Overrated and Underrated College Basketball Teams - Reviewing the AP Poll For Week 3

November 21, 2023

Ryan's list of overrated and underrated CBB power rankings from AP, for 2023 NCAA college basketball teams for Week 3. Who are the most overvalued and undervalued college basketball teams after Week 2?

Feast Week has arrived, and with it comes the best week of the college basketball regular season. Before we can get to that action though, another week of the 2023-24 came and went, with quite a bit of movement in the AP poll. 

Two teams dropped from the rankings, as another pair entered the fold. Over 10 more experienced some mobility. That means there's definitely some underrated and overrated squads that are waiting to be called out.

Let's take a look at what programs fall under each of these categories for this week. All rankings listed are based on the Week 3 AP Poll.

Overrated College Basketball Teams For Week 3

Florida Atlantic: No. 10 -> No. 19

The darling of the 2023 tournament is off to a rocky start to begin their follow-up season. FAU dropped one at home to Bryant University this past week, who just had their head coach resign four days before the game. To make matters worse, the Owls were favored by a whopping 22.5 points. Dusty May's top two leading scorers from a season ago - Johnell Davis (13.8 points) and Alijah Martin (13.4 points) - have seen their numbers drop across the board. The AAC Co-Preseason Players of the Year are putting up 10.0 and 6.7 points respectively, with both shooting below 38%. Martin has been especially terrible, shooting 19% from the floor.  

This is still a talented team - remember, they returned five starters from a final four run a year ago - but their No. 10 preseason ranking was always too high. Even with their nine spot drop, this horrific loss should have caused them to slide out of the top 20 at the very least. Their next game against Butler also might be a bit tougher than expected.

Alabama Crimson No. 22 -> No. 17

Brandon Miller is gone, but the Crimson Tide still find themselves squarely in the mix of the top teams in college basketball. Credit to coach Nate Oats, who has made three straight NCAA tournaments and boasts a 95-41 record at the school since being hired from Buffalo in 2019.

Alabama has not lost yet this season, like many of the other members in the AP poll. Impressive right? Well, not really when you look at who they have faced. Not a single team on their schedule thus far has been ranked within the top 100 teams on KenPom. In fact, three of them are ranked outside the top 175 - Morehead State (200), South Alabama (176), and Mercer (249). It's true that the Crimson Tide have covered the spread in each game, but they haven't done enough to warrant a whole five-spot bump in the top 25. Up next are Ohio State and Clemson, which will be challenging matchups. I'm curious to see how they fare in those.

Underrated College Basketball Teams For Week 3

Mississippi State: Unranked -> No. 25

I've mentioned the Bulldogs multiple times in some of our other college basketball content, and they are now being recognized with a spot in the top 25. Chris Jans and Co. are 5-0 with convincing wins over three power conference squads - Arizona State, Washington State, and Northwestern. Now those aren't exactly blue bloods, but the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in these games. 

I think one of the main reasons they didn't leap a few more spots was because of how poorly they started against Northwestern. The Bulldogs scored three points in the first nine minutes,  going 1-10 to start until a Dashawn Davis three broke the seal. State went into the locker room down at the half, but outscored the Wildcats by 11 in the second period to win comfortably. Freshman Josh Hubbard is one of the best underclassmen in the country, putting up TWENTY-NINE on the Wildcats. He's going to become a household name by the end of the season. 

Kentucky Wildcats: No. 17 -> No. 16

I wrote all about the Cats in my Champions Classic recap, but I'm also putting them here because I was so thoroughly impressed with their performance against No. 1 Kansas. Justin Edwards and DJ Wagner (both top-five prospects in the ESPN 100) combined to shoot 1-18 from the field, and Kentucky controlled the game 75% of the time. Freshman PG Rob Dillingham was electric off the bench with 18 points and 3 assists in only 16 minutes.

Cal has taken a lot of flak in recent years for not living up to the program's expectations, and a lot of it is warranted. The Wildcats have flamed out in the tournament the past two years, one of those coming at the hands of No. 15 seed St. Peter's when Kentucky was a title favorite. If this game is any indication of how their season will go, I think the Cats will be alright. They have more than enough talent to go deep in March this year and are definitely one of the 15 best teams in the country.

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