Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 8 - Bhayshul Tuten, Jaylen Warren, more

October 31, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 8 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

It's not hyperbole when I say that this is my favorite article to write every week during the NFL season. You might think I would say that just to suck you into an analysis laden with charts and graphs and a bunch of stats, but it's the truth. It's high praise for the article content because we are now in basketball season, and you know I love writing about fantasy hoops, too!

I did a good bit of extra research this week as I felt like this slate demanded it. I think there's a good argument for at least half the running backs on this main slate, which makes it a fun slate where rostership should be spread out more. That's awesome for tournament players, and playing GPPs is something I find myself doing more as the season goes along. Maybe I just get bored of cash games and trying to figure out who everyone else is playing all the time; I don't know.

Let's see if we can figure out who we want to use in our lineups this week, shall we? Also, don't forget that this analysis and the data I collect can be applied to prop betting, too! You'll definitely find some of these players in my betting content as well. Alright, let's get into the Week 8 matchups already!

Week 8 Running Back Matchups

Back for Week 8, these are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both PFF and the DVOA ratings found at FTN. We now have SEVEN weeks of data, and larger sample sizes make our data more reliable and predictable over time.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, offensive schemes, projected role and usage, the quality of their opponent, and then taking an educated guess at the projected game script for each back this week.

The Big 3 Expensive Backs

• Jahmyr Gibbs ($9.5K DK, $9.3K FD)
• Kenneth Walker III ($8.8K DK, $9.0K FD)
• Bijan Robinson ($8.5K DK, $8.8K FD)

Walker is the only one who actually makes the top third of the ratings this week. You can make the argument that Gibbs and Robinson are matchup-proof. But this is an incredibly strong group of backs this week in good matchups, so I'm considering fading one or both. I'll focus my analysis on the cheaper backs in better spots (but we will circle back to Walker).

We Need More Data!

This is the first week of the season where the top eight spots in the ratings are all from the Sunday main DFS slate. So I wanted to dig into some additional data to see if we get a few backs to separate themselves.

If you don't want to deploy a Rams or Jets back because of their projected usage split (welcome back, Breece Hall!), we can rule out Blake Corum and Braelon Allen. But I still pulled their data anyway, and I bet you could play either one of them at like 5% rostership or lower.

Some important definitions for the stats used.

• EPA/Rush = Expected Points Added Per Rushing Attempt
• YBC/Att = Yards Gained BEFORE Contact Per Rushing Attempt
• YaCo/Att = Yards Gained AFTER Contact Per Rushing Attempt
• Explosive Run Rate = Percentage of running plays where the defense allows 10+ yards

So, despite Corum's elite analytics on a per-carry basis, the Chargers matchup didn't grade out as well as we probably hoped. You're relying on a game script where the Rams lead throughout and are able to get the ball enough for Corum to get 12-15 touches and a touchdown.

It happened last week, and it could certainly happen again. But it's not that big of a smash spot for me to push him into the top 4-5 options.

Allen's matchup is tremendous, but we have no way to know what his touches look like this week with Breece Hall back. The Jets haven't been opening big holes for Allen, but the Raiders' run defense is easily the worst unit in yards before contact.

With his ability to break tackles and break off big runs (look at those numbers and the Raiders' explosive run rate), he'd have easily been the top play this week if he were expected to get the kind of workload that we saw with Hall out.

To further complicate matters, the Raiders are dead last in DVOA to backs as receivers, which makes Hall look like a pretty play in his own right if we think he gets 4-5 targets in the passing game. The real question for both players is, "Do we think the Jets offense is good enough to produce a usable result from both backs?"

This is where things fall apart a bit; this isn't like the Rams situation where we can reasonably expect 24+ points and 350+ yards of offense. It's an adventure every week for New York, but this is a darn good spot.

Last but not least, this confirms that Kenneth Walker III is in a very good bounce-back spot after getting shut down by Seattle last week. We all remember him ripping off huge runs against the Broncos in Week 1, and his big performance in that game is certainly partially responsible for Denver's poor yards-after-contact metrics.

Kenneth Walker III generated +101 rushing yards over expected against the Broncos, the most by a Chiefs running back since at least 2018.

Walker also forced 14 missed tackles, the most by any Chiefs player in a game over that span.

#DENvsKC | #ChiefsKingdom https://t.co/8K4ldeYFlT

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 15, 2026

They've been better the last three weeks after facing a gauntlet of Walker, Tuten, CMC, and Kyren Williams in the first four weeks.

I like K9 this week, maybe not in cash games, but there's certainly a path to a ceiling performance there.

"Chalky" Chase Brown ($6,300 DK, $7,100 FD)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

We are playing Chase Brown in cash games (at least on DraftKings) this week for a few reasons, even though he clearly rates out far worse than all the other backs in our advanced data. He has a few things working heavily in his favor.

