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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season. Kevin's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is pick a team and have it win, but you can't choose the same team again.
All season long, I'll bring you weekly survivor pool advice for NFL teams to target and teams to avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2025 NFL season. We're ready to preview Week 3 now, with two data points and more information about each team to help guide you on your quest to win your survivor pool!
In Week 3, are we confident in the Indianapolis Colts? The Chiefs are 0-2, and are they sunk already? We can't overreact, but we also have to take into account these starts from all 32 teams. If you took the Rams last week, they gave people a scare, but still came out with a win. Let's get some boilerplate stuff out of the way before diving right in with our picks for Week 3 of the NFL season.
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Survivor Pool Tools and Resources
Love survivor pools as much as we do? Of course you do. Be sure to check these out:
Survivor Picks Tool
Optimize your weekly picks and plan your future picks with our free new Survivor Pool Picks Tool!
Survivor League Guide
For detailed Survivor Pool strategy and tips to help you win, check out our "How To Win Your Survivor League" guide!
Implied Point Totals, Point Spreads, and Over/Under Totals for Week 3
Before jumping into the picks for Week 3, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with implied point totals, point spreads, and over/under totals from betting markets. All implied totals come courtesy of FantasyLabs each week.
Now, let's look at the survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 3.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets
Tampa Bay gets to be back home and hosts a Jets team that's reeling heading into Week 3 after losing quarterback Justin Fields to a concussion on a fourth-quarter sack in their blowout loss against the Bills.
The Buccaneers are 7.0-point favorites at home against the Jets, who will start veteran signal-caller Tyrod Taylor as Fields cannot suit up in Week 3. Taylor is no picture of health, either; he's coming off arthroscopic knee surgery that led him to miss the entire preseason.
The 2-0 Buccaneers have won close games against some of the mid-range teams in the league, like the Falcons and Texans on Monday Night Football, but the Jets are nothing close to either. They're a work in progress with new head coach Aaron Glenn as the team tries to establish a new identity and culture.
It's hard enough for the Jets with Fields at quarterback to match the offensive firepower of the Buccaneers; imagine having to do that with Taylor. I'm taking Tampa Bay this week as it has little future value, with two matchups against the Saints and a home date with Carolina in Week 18, where you would feel comfortable starting the Bucs.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns
The Packers legitimately look like world-beaters right now and are on a Super Bowl trajectory. The Browns just got trounced by the Baltimore Ravens, 41-17, and are on a "how soon after Week 18 do we want to get a tee time?" trajectory.
Normally, we want to save these elite teams for later in the season, but the Packers have a bunch of iffy games in the second half of their season. After Week 12, the Packers' schedule features games on the road at Denver, at Detroit, at Chicago, and at Minnesota, as well as home dates with Baltimore, Chicago, and Minnesota.
Green Bay is the second-largest favorite of the Week 3 slate as it is favored by 8.5 points over the directionless Browns, who have the lowest implied point total of all teams this season with just 16.75 points.
That total is based on the strength of Green Bay's stellar defense combined with Cleveland's general ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball. The Packers are fifth in offensive AND defensive EPA per play, clicking on all cylinders, while the Browns are third-worst in EPA per play on offense.
My thought is this: let everybody eliminate themselves getting cute with matchups, and if you don't want to take the Buccaneers, the Packers represent one of the best bets for this week.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 3
Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints
Seattle is going to be one of the widely utilized teams in survivor pools this week, and why shouldn't it be? It is a 7.5-point favorite at home against the 0-2 New Orleans Saints.
That said, the Seahawks haven't looked that great as a 1-1 team that lost in Week 1 to the San Francisco 49ers and had to come back in the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers to close out a win. While future value in survivor pools does factor in here, the straight-up matchup between the Seahawks and Saints doesn't give me any confidence in Seattle to put my season on the line.
There's just too much volatility here to have any sort of faith in Seattle, which has been very hit or miss on offense despite fielding a quality defense that is 12th in defensive EPA per play. On the offensive side, the Saints and Seahawks are 16th and 17th, respectively, in EPA per play on offense.
That is a testament to the improvement head coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Spencer Rattler have shown this season. It's likely to be a very close game in Seattle in Week 3, but given what we've seen of both teams, I'm steering clear of this one.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants
The Chiefs are as bad as it gets right now, with the team 0-2 for the first time in Patrick Mahomes' tenure as starting quarterback. Their receiving corps is decimated, but they have the possibility of getting Xavier Worthy back for Week 3. Their run game is in shambles, and somehow, they are a 6.5-point favorite on the road against a Giants team that was airing it out to the tune of 531 air yards in their loss against the Dallas Cowboys. What part of this equation makes us feel confident in the Chiefs?
Kansas City is just 24th in defensive EPA per play through two games and 14th on offensive EPA per play. While it has had a go at it against the Chargers in Brazil and then at home against the Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch, there hasn't been anything to hang your hat on that makes this season's iteration of the Chiefs something where you can risk your survivor pool on a Week 3 matchup against the Giants.
I feel disrespectful to the Giants here by making it all about the Chiefs, but the Giants could be primed to upset the Chiefs and really get people talking. I wouldn't be surprised, and because of that, I'm hands off the Chiefs in Week 3.
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