Last year's rookie class was one of the worst rookie running back classes in years, shown most loudly by the highest drafted running back going at pick 54 (which would be Bishop Sankey). The 2014 RB bunch underwhelmed in immediate impact with only one player reaching the point where he could be safely started two weeks in a row, and that was Bengals rookie Jeremy Hill. But one down year of running back production doesn't mean that rookie RBs don't or won't produce.

Since the start of the high powered passing offense era (2006) there have been 19 Running Backs who have finished a season with at least RB2 numbers of 800 yards and 6 touchdowns (a value that can be easily achieved without starting 16 games, in fact 7 rookie running backs managed to break that feat starting less than 10 games). So who will be the Eddie Lacy and Chris Johnson of the 2015 rookie class?

Today, we'll look at some potential sleepers and busts in this year's NFL rookie running back class, and analyze whether you should consider drafting them. We’ve considered these RBs because of their potential fantasy return, or bust potential, based on your draft-day investment and their current ADPs. Let's rank who's got the best chances.

 

Tier 1: Starters - 2015 Rookie Running Back Redraft Rankings

1. Melvin Gordon - RB, San Diego Chargers

ADP: 34th Overall, RB16

I'll be the first to say that Melvin Gordon isn't my favorite running back from this class but that doesn't change that out of everyone he is the most certain to see playing time immediately and often. The Chargers have already made commitments to Gordon by playing him with the first team as soon as training camp opened.

San Diego finished in the bottom 3rd of the league last year in rushing, which was part of what brought on the trading up for and drafting Melvin Gordon. They also committed to creating a beastly offensive line as they nabbed Orlando Franklin, one of the best guards on the market, from rival Denver Broncos and then added Joe Barksdale to the right tackle position- while moving former first rounder D.J. Fluker inside. Those are a lot of huge bodies to put on the line and big bodies result in better run blocking. Having Philip Rivers throwing the ball around fully healthy again after being a near MVP candidate in the first half of 2014 should help too.

Last year, the Chargesr ran the ball 398 times- a huge drop off from their 486 rushes in 2013. It can be safely assumed that the moves made this offseason were a commitment to return to that 486 number, which would have been 6th most in the league last year. You can't beat opportunities like that on a team with as much scoring potential as this.

 

2. Ameer Abdullah - RB, Detroit Lions

ADP: 70th Overall, RB28

Ameer Abdullah burst onto the scene in a week 1 preseason game against the Jets that showed the NFL viewers what everyone who watched Abdullah in college already knew: he's very good. There's simply no one else on the Detroit Lions roster who offers the same kind of versatility Abdullah does for the offense and the competition hasn't done anything to lock down the job. Despite already having receiving back Theo Riddick on the roster, the Lions had no issue selecting a player to replace Reggie Bush so it's fair to say Riddick poses no threat.

Joique Bell on the other hand still has a chance to take carries from Abdullah but ineffectiveness and injury are making it seem more and more like Abdullah's going to be the head of this committee. Last year, Bell only had 3.9 YPC struggling to create yardage despite finishing amongst the best in the league when it came to yards after contact. That paints a very clear picture to me: Bell's a heavy plodder. To matters worse, Bell's missed all of the offseason training with an injury, which has allowed Abdullah to spend all of his time with the first team.

So say Abdullah takes over the lead role, what's going to help him succeed?

The Lions traded for Denver Broncos guard Manny Ramirez, a player who's been a strong run blocker for much of his career to shore up the left side of the line and replace Rob Sims who's managed to finish positively on PFF only one time in the last four years. Meanwhile, the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate will keep offenses from stacking the box and leaving huge spaces for the run game to exploit- as well as keep the offense moving down the field in a weak defensive division leading to longer possessions and more points scored. Finally, despite an injured and underwhelming set of RBs the Lions targeted them 148 times in the passing game, with a near even split between the injured Reggie Bush, Theo Riddick, and Joique Bell.

Should Abdullah take over, it's safe to assume that even split becomes heavily weighted in favor of the starter, just like it did in 2013 before Bush's injury gave Bell a chance to boost his own numbers. Even last year, Bush saw more targets than Bell despite playing nearly 400 less snaps speaking to how they view Joique's abilities in that area.

 

3. T.J. Yeldon - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 58th Overall, RB23

The Jaguars are not a bastion of offensive production but last year shouldn't be the end-all-be-all of fantasy projections for this year. There's plenty of excuses I'm about to list for why the Jaguars offense was as poor as it was, stemming from a line of injured receivers where all the starters were rookies, to a rookie QB, to a bad offensive line. Is it safe to assume that all of last years issues won't be present this year? I sure think so. This isn't the Blaine Gabbert jaguars that trotted out starting WRs like Mike Thomas and Laurant Robinson, it's a young team that actually shows promise and needs to take a step forward to deliver on it.

