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Michael F. Florio gives you an in-depth scouting report of his top four wide receivers heading into the 2023 NFL Draft. What do they do well? What do they struggle with?
It would be an understatement to say that football fans and fantasy players have been spoiled by the recent rookie receiver classes. The draft classes from the last few years have provided a ton of star power. Many of the fantasy WR1s such as Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Garrett Wilson are from the recent classes. And there are many more fantasy-relevant receivers not listed because not only did these recent draft classes bring firepower, but they also brought depth.
This year's crop of rookie receivers is not on the same level as those other recent ones. The likelihood that one -- let alone multiple -- of these receivers become elite fantasy options is lower than in recent years. However, that does not mean there is no talent to be had. This year’s draft, like always, will have a big impact on the fantasy football landscape. That’s why it is important to know what to expect from these rookies once they enter the league.
This article will focus on the top four options in this year's rookie class. They are all in play to be first-round picks in this year's draft and will make an impact in fantasy. The class does not stop here, though. The next article in this series will focus on the rest of the receiver class, which does possess some depth.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, The Ohio State University
Jaxon Smith-Njigba will join a growing list of Buckeye receivers to go in the first round. A hamstring injury cost him basically the entire 2022 season, limiting him to only five catches for 43 yards. But it didn’t hurt his draft stock as he had already done enough in 2021.
That year, he went off for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns on 95 catches. It is especially impressive when you include that he had to compete for targets with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and the next year's WR1, Marvin Harrison Jr. He led the Buckeyes in receiving yards that season. He also led that group in yards per route run, missed tackles forced, explosive plays, yards per catch, YAC per catch, and more.
In fact, his 3.88 yards per route run leads all of college football over the past two seasons. When Wilson and Olave sat out of the Rose Bowl, Smith-Njigba exploded for 347 yards and three touchdowns on 15 catches.
The vast majority of his snaps and routes came from the slot, which is not a bad thing but for some reason gets treated as one. We have seen route technicians thrive in the slot and put up fantasy WR1 numbers for years now. In the modern NFL, a slot receiver can be a very useful fantasy option.
The Ohio State product showed on tape and again at the NFL combine that he has an elite cutting ability that can help him quickly create separation and get open. That ability from the slot will make him a zone destroyer and a frequent target for whoever his future QB ends up being.
Just because he won in the slot so much in college does not mean he cannot win out wide -- or at least learn to do so. When Justin Jefferson entered the draft, the knock on him was he could only play in the slot. We saw how that worked out. Not saying Smith-Njigba is the next Jefferson though, as he will likely continue to run most of his routes from the slot at the NFL level. But he has the capability to play out wide enough to remain on the field in two wide receiver sets.
I am not sure there is a consensus WR1 in this class, but JSN is the closest thing to it. He is my top receiver in this draft class. He has drawn comparisons to Keenan Allen and I see why.
However, when I watched him, the player I kept thinking of was Amon-Ra St. Brown. I see JSN as a more polished route runner with the potential to be even better than St. Brown. The landing spot always matters for prospects, but Smith-Njigba will be fantasy-relevant even as a rookie. He’s the cream of the crop in this year's receiver class.
Quentin Johnston, TCU
Quentin Johnston is one of the most interesting prospects in this draft class. On one hand, he is a physical freak and one of the only receivers in this class with the combination of size and ability to be a true X at the NFL level. On the other hand, he can often play smaller than his size and has hand issues. Watching his tape will leave you super impressed at times and scratching your head at others. But as an optimist, let's focus on the positives first.
Johnston is one of the best yards after the catch receivers in this class despite him being a big-bodied receiver in a class full of smaller ones. His 8.7 YAC per reception was second among draft-eligible players in college football last year. It was certainly the best of the receivers expected to go in the early rounds.
His 296 yards after contact led all receivers. He has the ability to quickly stop before hitting the acceleration button and taking off. He also does a tremendous job putting himself in a position to win after the catch before even making the catch, along with having one of the coldest spin moves you will see.
Johnston showed the ability to win on deep passes at times in 2022. He caught 77 percent of his catchable targets on passes of 20-plus air yards. He also put up numbers despite playing without an elite-level QB. His 2.93 yards per route run ranked fourth among draft-eligible receivers. He ranks extremely well among this receiver class in terms of college stats.
Despite all that, there are certainly negatives in his game. Because of his size (and at times the QB play), Johnston saw 27 percent of his targets be contested -- the highest among the receivers expected to go in the first couple of rounds. However, he only caught 32 percent of those, which puts him behind a bunch of receivers in this draft class, most of whom are much smaller than he is.
He caught just 23 percent of his contested deep targets. That to me is the biggest area of improvement for Johnston. If he could learn to play a more physical style and use his size to high point the football, he could be a true alpha X receiver. However, without that, he is likely destined to be a number two option -- which is fine.
Perhaps part of the reason he struggles to high point the football is because of his hands. He struggled with drops throughout his college career, typically because he too often tries to use his body to catch the ball. This can be fixed, but if it isn’t, it will definitely limit his potential at the next level.
There is no perfect comparison to Johnston. He has an unusual skill set for a player of his size and struggles where those with his mass usually dominate. If he can learn to use his size as a strength, he could have the best fantasy career of anyone in this class. However, because of the concerns, he comes in as my number two receiver in this class.
