RADIO
The Miami Dolphins have shown once again that they can't score points against top-tier teams.
They only scored 14 points in Frankfurt, Germany, and lost to the Chiefs by the margin of a Tyreek Hill fumble that was returned for a touchdown. It's likely they would have lost, anyway, because Patrick Mahomes would probably have put together a game-winning drive at the end of regulation or in overtime if he had to. The lack of scoring--just 35 points in a game with the line set at 50--was expected by readers of this column. We took the under, and now we're 8-2 on picking over/under results this season.
What else is good? We also took a win on the moneyline. Bryce Young couldn't build on his Week 8 victory over C.J. Stroud and had his worst game yet, throwing three interceptions, including two that Kenny Moore returned for touchdowns. It's time to move on to this week's games so let's see what I have in mind, shall we?
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Week 10 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 1-0 on Moneyline, 0-1 Against the Spread, 1-0 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 3-5 on Moneyline, 3-12 Against the Spread, 8-2 on Over/Under Picks
New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders (NYJ -1 / NYJ -112)
Sunday, 8:20 pm | O/U: 37
New Raiders coach Antonio Pierce looked better than Josh McDaniels in his coaching debut. The Raiders destroyed the New York Giants by a score of 30-6 last week. The Raiders players are happy to play for him. They are rallying around Pierce and rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell. O'Connell has improved in each of his three starts. He is learning. He eliminated turnover-worthy plays in his game against the Giants. For him to play better than Zach Wilson will be a low bar to meet.
The Jets' defense is tough, but the Raiders are getting more out of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams now. The Jets offensive line is falling apart, and Maxx Crosby, who made three sacks last week against the other New Jersey team, is going to have his way with them. Zach Wilson was sacked eight times last week by the Chargers, and Crosby is considerably better than both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
Pick: Raiders over Jets on the ML (-102)
Week 10 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI +1.5)
Sunday, 4:05 pm | O/U: 43
Kyler Murray is a home underdog against Taylor Heinicke's Falcons in his return to football. Heinicke may have been an improvement over Desmond Ridder, but the Falcons haven't looked much improved with him. They're 0-2 in the two games Heinicke played, and their total yardage in both games has been below what it was in the three previous games.
Part of the reason the Falcons' offense keeps struggling is that Arthur Smith is making baffling play calls. Look, it is annoying when fantasy people complain about how many touches their guys get because it denies them points. But the points come from the real success of the players on the field, and Bijan Robinson really has been playing better than Tyler Allgeier by most metrics--even on his few touches inside of the Red Zone.
It's not wrong for the Falcons to throw to TE2 Jonnu Smith if he is having success. It is wrong to give the backup tight end a carry inside the five when he has shown no success anytime in his career as a running back. Maybe Arthur Smith is having fantasies about a certain other "tight end" in his division who could have executed that kind of play better than Jonnu Smith.
Pick: Cardinals (+1.5) over Falcons (-110)
Week 10 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (ARI +1.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 45
Both teams are gaining more yards per pass attempt than average. The 49ers are still leading the whole league with an unreal 9.0 yards per attempt, 0.4 more than the No. 2 Dolphins and almost a full yard per attempt more than the No. 3 Texans, even after a couple of off games for Brock Purdy in which key offensive stars were injured.
Now in Week 10, Deebo Samuel is practicing in full and is ready to go. Tackle Trent Williams logged a limited practice on Thursday and has an outside chance of playing. And Purdy is rested after the bye. The 49ers defense is fierce, but the Jaguars will do their part, too, to put this game over 45.
Pick: Over 45 (-110)
Other Over/Under Picks
TEN @ TB - Over 39 (-110)
Will Levis should bounce back (somewhat) the week after struggling against Pittsburgh, one of the toughest teams for a rookie to face. Both teams allow significantly more yards and estimated points per pass attempt than the league average. They are both among the ten worst defenses overall. Baker and Levis will exchange aerial volleys in a fun showdown at the bay.
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