Houston

Tank Dell measured in at 5’8" and 165 pounds with a 4.49 40-yard dash. He led the FBS with 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns and his 109 catches ranked second. Do not let his size fool you, Dell led the FBS with 11 receiving touchdowns vs man coverage and with 826 yards against press coverage. His 14 red zone touchdowns not only led the FBS but it was five more than the next closest player.

While he showed some speed, Dell is more quick than fast. And I mean that as a compliment as well. His quickness is why he was so effective against the press as it is tough to put hands on him at the line of scrimmage. Dell did most of his damage out of the slot and that is the role he will need to play at the NFL level to be most successful

The weakness of Dell is obviously his size. Not only is it likely to turn some teams away, but he may get labeled as a gadget player, which would be pretty bad for his fantasy outlook. His lack of size also shows up on film at times. The longer downfield he gets, the easier it is for the defender to not only catch up to him but for the coverage to take him out of a play.

While I like Dell as a talent, his size does give me concerns. That may not be fair, especially considering this class. For instance, are he and Josh Downs all that different size-wise? I am not sure, but it seems to be a bigger talking point with Dell. The landing spot will greatly impact his fantasy outlook, I envision him being a better real-life player than a fantasy football one.

 

A.T. Perry, Wake Forest

A.T. Perry brings size to a draft class that, as you may have heard, lacks it. He is 6’3", 198 pounds, and has a nearly 82-inch wingspan. This past season he was All-ACC after leading the Demon Deacons with 81 catches and 1,096 yards. He finished with 11 touchdowns and has 26 over the last two years. In 2021 he went for 1,293 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Perry showed the ability to win downfield in college. He averaged 15.8 air yards per target over the last two years. In that span, 27 percent of his targets were over 20 air yards down the field. Perry can track the long ball well and use his length to reel it in. While he has the speed to win downfield, it takes him a bit to get going. He has the size to win in the middle of the field as well but his route running and ability to create quick separation need some work.

Perry did not show the ability to be a weapon after the catch in college. His 3.1 YAC over the last two years was by far the lowest of all the receivers in this series. That number drops to just 2.0 in 2022. Also, despite having size, he did not win many of his contested catches. In the last two years, he caught just 36 percent of his contested targets, the third lowest rate amongst this group.

Perry is not a player that I anticipate coming with much, if any, fantasy hype this season. He will likely be waiver wire fodder as he projects to be a team’s number two or three receiver. The floor isn’t very high, but there is an upside here due to the big play ability.

 

Rashee Rice, SMU

Rashee Rice is 6’0", 204 pounds, and ran a 4.51 40-yard dash. His 41-inch vertical jump was tied for the best amongst receivers at the combine. Rice also led the FBS with 112.9 receiving yards per game last season. His 1,355 receiving yards ranked third and his 96 catches to go along with 252 receiving yards gained after contact were both fifth. His 593 yards after the catch ranked third and his 16 contested catches were ninth in the country. He finished with nine receiving touchdowns in 2022.

The first thing that jumped out when I watched Rashee Rice was his physicality. The stats above help paint the picture as Rice was an after-the-catch weapon that moved the chains with his physical play. The second aspect that jumped out was Rice’s ability to win 50/50 balls. He is able to time his jump well and then use his long arms to snatch the ball away from defenders. Last year, he caught 32 percent of his contested targets. He is also shifty, forcing 19 missed tackles as a receiver, which is tied with Quentin Johnston for the class lead.

The issue with Rice is while he has some nice flashes, he still needs to develop as a receiver. He is a bit of a sloppy route runner and has inconsistent hands. He even lacks consistency with the things he does well, such as contested catches. He can use work in that aspect as he's just not as dependable as you would like. I like to blame much of this on his offense as SMU sort of pigeon-holed him, asking him to often run the same routes. More diversity in his route tree would have been beneficial to Rice as an NFL prospect.

Rice is certainly a receiver that brings upside but he is likely more of a developmental project right now. It's tough to project him as a consistent contributor in the league right away but he could show some flashes as a rookie. He is a player you can target in the second or third round of rookie drafts – depending on the landing spot – but in redraft leagues, he is just a player that we hope can break out off the waiver wire.

 

Xavier Hutchinson, Iowa State

Xavier Hutchinson is 6’1", 203 pounds, and ran a 4.53 40-yard dash to go along with a 36-inch vertical jump. He finished last season with 107 receptions and 1,171 receiving yards. He excelled against zone coverage, leading the FBS with 84 catches against it. His 951 yards vs zone ranked second as well. His 12 contested catches in 2022 were also second in the FBS.

Hutchinson's excellent hands and concentration stand out in his watching his tape He dropped just four percent of his catchable targets the past two seasons, which was the lowest of the 15 receivers in this series. He also has good body control which helps him win contested catches.

As good as he was against zone coverage, he struggled against the press and can be slowed down or jammed at the line of scrimmage. He also needs to work on his route running and can struggle to create separation, especially the further from the line of scrimmage he gets. He is at his best on short to intermediate routes.

Hutchinson figures to be a later-round pick in the NFL Draft but there is reason for optimism if he ends up in the right landing spot. While he largely worked as an outside receiver in college, I'm not sure if he can operate as an X at the next level. I don't think a team would give him that chance – likely opting to use him as a two. I would love to see him get some time in the slot as well, as again, his best attribute is the ability to quickly get open against zone coverage. For fantasy, he is a mid to late-round pick in rookie drafts and a waiver wire hopeful in redraft.

 

Florio’s Ranking of the Top 15 NFL Draft Wide Receivers

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2. Quentin Johnston
3. Zay Flowers
4. Jordan Addison
5. Josh Downs
6. Cedric Tillman
7. Marvin Mims
8. Jalin Hyatt
9. Jayden Reed
10. Michael Wilson
11. Jonathan Mingo
12. Nathaniel “Tank” Dell
13. A.T. Perry
14. Rashee Rice
15. Xavier Hutchinson

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