Jordan Addison, USC
Jordan Addison dominated with Kenny Pickett at Pitt in 2021 before transferring to USC, playing with the eventual Heisman winner in Caleb Williams and somehow putting up worse numbers. In his defense, Addison was dealing with injuries, but his 2022 season certainly left a bit to be desired. However, just like with the others, we will start with the positives.
The first thing that jumps off the screen when watching Addison is his route-running ability. He is a smooth route runner who can manipulate defenders to create separation. There really isn’t a route he can’t run and get open on. And that is another strength of his -- he showed the ability to win both in the slot and out wide.
That is vital when you are a receiver with some size concerns. He has the ability to get open at all three layers of the passing game, which is vital to being on the field consistently at the higher level. He was heavily featured in the screen game at USC but showed the ability to win downfield there and especially at Pittsburgh. The ability to win downfield and after the catch on shorter passes will also help keep him on the field.
The stats from his 2022 season don’t jump off the page, but his 2021 numbers certainly do. That season, he led all 2023 draft-eligible players in receiving yards (1,628) and touchdowns (17) and was second in first downs (65) and catches of 15-plus yards (41). He also ranked fourth in missed tackles forced (21) and yards per route run (2.88). He did so by playing 68 percent of his snaps from the slot.
While his numbers took a hit last year -- that was also because he missed time and played through injury. He did see his catch rate on catchable targets jump from 86 percent to 95 percent in 2022, which is important because he struggled with drops early in his career. Despite that, I came away from his tape thinking he had impressive hands. He also reduced his slot play dramatically in 2022, which helped showcase his ability to win out wide.
However, he is not without his own concerns. Addison weighed in at just 173 pounds at the NFL combine. He ran an unofficial 4.49, which is very important because only a few receivers have been first-round picks without running a sub 4.5 40. And those who were drafted were all much larger than Addison.
The 40 time is not as big of a concern to me because he showed the ability to play faster than his 40 time indicates. However, the size is a bit concerning. And before you think I am a sizeist or something -- I was a huge advocate for DeVonta Smith and often go to bat for my sub-six foot kings.
However, Addison's size concerns do translate on the field. He struggled against press coverage in college. For those who don’t know, press coverage is when the cornerback lines up at the line of scrimmage and will bump the receiver -- often dubbed bump and run. Addison especially struggled to create separation downfield when in press coverage. He can be driven to the sideline as well at times. The WR will need to add some physicality to his game at the NFL level.
Addison will be a useful NFL piece but he shapes up to be more of a number two option for a team. He can be a flanker used in the screen game and in the slot. But he will likely never be a true number one at the higher level.
When watching him play, I was largely reminded of the previously mentioned Smith, who also came into the league with size concerns. However, his concerns translated onto the field significantly less than they did for Addison. While I do not think he can be an elite option at the higher level like Smith, I see a lot of similarities in their game. The USC product is my third wide receiver in this class, but it would not surprise me if he ended up higher than that.
Zay Flowers, Boston College
There was no receiver held back more by their QB play than Zay Flowers at Boston College. Flowers has the ability to win downfield and after the catch despite his lack of size. He is trying to work on that lack of size, showing up to the NFL combine looking like a small tank. However, even after gaining around 10 pounds, he still stands at 5’9, 182 pounds. That is the big negative with Flowers. However, there are plenty of positives to like as well.
Flowers can quickly create separation and he did so plenty in college -- which is really all a receiver can do. Watch some of his film, and you will see that the QB play really held Flowers back in college. Flowers is the type of receiver that you just want to put the ball in his hands and see what he can do.
He is lightning-fast and is extremely twitchy after the catch. Receivers with that skill set at his size are often dubbed as gadget players, but Flowers has the potential to be more than that. While he is best utilized on shorter routes, he showed in college that he could consistently win downfield -- in 2022 alone, he had 12 catches of 20-plus air yards.
The best part is he operated both out of the slot and outside in college and showcased that he can run all routes and get open at all three layers of the field. He will likely be used more in the slot in the NFL, but the fact that he can go outside at times is only a good thing as it can help keep him on the field more. This tends to lead to more opportunities for good separators.
Flowers showed that he can win contested targets, and if you search his highlights on YouTube, you will certainly see some of those. However, he can still greatly improve his consistency on those types of catches. Nevertheless, it may be tough for him to do so at the next level as he is already undersized and dealing with a small catch radius.
He can also struggle to high point the ball, which isn’t surprising given his size. While there is not a route he cannot run, his route running can use a bit of polish. I also have concerns about whether he was just purely faster than defenders in college because he often ran past them in a straight line.
That will not happen nearly as frequently at the higher level. Drops were an additional issue for him in college. It is somewhat worrisome, but I believe Flowers has better hands than the stats indicate and he just needs some more consistency there. That is certainly coachable at the next level.
I have seen a number of different player comparisons from Tyler Lockett to Diontae Johnson to Travis Benjamin. The one that I think fits the most is Lockett, as the two have very similar measurables. On top of that, Lockett can win consistently in the slot but also can win outside and both on short and deep routes.
Also, you can’t measure heart, but it is clearly there with Lockett and Flowers is no different. The more I look into him, the more I like. He very well may climb even higher in my rookie ranks before the draft. Flowers is certainly one of the top receiver talents in this year's draft and has the potential to make a fantasy impact immediately if he lands in the right spot.
Make sure to continue to come back as I will be breaking down more receivers and plenty of other draft prospects leading into the 2023 NFL Draft.
Follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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