RADIO
Matt Fitzpatrick in Solid Form Heading to BMW Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick finished tied for 12th at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship and will now turn his focus to preparing for this week's BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri. Fitzpatrick has solidified his spot at the Tour Championship next week but will look to maintain his solid form before the final week of the FedEx Cup playoffs. So far this season, Fitzpatrick has three wins, 11 top-25 finishes, and one missed cut in 19 starts. Over the past 12 months, Fitzpatrick ranks in the 94th percentile in greens in regulation percentage on approach shots from 150-200 yards in the fairway. This could be important because Bellerive is over 7,400 yards long and could prove to be an important approach distance bucket this coming week.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Justin Thomas Needs a Big Week at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas posted a disappointing T47 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, losing more than 6.8 strokes combined off the tee and on approach, along with another 2.3 strokes putting. He now looks to bounce back at the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club, where he finished T6 at the 2018 PGA Championship. Success here will require distance off the tee and strong long iron play. Thomas ranks 62nd off the tee (+0.164 strokes per round) and 57th in driving distance, but just 114th on approach (-0.117) and 119th in proximity from 200+ yards. Where he has been elite is around the greens, ranking first on Tour (+0.618). With his irons continuing to be a concern, Thomas will need his short game and driving distance to carry him. He needs at least a solo seventh-place finish to have a chance at moving into the top 30 and advancing to next week's Tour Championship.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Jake Knapp Riding Strong Form Into the BMW Championship
Despite losing strokes with the putter, Jake Knapp put together a strong showing at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, finishing T7 and recording his second T13 or better result in his last three events. He now turns to the BMW Championship, where distance off the tee and long iron play could be pivotal. Knapp ranks 50th off the tee (+0.223 strokes per round), 19th on approach (+0.479), 15th in putting (+0.453), 16th in driving distance, and 50th in proximity from 200+ yards. After dealing with injuries for much of the last few months, Knapp enters the week 35th in the FedExCup standings and will need at least a three-way T16 to have a chance at moving into the top 30 and advancing to the Tour Championship. At $8,200 on DraftKings, Knapp offers strong value and has the upside to make another push.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Rickie Fowler Looking to Keep His Season Going at BMW Championship
Rickie Fowler gained more than 3.2 strokes on approach, but struggles off the tee and around the greens led to a T34 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He now turns to the BMW Championship at Bellerive, a course where he finished T12 at the 2018 PGA Championship. Success here should require distance off the tee and strong iron play. Fowler ranks 57th off the tee (+0.184 strokes per round) and 60th on approach (+0.206), but is just 92nd in driving distance and 67th in proximity from 200-plus yards. He has also found something with the putter, gaining strokes in four straight events after struggling on the greens earlier in the season. Sitting 30th in the FedExCup standings, Fowler is right around the cutoff for advancing to the Tour Championship and will need a solid showing to keep his season going.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Justin Rose a Solid Value Play at BMW Championship
Justin Rose struggled through most of the FedEx St. Jude Championship before posting a strong final round of six-under 64 to finish T39. He now looks to carry that momentum into the BMW Championship, an event he won in 2011. This year's tournament at Bellerive Golf Course should reward distance off the tee and strong long iron play. Rose ranks 108th off the tee (-0.071 strokes per round), but 16th on approach (+0.530) and 58th in driving distance. He has been average elsewhere, ranking 66th in putting (+0.087) and 102nd around the green (-0.063). His form has been inconsistent, but at just $6,800 on DraftKings, Rose offers solid upside in the value range due to strong ball striking and elevating his game in high-stakes events.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Alex Fitzpatrick Looking to Find His Putting Stroke at BMW Championship
Alex Fitzpatrick was on a heater after winning the Zurich Classic, but has struggled over his last four events, with a missed cut and three finishes of T61 or worse. Most of those struggles have come on the greens, where he has lost more than 19 strokes putting over that span. He remains elite off the tee, ranking 19th on Tour (+0.477 strokes per round) and fourth on approach (+0.742). Success at Bellerive will require strong driving distance and long iron play, two areas where Fitzpatrick excels. He ranks 33rd in driving distance and 24th in proximity from 200+ yards (47'1"). Fitzpatrick has a high-upside profile for this course, but his recent putting woes make him a risky play this week.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Russell Henley a Boom-or-Bust Option at BMW Championship
Russell Henley struggled with his irons at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, losing more than 3.9 strokes on approach on his way to a T30 finish. He now turns to the BMW Championship, where he has three straight finishes of T22 or better. Success at Bellerive should hinge on driving distance and long iron play. Henley ranks 38th off the tee (+0.299 strokes per round), 64th on approach (+0.181), and ninth in putting (+0.520). He is also the most accurate driver on Tour, but ranks just 153rd in driving distance and 153rd in proximity from 200+ yards (56'4"). Henley's precision and putting give him upside, but his lack of distance could hold him back at a course that favors longer hitters. At $8,400 on DraftKings, he profiles as more of a boom-or-bust option.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Collin Morikawa Could Be a Risky Play at the BMW Championship
