RADIO
Week 9 of the NFL season is here. We're starting to see teams really separate into different levels in the league this year. The good are clearly at one level, and the rest of the league can beat each other on any given Sunday because they don't have the consistency to elevate to the next level. One major thing that has separated the best teams from the worst has been offensive line play which surprises absolutely no one.
Last week was a bit of a mixed bag for the column. Of the three quarterbacks in the sit column, two of the three finished as QB17 or worse, but Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields was QB5 on the week. In the start category, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff was close, but two of the team’s touchdowns were on short handoffs to a running back. All three of the starts of the week were QB13 or worse, with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith being our high of the week in that area.
Because the NFL doesn’t understand how to do bye weeks correctly, we have six teams that are off this week, so there are going to be some serious questions for fantasy players at quarterback this week. Additionally, this column comes out after Thursday Night Football, so we’ll be in an even tighter spot for player selection with just 24 of the league’s 32 starters to choose from. Seriously though, how hard is it to just put four teams on a bye every week you have them rather than weeks with two and six thrown in?
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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
Minnesota Vikings Pass Rush vs. Taylor Heinicke
Through two games, Washington Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke has been sacked just three times. However, he’s faced defenses that have struggled to generate consistent pressure this season in the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts. His offensive line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate at 8.8 percent, and they’ve allowed pressures on 24.8 percent of the team’s dropbacks, which is 25th in the NFL.
The Vikings are coming off of a win over the Arizona Cardinals, and they are playing some strong football right now. The Vikings are sixth in adjusted sack rate this season, and they’ve racked up 10 sacks over their last two games. Edge rusher Za’Darius Smith has already hit the first level of his incentives for sack bonuses, and he’ll be looking to add to that this week in a strong matchup.
Verdict: Sit 'Em
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass Rush vs. Matthew Stafford
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has shown some life over the past couple of weeks for quarterback Matthew Stafford, as he’s only been sacked three times in their last two games, after being sacked 21 times in their first five games. Despite that improvement, they still rank 22nd in the league in adjusted sack rate, and they’re last in the league when it comes to adjusted line yards in the running game. This team is struggling to run and pass block right now.
The major factor to watch in this game is how the Bucs defense plays without outside linebacker Shaquill Barrett (Achilles) who was lost for the season in their last game. Barrett was tied for second on the team with three sacks, and it will now be up to the rest of the defense to rally and fill his spot. This Bucs’ team was already beaten up, and they didn’t need another injury. They still rank second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and they’ll need all hands on deck to keep that high rating.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
New England Patriots Pass Rush vs. Sam Ehlinger
On a normal week, we’re probably not discussing Indianapolis Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Unfortunately for fantasy managers this week, you might not have a ton of options with players on the shelf with a bye. It’s not a great matchup for Sam either. The New England Patriots under Bill Belichick have been great against young quarterbacks, and, on the year, they’re fifth by DVOA against the pass compared to 27th against the run.
One thing they’ve done quite well this year is generate pressure that turns into sacks. They’re tied for fifth in sacks, and they’re 10th in adjusted sack rate. The best way to beat this Patriots defense right now is on the ground, which takes the ball out of Ehlinger’s hands. If they’re forced to pass though, he could be in for a long afternoon.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
Atlanta Falcons Pass Rush vs. Justin Herbert
Considering multiple wide receivers for Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert remain injured, this is probably foolish, but I don’t particularly care. The Atlanta Falcons remain the worst team in the league with an adjusted sack rate of 4.1 percent. Teams know they can pass on the Falcons, and they’re doing it a ton without ever getting sacked and punished for doing so. Additionally, they’re dealing with injuries in their secondary that makes life even easier on opposing quarterbacks.
As bad as the Falcons have been at sacking quarterbacks, Herbert has been equally as good at avoiding sacks, as he and the Chargers lead the NFL with an adjusted sack rate of just 3.6 percent. A big reason for that low sack total has been the volume of checkdowns that Herbert has thrown this season, but that still means he’s standing upright at the end of the play. He should have plenty of time to work this week.
Verdict: Start 'Em
Detroit Lions Pass Rush vs. Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn’t get his wish for a new pass-catcher at the trade deadline, although the team show some new life in their loss to the Buffalo Bills last week. If it weren’t for an abhorrent offensive pass interference call, they could have been driving for the win on their final possession. Now, he gets the Detroit Lions pass rush against his offensive line that features two of the league’s best pass blockers at their position in David Bakhtiari and center Josh Myers.
The Lions have struggled to generate a consistent pass rush this season. They’re 26th in adjusted sack rate at 5.5 percent, and they have totaled up just 11 sacks on the year. Green Bay’s offensive line has settled in after a rough start to the year. They’re eighth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and they’ve gotten better running the ball as well. If they can keep Rodgers clean, he could have a big week to right the team’s ship.
Verdict: Start ‘Em
Las Vegas Raiders Pass Rush vs. Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is operating in what is essentially his rookie season after the Urban Meyer experiment went horribly wrong. He’s seen strong moments of play mixed in with underwhelming moments in between. His offensive line has been doing their best to not be a problem as they rank sixth in adjusted sack rate this year with just 12 sacks allowed this season.
As for the Raiders, despite featuring Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones to lead their pass rush, they haven’t been getting after quarterbacks at the rate they would hope. They’re last in the league with just 9 sacks on the season, which makes them the only NFL team with fewer than double-digit sacks heading into Week 9. Jacksonville is likely to run the ball a fair bit in this matchup, but Lawrence should still be throwing a fair bit while also running for three touchdowns of his own over the last three weeks.
Verdict: Start 'Em
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