None of that changes that T.J. Yeldon going to be the starting running back right out of the gate and that he is talented enough to work behind a patchy offensive line. To the Jaguars credit, they signed former Dallas Cowboy Jeremy Parnell to play right tackle, turning the right side of their line into a run blocking strength and giving both Yeldon and Bortles the opportunity to show up this season. On top of that, despite the weaknesses at RB they also ran the ball 18th most in the league (with a committee of Denard Robinson, Toby Gerhart, and Storm Johnson), a number that should be going up now that they've drafted a back they consider to be their next featured star.

Yeldon's not going to blow up the world, game-flow should dictate that the Jaguars are behind often and that Yeldon sees multiple games with less than 15 carries, but that still doesn't mean he's looking like any less of a good bet to reach low RB2 value by the end of the season. Just don't expect him to carry your team.

 

Tier 2: Backups With Starter Potential - 2015 Rookie RB Redraft Rankings

4. Duke Johnson - RB, Cleveland Browns

ADP: 148th Overall, RB51

Unlike the Jaguars, the Cleveland Browns actually might have a top 5 offensive line this season with multiple strong run blockers on the line (specifically from LT to C). It's only because of how bad the Cleveland offense might actually be that Johnson ends up behind Yeldon, despite being able to outdo him if they were both on the same team (at least for the 2015 season). Not to mention, he still has the obstacle of Isaiah Crowell ahead of him, which none of the players above him have.

The Browns have suggested using Duke Johnson similarly to the way the Bengals use Giovani Bernard, a change of pace ball carrier utilized in the passing game. That's where Johnson almost gets into the first tier, as long as he's being given a chance to touch the ball on a team with no certainty at running back then the chances remain high for him to outproduce his ADP. It helps that Cleveland was 6th in rushing attempts last year, something they could repeat this year now that their stable of running backs looks even better.

 

5. Todd Gurley - RB, St Louis Rams

ADP: 53rd Overall, RB22

Todd Gurley's my number one dynasty ranked player from the 2015 class but that doesn't make him the top option in redraft leagues. Well, it would be if it was certain that he would be the week 1 starter for the Rams. Currently on track with recovery from his ACL, Gurley only recently was cleared to practice with the team but that doesn't say much for his chances of starting before week 4. The plan as it seems would be to let Gurley heal while Tre Mason takes the lead and then get eased in over time. That bodes well for his future, but not for his immediate returns.

There's still a chance Gurley returns this year playing at the high level he was supposed to, but it'd be a stretch to say it's expected. Although Jeff Fisher has a great history when it comes to giving young running backs the full load of carries (two former first round picks received over 200 touches as rookies, and even Zac Stacy handled the ball 276 times despite not starting until halfway through the year), it'd be foolish to assume he'll put someone recovering from a potentially career changing injury out on the field before their ready.

 

5. Matt Jones - RB, Washington Redskins

ADP: 234th Overall, RB73

I'm patting myself on the back for Matt Jones increasing hype and will be patting it again when he turns out to be a steal in this years draft. The Redskins staff no longer has connections to Alfred Morris, who's statistically been less and less effective as every year has passed and Jon Gruden has shown no remorse in pulling Morris from games entirely once the Redskins have fallen behind in favor of the pass catching back playing behind him.

Matt Jones will be that pass catching back in 2015, and potentially more as the Redskins have already expressed high amounts of praise and suggested Jones take some carries from Morris as early as week 1 of the regular season. Although it's probably stretching it to say he'll take the lead over Morris, a 50/50 split between the two with Jones also taking passing downs seems a lot more probable if Jones proves to be as effective as he was in college.

Last year, the the backup role on the Redskins was able to reach 38th in standard and 31st in PPR amongst RBs. Far from being valuable, those numbers are far better then the spot Jones is being drafted at and Helu wasn't nearly the same threat to steal carries from the incumbent. The Redskins offense and defense looks porous enough that being behind might be a common theme for the second year in a row and if that happens, Jones will just see more and more opportunities to steal carries away.

 

6. Tevin Coleman - RB, Atlanta Falcons

ADP: 87th Overall, RB34

Tevin Coleman is an incredible physical prospect, but as a football player there's a lot to be desired. His fit within the current Falcons zone scheme is what makes buying into his 2015 value so hard, especially when Devonta Freeman projects to be a much better player for it. Coleman's still bound to see touches but since he lacks any passing game value, so those touches are going to be limited to whatever Freeman leaves for him.

To make matters worse, the Falcons O-line is amongst the worst in the league. Coleman's on my personal avoid list for his price, but he still offers some potential to make an impact should the Falcons add some more power-oriented running plays into their playcalling for him. Kyle Shanahan's offenses have had no issue utilizing multiple backs and have gotten incredible seasons out of anyone who becomes the lead starter in them with players like Steve Slaton and the aforementioned Alfred Morris having great seasons, and even players like Isaiah Crowell and Roy Helu pulling off great stretches of games under his play-calling.

The value is there in the scheme and team for Tevin Coleman.

 

7. David Cobb - RB, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 135th Overall, RB44

David Cobb's received rave reviews over the offseason and it helps his case that the best to be said about frontrunner Bishop Sankey is that he's mediocre. The problem for Cobb comes in two areas: his passing game presence and Ken Whisenhunt.