The Bengals are huge home favorites (-12.5). It's a dream game script.

The Titans just traded away their best run stopper, All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. They were already ranked 30th in rush DVOA -- yikes.

Concerns about Samaje Perine taking Brown's job after his big game against Miami were exaggerated. He handled just four carries last week to Brown's 11, and Brown earned five targets as a receiver (while Perine was not targeted).

The Titans rank 29th against backs as receivers in DVOA, and we know that Brown's true specialty in this offense is his value in the passing game.

But those rushing metrics for Brown are just gross, and there's plenty of bust potential here, which makes me want to fade him in tournaments.

Javonte Williams ($7,300 DK, $7,500 FD) 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals

I am really coming around on Williams after digging in further. We have a juicy 54.5-point total, and most folks are focused on Dak Prescott and the matchup for the Dallas passing game. That's all well and good, but Williams is coming off his best game of the season as he put up 25-155-1 against the Eagles in Week 7.

Javonte Williams right through the hole for 34 yards!

DALvsPHI on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/ZTecZRX8fw

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2026

That Philly run defense has had its issues this season, but it's still a better unit than Arizona's. While Williams hasn't been as reliable on a week-to-week basis as he was last year, he's had several big games now against Dallas' tougher opponents, as he also went 19-98-1 against the Ravens back in Week 3.

Arizona has been objectively bad against the run now for three straight weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 earlier in October, while the Rams' duo of Williams and Corum combined for 92, and the Broncos' committee of Dobbins and Coleman went for 87 last week (on just 17 carries).

He'll be kind of popular tomorrow, but I am still seeing him around sixth or seventh in rostership at the moment despite the good matchup and potentially elite game environment. I want to be over the field here.

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Bhayshul Tuten ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

He's the top-rated runner in my model, and he's on the cover of the article, folks! Tuten is cheap on both sites and in a fantastic spot this week against the Colts. The Jags are coming off a bye, rested, and should be ready to roll up the Colts.

Like Brown, he's a massive home favorite (-10) against a team that appears to be punting its season already. Like the Titans, the Colts also traded away their best interior defensive lineman this week, sending DeForest Buckner to the 49ers. Buckner is no Simmons, let's get that straight, but this Indy run defense certainly couldn't afford to lose anyone given how bad it has already been this year.

While Jacksonville's offensive line hasn't been great, it has provided Tuten holes enough of the time for him to do some major damage after contact. So, if we're pitting a mediocre O-line up against a bad defensive front AND we mix in Tuten's elite metrics after contact, I think we're looking at a winner here.

Bhayshul Tuten weaves his way in for the touchdown and the @Jaguars are on the board

HOUvsJAX on NFL Network
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/oBswI5s9Mr

— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026

Tuten has seen his usage as a receiver go up all season, too. He's coming off a 4-for-48 as a pass-catcher in their last game against Houston in Week 6, and he had his first two-touchdown game of the season in that one, too.

I think he's the best "bang-for-your-buck" play on the slate. Deploy in all formats!

Jaylen Warren ($6,600 DK, $7,400 FD)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Why are we sleeping on Jaylen Warren this week? I see a big drop-off in rostership after Brown, Gibbs, Tuten, Robinson, Bucky Irving, and Williams. I see Jaylen Warren as a distant seventh, and I'm not really sure I get it.

I have to assume it has to do with Rico Dowdle handling 15 touches last week. That has to be it, right? Because Warren has been objectively one of the best all-around backs in the league this season.

Most games with 125+ scrimmage yards this season

Jaylen Warren 4
Kenneth Walker 4
James Cook 3
Jahmyr Gibbs 3
Bijan Robinson 3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3 https://t.co/aUKTanh9HJ

— PFF (@PFF) October 25, 2026

Yes, I am a Steelers fan. But if you read my work or follow me at all, you'll know that I don't think much of their current roster or really many of their current offensive players other than Warren and their offensive line.

So, let's start with the fact that even while Dowdle did have 15 touches last week, Warren still had 21 of his own. His 18 carries went for 101 yards and represented 60% of Pittsburgh's rushing attempts. He turned four targets as a receiver into 3-36 to finish with 137 scrimmage yards.

Yes, Dowdle was out when these teams first played back on October 1, but Warren was extremely efficient and effective in that game, running for 93 yards on 17 carries and adding 33 more on three receptions.

While the Browns have been good at limiting opposing backs' yards before contact, they've been horrible at tackling and have the worst yards after contact per rush and explosive rush rate metrics from our earlier chart.

Warren doesn't need 25+ touches to have a big game in this matchup. He's dynamic and can turn any run or reception into a big play, which seems even more probable against this big-play-prone defense. I love Warren this week, and I think he provides some of the most leverage for tournaments. His ceiling is just as high as anyone on this slate.

Good luck, everyone -- and thanks for reading.

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