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Welcome to Week 21 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire pitchers. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.
Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help with all of the best streams for the week.
These fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups are for the week of August 29 – September 4, looking at players below ~50% rostered for ESPN, Yahoo!, or Fantrax. Rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, August 27.
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Know Your Scoring System
You know what I'm going to say, right? You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.
For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Trea Turner being a top-five hitter versus a top-25 hitter.
If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.
You'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system if you look above. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes, you can get away with some "close enough" calls, i.e. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.
Week 21: Waiver Wire Leaderboards
All charts are updated before Sunday's games, on stats and ownerships, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version. Players on overall leaderboards are ordered according to their current Roster% on Yahoo.
*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)
The 21-Day Leaderboard, Presented by Hansel
Overall Leaderboards
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Best Choices
Reid Detmers, LAA (vs HOU) - This might not look like a good matchup on paper, as Houston has been one of baseball's best offenses against left-handed pitchers, all season. But you could've said the same thing about his last matchup against Toronto, locking up the Blue Jays for five-plus shutout innings. Detmers now has a 1.97 ERA (2.60 FIP) since returning from the minors with a faster (and more dominant) slider and has just looked like a different pitcher. Houston is still dangerous (and Detmers still needs to get his walks under control) but a stream here wouldn't be the worst decision. However, even if you don't end up starting him, if Detmers is still on your waiver wire, he absolutely needs to be rostered.
Dean Kremer, BAL (vs OAK) - After a rough July, Kremer has turned things back around recently, posting a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts, picking up two Wins on the road in Toronto and Houston. Oakland, as you might have guessed, is nothing like the Blue Jays or Astros.
Aaron Civale, CLE (vs SEA) - Civale dominated Detroit in back-to-back starts upon his return from the IL but still found success in a much tougher matchup against the Padres, allowing 1 ER over 4.2 IP and striking out four. Seattle has been much worse in the second half vs RHP, ranking 26th in wOBA and 23rd in xwOBA.
Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs TEX) - We've gotten the good Pivetta lately, and in his most recent start, my fellow Nick struck out nine Orioles in 5.2 IP. A matchup with Texas isn't that scary, as the Rangers are 25th in wOBA and 24th in xwOBA vs RHP in 2022. And while Texas is up to 9th in wOBA in the second half, their xwOBA hasn't much budged, coming in at 23rd.
Alex Cobb, SF (vs PHI) - Cobb really shouldn't be rostered less than 50%, as he's been excellent all year, even if it took a little while for his ERA to catch up to his FIP. In 21 starts and 111 IP, Cobb has allowed more than 3 ER just three times, with one of those coming in Colorado. Philly has been running hot, ranking 6th in wOBA and 7th in xwOBA since the All-Star break but I'd still take my chance with the high floor of Cobb.
Cole Irvin, OAK (@ WSH, @ BAL) - Irvin entered his last start against the Marlins with a paltry 16.1% K% but still came out of it with 11 K over seven shutout innings. Because Miami. The crafty lefty will have a solid two-step in Week 21, going on a tour of the mediocre teams in our nation's capitol, with both Washington and Baltimore ranked in the bottom-10 of wOBA vs LHP in 2022.
Matt Manning, DET (vs SEA, vs KC) - Manning has been mostly terrific in his five starts since returning, allowing 1 ER or less in three of them. Seattle has struggled vs RHP in the second half, ranking 26th in wOBA and 23rd in xwOBA, while Kansas City is the same, old Kansas City they've been all year - a bottom-five offense, with a bottom-10 strikeout rate.
Austin Voth, WSH (vs OAK) - The Austin Voth renaissance (2.85 ERA over 53.2 IP since June) has a chance to continue taking on an Athletics offense that is 29th in wOBA and xwOBA vs RHP in 2022.
David Peterson, NYM (vs WSH) - When Peterson is in the rotation, he's usually been good, and get he'll get a soft matchup with a Washinton offense that is 24th in wOBA and 28th in xwOBA vs LHP since the All-Star break.
