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The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.
Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season. Week 10 both opened and closed with two of the clunkiest offensive showings of the season, as the Broncos beat the Raiders 10-7 on Thursday night and then the Eagles took down the Packers by the same score on Monday night. Two other matchups on Sunday also ended with identical final scores, as the Seahawks rolled past the Cardinals 44-22, and the Lions dominated the Commanders by the same score.
The Bills were featured as the top pick last week, and they were thoroughly outplayed by the Dolphins from the jump, losing 30-13. Looking ahead to Week 11, we have two titanic matchups in the NFC headlining the slate, with the 7-2 Seahawks meeting the 7-2 Rams on Sunday afternoon, followed by the Lions traveling to Philadelphia to cap the day on Sunday Night Football.
Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 11.
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Week 11 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.
15 - New England vs. New York Jets
Week 11 kicks off with another AFC divisional matchup. The Jets somehow won their second game of the season in Week 10 versus the Browns, with Justin Fields completing just six passes for 54 yards, including a screen that Breece Hall housed for a 42-yard touchdown. The Patriots are coming off back-to-back close games against AFC South opponents and will look to stamp themselves as the first team to reach nine wins in the NFL this season. Second-year QB Drake Maye will aim to keep building his MVP case and take care of business against the team he made his NFL debut against, which was also on Thursday night in Week 3 last season.
Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency through Week 10, min 150 dropbacks @Unexpected_Pts pic.twitter.com/46MGgxKPjN
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) November 12, 2025
14 - Baltimore at Cleveland
Lamar Jackson has returned, and all feels right again in Baltimore. Jackson missed practice on Wednesday, but it doesn't seem to be a concern. The defense is playing much better after a horrendous start to the year, allowing 14.5 points per game over its last four games. And the Browns lost a game in typical Browns fashion. Since 1950, teams were 225-0 when holding opponents to 175 yards or less and not committing any turnovers, per ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini. That record is now 225-1 after Cleveland lost to the Jets in Week 10.
13 - Houston at Tennessee
Speaking of miraculous feats, the Texans were down 29-10 entering the fourth quarter last week against the Jaguars. Backup quarterback Davis Mills and the Texans offense overcame that deficit to score 26 unanswered points and win 36-29. It looks like Mills will be in line to make his second start of the season with C.J. Stroud still in concussion protocol. The Titans, meanwhile, are off their Week 10 bye and have lost five of their past six meetings with the Texans.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 11 Pick 'Em Pools
12 - Green Bay at New York Giants
Brian Daboll is out as Giants head coach after their fourth loss in which they were ahead by 10 or more points this season, and after rookie QB Jaxson Dart has been evaluated for a concussion four times in seven games. Jameis Winston is in line to make his first start of the year, which is always a treat to watch. Green Bay has now dropped two home games in a row, scoring a combined 20 points as the offense is stuck in the mud. Teams with an interim head coach often get a temporary bump, and we'll see if that helps the Giants hand the Packers their third regular-season loss in a row for the first time since the 2023 season.
11 - Atlanta vs. Carolina
Atlanta has now dropped four games in a row since its statement win in Week 6 against the Bills on Monday night, including a 24-23 loss at New England after a missed extra point and a 31-25 overtime loss against the Colts last week in Berlin. The Panthers fell 17-7 at home last week to the then-1-8 Saints, led by rookie QB Tyler Shough, who was making his second career start. Bryce Young has played at a bottom-3 QB level this season, but arguably the best game of his career came at Atlanta in Week 18 last season.
BRYCE YOUNG HAS 5 TDs.
PANTHERS LEAD FALCONS.
📺: #CARvsATL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/JUaVUCnPE4— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2025
The 2025 Carolina Panthers are now the 24th team since 1960 to start 5-5 through 10 games with a point differential of -45 or worse, according to Stathead. Only three of those teams made the playoffs, with the most recent being the 2010 Seahawks. They famously won the NFC West with a 7-9 record and then upset the Saints in the Wild Card round, highlighted by Marshawn Lynch's legendary "Beast Mode" run.
10 - Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville
Justin Herbert deserves more MVP buzz than he is currently getting for continuing to put the Chargers offense on his back with a makeshift offensive line. And the Los Angeles defense is starting to round back into form as well, with three of its four best games by EPA/Play coming in the last three weeks after getting shredded by the Colts in Week 7. Jacksonville is coming off a horrible loss, blowing a 19-point fourth-quarter lead.
THE @JAGUARS WIN. SIMPLY UNBELIEVABLE.#SuperWildCard #LACvsJAX pic.twitter.com/OQGu34T6QI
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2023
In the five other games this season where a team blew a fourth-quarter lead of 14 or more points (BAL @ BUF in Week 1, TEN @ ARI and DEN @ PHI in Week 5, NYG @ DEN in Week 7, and NYJ @ CIN in Week 8), only the Ravens won in their next game. Additionally, the last time these two teams met was in the 2022 AFC Wild Card game, where the Chargers blew a 27-point lead.