Collin Morikawa could not find his stride at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, losing strokes off the tee and with the putter on his way to a T52 finish. He now looks to bounce back at the BMW Championship, where he has never finished better than T20 in seven appearances. This year's event at Bellerive Golf Course will reward driving distance and strong long iron play. Morikawa ranks 30th off the tee (+0.332 strokes per round) and first on Tour in approach (+0.822), but sits just 94th in driving distance and 91st in proximity from 200+ yards (50'9"). Morikawa had also found something with the putter, gaining strokes in five straight events before losing 4.1 last week. With his poor event history and lack of distance, Morikawa's upside may be limited this week.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Cameron Young Looking to Bounce Back at BMW Championship
Cameron Young struggled to get much going at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, losing strokes to the field and finishing T39. He now looks to bounce back at a course that should fit his strengths better at Bellerive Golf Course. Players who are long off the tee and strong with their long irons should find success, two areas where Young excels. He ranks 13th off the tee (+0.550 strokes per round), 21st on approach (+0.451), 17th in driving distance, and eighth in proximity from 200+ yards (45'8"). The big concern remains his putting, where he has lost strokes in five of his last seven events, including more than 8.2 strokes over his last two starts. At $9,400 on DraftKings, Young should be popular and offers plenty of upside if the putter cooperates.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Patrick Cantlay Hopes to Take Elite Iron Play to BMW Championship
As the PGA Tour cuts down to the top 50 in the FedEx Cup race, Patrick Cantlay needs to continue his run of solid form to make it to East Lake. At 42nd, he's got some ground to make up. His approach play is the main part of his game that's gotten him through the last couple of weeks, as he's averaged 1.7 strokes gained on approach over his last two starts. The 34-year-old is plenty serviceable off the tee, and his putter isn't giving up strokes like it was earlier in the year. The biggest question is whether he can make enough birdies to keep pace with a score that could reach almost -20 under. Cantlay is a safe play, but he doesn't have a clear ceiling for how well the week could go if everything else remains stagnant.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
It's Impossible to Trust Robert MacIntyre at BMW Championship
Before last week, Robert MacIntyre seemed to be trending in a nice direction. However, an opening round 82 at TPC Southwind and a subsequent withdraw leaves little hope of being a trustworthy DFS candidate this week. It was an abysmal week by all statistical measures, especially for a player who finished the season ranked 12th in strokes gained putting and 29th off the tee. Neither were working in Memphis, and with an even more limited field full of the seasons best players, it's an easy recommendation to fade the Scotsman in St. Louis.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Tom Kim Continues to Impress Ahead of BMW Championship
Things haven't slowed much for Tom Kim since his win a month ago. He's coming off his third straight top 20 finish, which included a T5 two weeks ago and a T12 last week in Memphis. The iron play has continued to gain three or more strokes per event, while becoming even more accurate off the tee. What's more intriguing is the putter that averaged 0.034 strokes gained this season has risen to an average of 0.328 since the beginning of June. It's also the main area that's kept him afloat the last couple of weeks. There is a chance that Bellerive could play a little too long for the South Korean. But, as the second-ranked player on tour in par-4 scoring average this season (3.95), he probably deserves as much consideration as anyone else this week.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Viktor Hovland Looking to Put Four Rounds Together at BMW Championship
Through the first two rounds last week in Memphis, Viktor Hovland looked like the one player set to keep pace with Scottie Scheffler. The Norwegian fired rounds of 68-64 to reach second place, but lost pace by going +4 over the weekend. He still managed to squeak out a top-20 finish, led by his iron play, but the rest of his game still proved to be somewhat unpredictable. His work on approach will aid him well at Bellerive this week, and his often-discussed short game isn't the liability it has been in the past. However, his success this week in St. Louis will be limited if he loses strokes off the tee as he has in three of his last five starts (two coming in the last two weeks). Hovland makes more birdies than most, especially on par-4s, so the ceiling is certainly as high as anyone if he keeps the driver under control.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Xander Schauffele Continues to Impress Ahead of BMW Championship
After a poor stretch through the middle of the year, Xander Schauffele has now recorded back-to-back top-10 finishes after his T7 in Memphis. The iron play and putting were the problem areas, but both have rebounded nicely, averaging 0.513 strokes gained putting and 0.843 on approach in his last three tournaments. If there were any lingering qualms heading to Bellerive this week for the two-time major champion, it would be in three-putt avoidance, where he ranks 108th this year. However, this week should be more heavily focused on making birdies than at TPC Southwind. Schauffele is still the caliber of player that could pop off at any tournament, which should grant him plenty of DFS viability come Thursday.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Tommy Fleetwood is Still a Great DFS Addition But His Ceiling Seems Limited
Like everyone else last week at TPC Southwind, Tommy Fleetwood couldn't make enough birdies to make up ground on the lead. It was the second event in his last three starts in which he's lost strokes on putting, and while he continues to post modest ball-striking numbers, they're not at the level needed to win. He continues to have some of the best hands around the greens, but an upcoming Bellerive Country Club may require lower scores than last week. That would limit the ability of Fleetwood's second-ranked strokes gained around the green, and the continued putting woes add to that fear. It isn't to say the 35-year-old is someone to avoid, but the ceiling is lower at a place that asks questions he hasn't been able to answer.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