Marco Gonzales, SEA (@ DET) - Gonzales has allowed just one earned run in back-to-back starts, picking up wins over Cleveland and Oakland over 11.1 IP. In Week 21, he'll face one of baseball's worst offenses, as the Tigers are 24th in wOBA and 28th in xwOBA vs LHP in the second half.
James Kaprielian, OAK (@ WSH) - Kaprielian just got lit up by the Yankee for 8 ER in 2.2 IP but gets a much softer opponent in Washington, who's ranked 24th in wOBA and 25th in xwOBA in the second half.
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Next Choices
Spenser Watkins, BAL (@ CLE, vs OAK) - Starts against Oakland are almost always playable but Cleveland performs much better against RHP than LHP and has the league's lowest strikeout rate against them.
Jose Quintana, STL (vs CHC) - Stopping betting against the perfect marriage of Quintana's (clear) use of voodoo and Cardinals devil magic. Quintana has a 3.28 ERA (3.45 FIP) over his five starts as a Cardinal and takes on a Cubs team at home that are 28th in wOBA, 23rd in xwOBA, and 20th in K% vs LHP in the second half.
Jonathan Heasley, KC (@ DET) - Heasley has been solid in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks and White Sox, posting a 1.80 ERA (but 5.83 FIP) over 10 IP. That FIP might look dangerous but you know who's not? Detroit.
Max Castillo, KC (@ DET) - Castillo looks to keep his new career as a Royal going, getting one of the cushiest starts in baseball. Maybe you've heard; Detroit is terrible.
Trevor Rogers, MIA (vs TB) - Feeling lucky? The once excellent young pitcher for Miami returns from the IL in what is a decent matchup against a Tampa Bay offense that is 2nd in wOBA vs LHP in the second half. His struggles in 2022 are well documented but the stuff is still tantalizing, as evidenced by his dominant rehab start at Triple-A, striking out 12 batters over six hitless innings.
Rich Hill, BOS (vs TEX) - Hill turned back the clock in a victory over the Rays in his last time out, striking out 11 batters over seven shutout innings, walking one, and allowing just three hits. He picked up his second win in a row but takes on a Texas offense that ranks eighth in wOBA and xwOBA in the second half.
Justin Steele, CHC (@ TOR) - A matchup in Toronto isn't ideal but at some point, we have to give Justin Steele some credit, right? Steele has a 3.18 ERA (3.22 FIP) over 24 starts and 119 IP this season, with a 0.98 ERA (2.77 FIP) in his seven starts in the second half.
Zach Plesac, CLE (vs SEA) - Plesac gets a rematch with Seattle, this time at home, after picking up the win last time, allowing 3 ER over 7 IP, striking out six.
Domingo German, NYY (@ TB) - German has a 3.19 ERA over eight starts since returning on July 21 but also is working with diminished velocity, a .264 BABIP, and an 80% strand rate.
Dane Dunning, TEX (vs HOU, @ BOS) - If you know when Dunning's bad starts are coming, please let me know. But Houston (14th in wOBA) and Boston (15th in wOBA) have both been mediocre vs RHP in the second half, so maybe they won't come this week. Right???
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Desperate Choices
Jake Odorizzi, ATL (vs MIA) - Odorizzi can still be a viable starter vs bad teams and that's what he'll have in Week 21. He most recently took on the Marlins on August 12, allowing 2 ER over 4 IP.
J.P. Sears, OAK (@ WSH) - Sears has a 2.53 ERA over the past three weeks but it's backed by a 4.44 FIP and a 23.6% CSW% that is down three points from his yearly mark. Washington, however, struggles against LHP (and most everyone else), so a streamy Sears could be viable.
Erick Fedde, WSH (vs OAK) - He's unlikely to go more than five innings but facing a team that's even worse than his, Fedde will at least have a shot to pick up a Win bonus, something he hasn't done since June 21.
Dakota Hudson, STL (@ CIN) - I'm not one to trust mediocre pitchers in bandboxes but Hudson has been better of late and Cincinnati continues its death spiral.
Roansy Contreras, PIT (vs TOR) - Toronto is dangerous but Contreras is filthy and piles of K's are always on the table. But playing for Pittsburgh, getting a Win bonus probably isn't.
