RADIO
Week 4 of the NFL season is here. We’re continuing to roll on and find ways to win some money on this league that remains unpredictable from one week to the next. The New York Giants and Chicago Bears are a combined 4-2 while the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts have three wins between the four of them. Regardless of that, it’s important to stay focused and locked in as we move forward.
Week 3 was a bit of a mixed bag for us after a strong Week 2. If you took each play for one unit, you ended up in the green, but it was tough to have the two losses that we came away with, especially considering we were a dropped Matt Milano interception away from another 4-1 week. We’re up on the year, and we can keep building that bankroll as the season goes along and we get even more dialed in.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4
O89.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb picked up this season right where he left off last year. Through three games, he has 62 carries for 341 yards which translates to 5.5 yards per carry. With quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center, they’ve been content to ride Chubb to victory, and, if it weren’t for an epic collapse in Week 2, they’d be undefeated heading into Week 4. Chubb has cleared this mark in two of his three games thus far, and the lone exception saw him finish three yards shy while also being the only game he failed to see 20 or more carries. When he gets the workload that he should, he can crush this line.
In Week 4, he draws the Atlanta Falcons that are coming off of their first victory of the season, but they continue to have a lot of room to grow on both sides of the ball. They’re allowing an average of 4.5 yards per carry while ranking 27th by DVOA against the run. The Browns should be able to move the ball effectively in this matchup, and, as long as they don’t fall behind early, they’ll be getting the ball to Chubb to work the clock as the game rolls on.
O282.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -125
This line had a little bit more juice on it than the lines I’m usually looking at, but it was too good for me to not take it. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been cooking through three weeks, and he is quarterbacking a team that has yet to establish any semblance of a consistent running game other than having him run his huge frame into a mass of bodies. Allen has passed for 297 or more yards in all three games thus far, and he would have cleared 300 in Week 1 if they hadn’t blown the doors off of the Los Angeles Rams.
The Baltimore Ravens dealt with health issues all of last season, and they haven’t fully bounced back yet. In three games, they have yet to hold an opposing quarterback under 300 yards despite facing Joe Flacco, Tua Tagovailoa, and Mac Jones. They surprisingly rank 15th by DVOA against the pass, but they haven’t been stopping anyone. Without a consistent running game, even if the Bills run up the score, they’ll have done it with Allen’s arm rather than with their running backs.
O70.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -114
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown has been the focal point of his team’s passing attack through their first three games, as he leads the team in targets, yards, and receptions while being tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. Brown has missed this mark just once in three games, and he missed it by two yards when the Eagles were just burning clock after shutting down the Minnesota Vikings. In a competitive game, he would have gotten there without issue.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are ranked seventh against the pass by DVOA, and they just shut down the Los Angeles Chargers last week. The main issue with using that simple comparison is the offensive line along with the rib injury that was limiting quarterback Justin Herbert last week. The Chargers rank near the bottom of the league in nearly every blocking category while the Eagles are at least an average to really good blocking offensive line. Brown is a mismatch against whatever cornerback the Jaguars put in front of him, so, as long as quarterback Jalen Hurts has time, he’ll be peppering Brown all afternoon in what is shaping up to be a great game.
A.J. Dillon
O12.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: Caesars
Odds: +100
This pick is largely based on what I’m expecting the game script to be. With quarterback Mac Jones (ankle) out, the Patriots are rolling with Brian Hoyer as the starter for the week. With that in mind, I think Green Bay could absolutely roll the Patriots in this game. If that happens, I would expect a heavy dose of A.J. Dillon. He hasn’t really gotten rolling yet early this season, but this is a get-right spot for the third-year running back.
The Patriots rank 29th against the run by DVOA, and they haven’t faced a murderer’s row of opponents, as the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers all rank 12th or worse on the ground. That doesn’t sound that bad, but the gap between the 12th-place Steelers and 7th-place Packers is 8.5 points. Green Bay is the better team on both sides of the ball, and they should be able to get Dillon involved a decent amount in Week 4.
Travis Etienne
O2.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: Caesars
Odds: +100
The final prop of the week belongs to Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne and his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. Through three weeks, the Eagles are giving up an average of six receptions per game to opposing running backs. Etienne only has 10 targets on the year, but we’re counting on the game-script forcing him to get an increased workload as the game rolls on and they try to keep pace with the high-flying Eagles.
The Eagles are fourth in DVOA on offense, and they’ve scored 24 points in the first half of each of their first three games. The Jaguars have done plenty of scoring of their own over the first three weeks of the season, and this game could have sneaky shootout potential if they get rolling early on. Etienne could see a heavier workload than we’ve seen him get so far, so this number is getable for him, especially after clearing in each of the last two wins for the Jags.
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