9 - Miami vs. Washington (Madrid)
What a fun one for the first NFL game in Spain. Two Hawaiian QBs face off, with Marcus Mariota filling in for an injured Jayden Daniels (elbow) against Tua Tagovailoa. Washington is on a historically bad four-game stretch, losing all four games by 21 or more points for the first time in an NFL season since 2002. The defense is a total trainwreck and has been ravaged by injuries.
Miami is coming off one of the more surprising outcomes of the season, dominating the Bills from start to finish in a 30-13 win. Mike McDaniel should be able to call whatever plays he wants against this version of the Commanders defense.
Although head coach Dan Quinn is taking over as the defensive play-caller, things will likely remain pretty similar. The last time Washington played an international game came in 2016, when it tied the Bengals 27-27. And the Dolphins last played overseas in 2023, losing 21-14 to the Chiefs.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 11
8 - Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay
Both teams are coming off losses to AFC East opponents. Buffalo is fresh off one of the worst losses since Josh Allen became the starter in 2018, losing 30-13 at Miami. They have typically bounced back after these bad losses. The Bucs have only played three times at Buffalo in franchise history, losing all three.
7 - Dallas at Las Vegas
This matchup is one of three interconference games this week and will be the Cowboys' second straight game on Monday Night Football, losing at home against the Cardinals in Week 9 before their Week 10 bye. The Dallas offense has hit a wall in its past two games after dropping 44 points on Washington in Week 7, ranking 28th in EPA/Play (-0.146), per RBSDM.com. Only the Broncos, Steelers, Titans, and Jets have been worse. The last time these two teams played was on Thanksgiving in 2021, with the Raiders winning 36-33 in overtime.
RAIDERS WIN! RAIDERS WIN!
📺: #LVvsDAL on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/eBC9rcrcQA— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2021
6 - Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
We got an instant classic the last time these teams faced off in Week 7 on Thursday Night Football, with Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco going blow for blow. Cincinnati is off its bye week, while Rodgers is coming off one of the worst games of his storied career in Week 10 at the Chargers. In what is shaping up to be a tight AFC North race and Bengals star QB Joe Burrow (toe) seemingly close to returning, this is a pivotal matchup.
FLACCO DIME TO HIGGINS WHO MAKES A HIGH IQ PLAY 🔥
PITvsCIN on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/5kbBK0eoaO— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2025
5 - Kansas City at Denver
Kansas City got handled by Buffalo the last time we saw it play in Week 9, while Denver is riding its elite defense to an 8-2 record, and the offense continues to struggle. Patrick Mahomes has a 13-1 record as the Chiefs starting QB against the Broncos for his career, with his only loss coming back in Week 8 of the 2023 season. Head coach Andy Reid is strong off a bye week as well, with a career 22-4 record.
4 - San Francisco at Arizona
Both teams have been operating without their Week 1 starting QBs for most of the season in this game. Both teams were also routed by the class of the NFC West in Week 10, the Rams and Seahawks. Brock Purdy (toe) is trending to return on Sunday after missing six consecutive games. Mac Jones has filled in admirably in his absence, and the Cardinals have opted to roll with veteran Jacoby Brissett with Kyler Murray on injured reserve. The 49ers have a nice three-game stretch after this game to pad their win total and boost their playoff odds, facing the Panthers, Browns, and then the Titans after their Week 14 bye.
3 - Minnesota vs. Chicago
Chicago has been rolling on offense since its Week 5 bye, ranking fifth in EPA/Play (0.173). The J.J. McCarthy experience in Minnesota isn't going great outside of a couple of quarters of decent football. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, however, have been very interesting lately.
After blitzing at a 40% rate or higher once in their first five games, Flores has dialed up the pressure and blitzing 40% or more in each of the past four contests. Three of those games rank in the top 11 single-game blitz rates this season, per NFL Pro. Caleb Williams owns a 0.21 EPA/Play, sixth highest, and eight touchdowns to no interceptions against the blitz this season.
2 - Detroit at Philadelphia
One of two heavyweight battles in the NFC this week will take center stage on Sunday Night Football. We didn't get to see these teams face off last season in the regular season or playoffs as the top two seeds in the NFC. Dan Campbell has taken over the play-calling duties for Detroit, and it looked unstoppable against a bad Washington defense last week. But it faces a much stiffer test against this Philadelphia defense.
#Lions HC Dan Campbell wants the Eagles’ tush-push to stay legal:
“I’m a purist. You take something out of the game, then we’re taking the next thing out of the game, and pretty soon we don’t have pads anymore. Then pretty soon you’re only playing 30 minutes. … They’ve got a… https://t.co/KCC7WZgi5f pic.twitter.com/kkVN06Pggi
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 12, 2025
1 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle
This is likely the most anticipated matchup of the week, with Matthew Stafford playing at an MVP level going up against a Seattle defense that has looked outstanding of late. And on the other side, the Rams defense will have its hands full trying to contain what has been the most lethal QB-WR combination in football in Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Rams have scored 111 points with a +64 point differential in their past three games, while the Seahawks have scored 109 points with a +54 point differential in their last three. Sean McVay vs. Mike Macdonald. There are plenty of great storylines for this one.
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