PGA Betting Advice: Honda Classic - Head-To-Head Selections

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best head-to-head plays for the Honda Classic.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-38-7), netting over 47 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 17 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and a 50/1 winner with Patrick Reed last weekend, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

***Another small card this week. I'm not a fan of forcing plays and only had two total wagers grade out as having better than a three percent edge.

Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: Justin Rose carries more name recognition than current form. The Englishman has failed to post a finish better than 28th place during his three PGA Tour starts in 2020 and has featured a paltry 57.22% GIR percentage in that time frame. I believe this play currently carries a three percent edge and will most likely move in the favor of Woodland as the week progresses.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Despite not loving Justin Rose for the Honda Classic, the 39-year-old still grades out better than one might expect. If you have noticed in the past, I don't love taking on anyone at the top of the betting board because that is typically where casinos correctly gauge the strength of their numbers best. I consider this wager to be more than a number grab, but I'd be careful in investing once the juice reaches -120 or higher, which I believe it will when you look at the popularity for both golfers on DFS sites for the week.

1.10 Unit to win 1.00

Last Week's Results:

1-0-0 (+1.15 Units)

We didn't have a massive separation in value between our premium and free head-to-head wagers last weekend, and it worked out favorably as far as this article is concerned. Paul Casey (+115) over Louis Oosthuizen was never in much danger down the stretch, and I think it is important because it shows that the picks in this article aren't just throwaways that carry no financial benefit. Our record raises to 11-8 for (+4.67 units) of profit for this piece and has arguably held its own against our premium plays so far in 2020.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:

11-8-0 (+4.67 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-3-1)

+6.29 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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