David Cobb offers some receiving ability, but not the same all-around passing game abilities that Sankey can offer especially when it comes to pass blocking. With a potential franchise rookie QB under center, that's going to play a huge factor in who sees time. The bigger obstacle though is Ken Whisenhunt, who's been known throughout his career to let rookies ride the bench for weeks at a time before ever giving them a chance. First rounder Michael Floyd sat for nearly half the season, First rounder Beanie Wells split total season carries almost evenly with Tim Hightower, First rounder Taylor Lewan was left on the bench until injury forced him into the lineup, and Bishop Sankey himself was seldom used as Whisenhunt obsessed in interviews about "footwork" issues.

It's hard to imagine David Cobb escaping that same trap, even if he is a potentially better inside runner than Sankey. David Cobb also has the distinction of being the only backup RB who's being drafted over the starter, and personally, i'd rather grab take a shot on the starter keeping the job.

 

8. Cameron Artis-Payne - RB, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 213th Overall, RB63

I don't think it's particularly fair to put Cameron Artis-Payne up here but you can't just ignore that the player in front of him has suffered an injury almost every single year that's kept him out of play for weeks at a time. Although it's really hard to see Cameron Artis-Payne becoming a bellcow type even if Jonathan Stewart is out, he'll still see time and value should it occur as the leading player in a committee.

Even before that happens, Ron Rivera's team has never had an issue putting two RBs on the field (the DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert combo was a bane to fantasy owners for years). So in a way, this spot is kind of cheating since any of the players here gain a huge boost should injury occur- but Artis-Payne's situation bodes most likely to see it happen. On top of that, the Panthers face one of the easiest defensive schedules in the league (as does the rest of the NFC South) so there's only upside from here.

 

Tier 3: FLEX Touches - 2015 Rookie Running Back Redraft Rankings

9. David Johnson - RB, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 163rd Overall, RB55

Maybe Johnson should be up alongside Cameron Artis-Payne since his main competition also has a severe injury history, but I'd say that the signing of Chris Johnson probably puts a damper on David Johnson's chances of taking the lead role should something happen to Andre Ellington. Johnson's going to see the field this year because of his incredible receiving abilities (a result of him being a former wide receiver) but some questionable traits behind the line of scrimmage and with initiating contact make taking carries away from either Ellington or the other Johnson kind of questionable. It's likely the Cardinals saw that too when they set out to sign CJ2k to begin with.

Bruce Arians cardinals also don't see a lot of rushing attempts in general, spending the last two seasons stuck at 23rd and 24th amongst all temas in the league. Chances for David Johnson to crack value will have to come almost entirely off of running back targets, and the Cardinals have targeted RBs 100 and 111 times in the last two years with more than a third of the targets going to Andre Ellington. Johnson might help bring those target totals up, but those numbers put the Cardinals in the bottom quarter of the league for RB targets.

 

10. Karlos Williams - RB, Buffalo Bills

ADP: Undrafted

The Bills showered Karlos Williams with praise during the offseason with reports occasionally coming out saying that he might be able to take the #2 spot from Fred Jackson. Although that's still a possibility, him missing practice time is going to hurt his chances of overtaking the veteran (even if Jackson isn't practicing either). There's still a chance as the season goes onward though that Williams does take the #2 role, and as Rex Ryan's offenses have in the past ran the ball heavily, it only makes sense that those carries would involve some kind of split between LeSean McCoy and whoever is behind him (Rex has never shied away from splitting carries either). Williams was also a capable pass catcher in college which only helps his chances of seeing the field. Regardless, both players ahead of him have had some injury issues in recent years and are currently dealing with injuries, so Williams chances of seeing the field increases.

 

Tier 4: Waiting for Injury - 2015 Rookie Running Back Redraft Rankings

11. Jay Ajayi - RB, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 193rd Overall, RB59

Jay Ajayi is the only back in this section that separates from the rest of the group because unlike the rest of the group, he has the actual talent and skills to immediately produce should he be called on to as both a runner and a pass catcher. Although there's talk about his knee issues, should that not be a factor in his rookie year (and many pieces have mentioned it being more degenerative than immediate) then Ajayi would have little trouble replacing Lamar Miller or Damien Williams if either go down. He's currently third on the depth chart and the Dolphins have made it clear they want to rest him to allow his knee whatever recovery time it needs but if anything does happen to the backs further up the depth chart, it's doubtful that the Dolphins would still opt to hold back Ajayi when they look so close to being a playoff bound team.

 

12. Everybody Else, Assorted Teams

Jeremy Langford of the Chicago Bears, Javorius "Buck" Allen of the Baltimore Ravens, Mike Davis of the San Fransisco 49ers, Josh Robinson of the Indianapolis Colts, Marcus Murphy of the New Orleans Saints, and Kenny Hilliard of the Houston Texans.

None of these players are talented enough to overtake the players ahead of them (although there is a case to be made for Josh Robinson over Dan Herron), and they all figure as players who are expected to touch the ball less than 60 total times this season. Either left too far out on the depth chart or simply behind too many talented starters, these are guys that have no business being drafted and should only be monitored as waiver wire options.

 
 

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