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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season. Kevin's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
With just three short weeks left in the NFL and three HUGE weeks for survivor pool gamers, welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 16! If you've survived this long, you've done incredibly well! However, the work isn't finished just yet. Even with a full 16-game slate, it's an incredibly tough slate if you've used a lot of the favorites.
The chalk teams did very well for themselves, as the Jacksonville Jaguars crushed the New York Jets, 48-20, the San Francisco 49ers beat the Titans, 37-24, and the Philadelphia Eagles blanked the Las Vegas Raiders, 31-0, in a game that was over almost an hour before the afternoon games kicked off. It was a clean Week 15 for the most part, but can Week 16 keep that going?
All season long, this article will guide you through weekly survivor pool advice for each NFL week, including a handful of teams to target and several to avoid. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, so we'll help dissect each pick, with all angles accounted for. We'll be previewing Week 16 of the NFL season through a survivor pool lens, with more information and data points about each team to help guide you on your quest to win your survivor pool!
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Survivor Pool Tools and Resources
Love survivor pools as much as we do? Of course you do. Be sure to check these out:
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Survivor League Guide
For detailed survivor pool strategy and tips to help you win, check out our "How To Win Your Survivor League" guide!
Implied Point Totals, Point Spreads, and Over/Under Totals for Week 16
Before jumping into the survivor pool picks for Week 16, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with implied point totals, point spreads, and over/under totals from betting markets. All lines come courtesy of FantasyLabs each week.
Let's check out our survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 16!
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 16
Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders
*My top pick for Week 16*
Last week, we had our first 14-point favorite with the Seattle Seahawks and the Indianapolis Colts duking it out in Philip Rivers' first NFL game since 2021. That game was much closer than anybody anticipated, even if the Seahawks did prevail at the end to win, 18-16. We probably won't have much of a fight put up in this game as the Houston Texans host the Las Vegas Raiders.
This game combines the highest point spread (14.5) by a team this season with the Texans favored by over two touchdowns. It also features the Raiders with a season-low 11.5 implied point total. This Week 16 matchup might be the biggest layup you'll have this season, and the Texans are as close to a lock as it gets. They should be more than capable of shutting down anything the Raiders throw at the Texans on offense.
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets
If you don't have the Houston Texans available, you likely have the New Orleans Saints available in your survivor pool among the remaining teams. And while that is stomach-churning for anybody reading this, they at least get a game at home with the most stomach-churning franchise in the NFL this season: the New York Jets.
The New Orleans Saints host the Brady Cook-led Jets as a 4.5-point favorite in Week 16. With Jets head coach Aaron Glenn announcing Cook as the starter in this game, it ensures that the Saints become a realistic option for survivor pool players. You have to plug your nose and take some not-so-savory teams at some point in your season, and the Saints have a nice matchup against one of the worst teams in the NFL by any metric.
Shough to Olave! @Saints tie it up late
CARvsNO on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/kkzQ8FDNkP
— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2025
At least the Saints and Tyler Shough have shown an ability to move the ball, unlike the Jets. The Saints are also 10th in EPA per play allowed on the season, with a sterling third-best EPA per play allowed against the run.
The Jets will need Cook to sling the ball to have a shot in this game, and on the road against the Saints, I don't think they have it in them. New Orleans is a clear (albeit uneasy) contrarian pick for survivor, but again: you need to eventually use these kinds of teams!
Other Survivor Picks in Consideration:
- Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS)
- Buffalo Bills (at CLE)
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
This one includes a recent development at the time of this writing, as Quinn Ewers was named the starting quarterback of the Miami Dolphins, likely benching Tua Tagovailoa for the rest of the 2025 season now that they are eliminated. I'm not seeing this as a net positive or negative; of all the quarterbacks in the NFL that the Dolphins could have started, Ewers is definitely one of them.
The line for the Cincinnati Bengals moved from being a 2.5-point favorite to 5.5 points with the quarterback shakeup. I'm just here saying that it's hard to trust either team in this game, but especially the Bengals. Cincinnati is the SIXTH-biggest favorite of the entire Week 16 slate, which should tell you how tough this week is going to be if you don't have any of the major favorites available to you in survivor.
I would not want to touch this game with a 10-foot pole, given that neither team has any playoff implications on the line here. The fact that the Bengals have an implied point total of 26.5 -- the second-highest implied point total of the entire Week 16 slate -- is wild!
The fact that the Bengals have an implied point total of 26.5 points is WILD to me.
That 26.5-point total is the SECOND-HIGHEST of all Week 16 teams (Lions are first at 29.25)
Yes, the same Bengals that were shut out at home 24-0 by the Ravens three days ago.
— Kevin Tompkins (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social) December 17, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Obviously, the huge news that Patrick Mahomes is out for the season has reverberated around all football circles. What does that do for the now-eliminated Kansas City Chiefs?
Well, it's games that don't matter. Gardner Minshew II takes over for the Chiefs in their final trio of games, starting on the road in Tennessee against the Titans. In what seems pretty inconceivable, the Chiefs are only a 3.5-point favorite on the road in Tennessee.
Derwin James calls game ‼️ pic.twitter.com/Gk2w72ndE6
— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025
While the Titans have proved time and time again that they are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, I'm not making the bet that the name value of the Chiefs is going to propel them to a win just because they are who they are. Minshew is an incredibly volatile starting quarterback across his numerous stops in Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, and now in Kansas City.
With Minshew's 17-29 career record as a starter on a team whose running back production has been dubious, to be nice about it, the Chiefs may struggle here. The time to use the Chiefs in survivor was when Mahomes was at the helm, not with a backup quarterback in the first of three meaningless games.
Steer clear of the Chiefs for this game, as well as their home game against Denver in Week 17 and their road game with the Raiders in Week 18.
Other Survivor Picks to Avoid:
- Detroit Lions (vs. PIT)
- San Francisco 49ers (at IND)
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