German Marquez, COL (@ CIN) - Like pretty much every other Colorado pitcher ever, Marquez is better on the road, with a 4.11 ERA compared to a 6.09 ERA at home. And while Cincinnati's home park is a bandbox, they're pretty bad against LHP, ranking 29th in xwOBA vs RHP in the second half.
Kyle Bradish, BAL (@ CLE) - Bradish was outstanding in his last start against the Astros, striking out six batters over eight shutout innings. The question is, is how long can the rookie survive on throwing 85% fastballs and sliders?
Cade Cavalli, WSH (vs OAK) - Considering he got blown up for 7 ER in his season debut, you're playing the pedigree and opponent here, as Cavalli is a top prospect and Oakland is a bottom-of-the-barrel offense.
Nick Lodolo, CIN (vs COL) - The rookie has been up-and-down in 2022 and takes on a Rockies team that has succeeded against LHP for most of the season, ranking 5th in wOBA and 10th in xwOBA.
Dylan Bundy, MIN (vs BOS, @ CHW) - Bundy has a 2.33 ERA (4.47 FIP) over his last four starts and gets a two-start week against two mediocre offenses. What could go wrong?
Michael Pineda, DET (vs KC) - If low ceilings, few strikeouts, and blowup possibilities are your deal, Michael Pineda v KC might be the stream for you.
Relief Pitchers Waiver Wire
Unless you're in a very deep league and/or have a lot of dedicated RP-only slots, most of the relievers you're going to want are the ones who are closers, have a chance to close, or are elite setup guys. I do mean elite because most scoring structures are weighted in a way that relievers almost necessarily have to get saves to be valuable. Although, long relievers whose usage you can reliably predict, can be useful in leagues with daily moves. But for a majority of leagues, sticking to closers is the way to go.
With that in mind, here are the best relievers on the wire for Week 21, ordered by Yahoo roster%:
Closers (and co-Closers) on the Wire
Tanner Scott, MIA
Kyle Finnegan, WSH
Wil Crowe, PIT
Jonathan Hernandez/Matt Moore, TEX
Hunter Strickland/Alexis Diaz, CIN
Jose Quijada/Jimmy Herget, LAA
Zach Jackson/A.J. Puk, OAK
Committees on the Wire
Ian Kennedy/Joe Mantiply, ARI
Matt Strahm/John Schreiber/Matt Barnes, BOS
Rowan Wick/Brandon Hughes, CHC
Hector Neris/Will Smith/Rafael Montero, HOU
Ron Marinaccio/Jonathan Loaisiga/Wandy Peralta/Lou Trivino
Andrew Bellatti/Jose Alvarado/Brad Hand, PHI
Luis Garcia/Adrian Morejon/Robert Suarez/Nick Martinez, SD
Colin Poche/Brooks Raley/Pete Fairbanks, TB
Random Save Chances O' the Week
All of the players who got a Save opportunity in Week 20 but aren't regular closers.
Noe Ramirez, ARI - Blew a Save on Wednesday
Dillon Tate, BAL - Save on Friday
Manuel Rodriguez, CHC - Save on Friday
Carlos Estevez, COL - Blew a Save on Friday
Bryan Abreu, HOU - Save on Tuesday
Dylan Coleman, KC - Blew a Save on Monday
Jaime Barria, LAA - Blew a Save on Wednesday
David Price, LAD - Blew a Save on Friday
Dylan Floro, MIA - Blew a Save on Friday
Matt Bush, MIL - Blew a Save on Friday
Mychal Givens, NYM - Blew a Save on Friday
Adam Ottovino, NYM - Save on Thursday, Save on Saturday
Andres Munoz, SEA - Save on Thursday, Blew a Save on Saturday
Shawn Armstrong, TB - Save on Monday
Jose Leclerc, TEX - Save on Friday
Brock Burke, TEX - Blew a Save on Tuesday
Trevor Richards, TOR - Blew a Save on Friday
Carl Edwards Jr., WSH - Blew a Save on Thursday
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