NBA Draft: UDFAs Who Won't Waste Time

October 3, 2022

Brady Grove identifies a few key UDFA prospects of the 2022 NBA Draft who could have an immediate impact for Fantasy Basketball Managers throughout their rookie campaigns. These are sleepers to target in deep leagues.

It's funny that every year at the NBA Draft, once the end of the guaranteed money and live appearances arrives at the end of the first round, everybody tunes out and refers to the 60th pick as "Mr. Irrelevant." That's not very accurate though, is it? Speaking historically, the title of "Mr. Irrelevant" could just as easily be applied to each pick in the draft, as organizations differ greatly in their evaluation of talent and their own needs, particularly in a year without the NCAA tournament. The nickname just doesn't reflect how basketball works anymore. Executives strategically stockpile second-round draft picks for the less burdensome financial obligations, and organizations in rebuilding mode get super creative to field a respectable team on a budget.

Particularly in the NBA where worldwide talent is plentiful and positional lines continue to fade, opportunity is everything: in the right situation, the right under-the-radar player can make an immediate, poignant statement. With professional development leagues for 16-18-year-olds, an ever-expanding set of domestic/international opportunities due to the sheer growth of basketball, and widespread NIL rights for college athletes, players of all levels and localities are starting to get their due exposure and now have enough freedom to hone their skills in a place, and at a pace that fits best with their path to the NBA.

Plus, I am inherently skeptical and distrusting of scouting from the high school level to pre-Draft. That's why in this annual article, I tend to favor overlooked college players (love the mid-majors/non-power conferences) with either well-rounded, polished games, or specific statistical specialties.

We are going to discuss a handful of 2022 second-round picks and undrafted free agent (UDFA) signees who, given their individual skillsets and circumstances, warrant the attention of Fantasy Basketball Managers as potential high-impact rookies for the 2022-23 campaign who can quietly be acquired on clearance once they start showing signs of emergence.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Herbert Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, Kessler Edwards, Brandon Boston Jr., and Aaron Wiggins were just a few of the second-round success stories from last year, while the likes of Duane Washington Jr., Trendon Watford, Austin Reaves, Brandon Williams, Terry Taylor, and Jose Alvarado strongly represented the UDFA class. So, in search of the next class of super slept-on rookie surprises, let's dive right into the deep end of this NBA Draft talent pool, shifting our focus to the workhorses and specialists of the UDFA class with upward mobility and an eye on a quick promotion.

Kenneth Lofton Jr. (F, MEM)

Kenneth Lofton Jr. is a "round mound of rebound" type, standing 6'7 and weighing 275-lb. The 2021 C-USA ROY and 2022 C-USA First-Team selection spent only two years in college for Louisiana Tech, but in that time, he demonstrated top-notch grit and appetite, and so he seems like a phenomenal fit for the current identity of the Memphis Grizzlies. He'll have to compete for PT on a two-way deal with the likes of a great cast of Grind City rookies like Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, Vince Williams Jr., and Justin Bean, and that's not even touching last year's rotation. However, he has the specialist skillset to prove himself an asset come early opportunity.

Lofton made some big leaps as a Louisiana Tech sophomore. In almost 5.0 more minutes per contest (27.0), he averaged a double-double with 16.5 points and 10.5 rebounds and demonstrated surprisingly coordinated skills with 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Importantly, he also went from converting 93 of 156 (59.6%) free throws and zero of zero three-point tries as a freshman to 123 of 183 (67.2%) from the line and hitting four of his 20 attempts from deep. His Summer League play upped his stock as well.

In seven games (21.0 MP), he produced 14.9 points, 6.4 boards, and 1.9 assists, and went five of 17 on threes (29.4%) along with 15 of 20 (75%) on free throws. He didn't produce mass defensive statistics as an amateur, but his 2.2 DWS figure was the best on the team, he was second on the team in Defensive Box Plus/Minus (2.1), second in block percentage (3%), and third in steal percentage (2.4%).

Memphis might be a young, loaded squad, but Kenneth Lofton Jr. offers very unique contributions, a body type that has proven capable of defending several positions, an ever-expanding offensive repertoire, and an animal-like hunger for eating what comes off of the glass. The Grizz have dealt with injury issues over the past couple of years, and Taylor Jenkins has shown that he won't shy away from getting creative with the rotation. Even with all of the highly-skilled youth that Memphis has to work with, Kenneth Lofton Jr. could quickly cement himself on the NBA floor if given the opportunity with his team in need.

Kofi Cockburn (C, UTA)

2020 Big Ten Freshman of the Year, 2x First-Team All-Big Ten, 2021 Consensus Second-Team All-American, 2022 Consensus First-Team All-American, the winner of 68 regular season college games and a Big Ten regular season championship in three seasons at the University of Illinois (if you count the games where he was suspended for selling apparel & memorabilia--like a champ), and the title of "undrafted" to cap the current list. Kofi Cockburn is just one of those college prospects that everyone seems determined to talk themselves into discarding.

There are plenty of typical knocks against the 7'0, 290-lb. Jamaica-native: he's too slow, not efficient enough from the field or line, and not in tune with the style of play in 2022's NBA. To use those criticisms to count Cockburn out is to assume that today's NBA rosters are formed with the goal of fast pace and high-volume three-point shooting when there is a larger umbrella philosophy that is the true driving force: very narrowed-down specialty roles.

Importantly, Kofi was also noted during his college years for having great awareness and smart movement on the floor, and for operating very well in the pick and roll. Kofi Cockburn might not be with the Utah Jazz in short order; in fact, all of the players in this discussion could find themselves in a different location for two months before we even hear about it (that's the nature of life as a UDFA).

But for the sake of argument, let's say that Cockburn is with the Jazz organization for the 2022-23 regular season in some form or fashion. Who is he competing with to crack the rotation? With Utah's house-cleaning of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, the current depth chart lists Cody Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, Udoka Azubuike (recovering from ankle & foot surgery), and Auburn rookie Walker Kessler at center with notable power forwards Lauri Markkanen and Jarred Vanderbilt also on the roster.

Azubuike has played a total of 252 minutes in 32 NBA games since 2020, and while Zeller, Olynyk, and Kessler each encapsulate a unique brand of basketball, the Jazz could be a team in dire need of Kofi's sturdiness, toughness, and durability before too long. He averaged 20.9 points and 10.6 rebounds in his final season at Illinois. He averaged 1.0+ blocks per game every year, played in sync with NBA-level guards, and while he didn't put the entire offensive package together for any one year, he had two solid years of FT shooting (65.5% & 67.7%) and two solid years from the field (59.3% & 65.4%).

His overall Summer League stats are shaky, but he ended on a positive note and averaged seven points and eight boards in 18.1 MP over six games. He may not have the skillset or athleticism to be a star center in today's NBA, but he has everything it takes to be a fantastic role player with double-double upside if he gets a chance for the Jazz as a rookie.

Trevor Hudgins (G, HOU)

The Rio Grande Valley Vipers just got themselves an absolute beast; maybe not for too long though, because Trevor Hudgins is tailor-made to be a Houston Rocket in 2022. Per Jon Walker of Northwest Student Media, Hudgins received zero DI offers and landed at Northwest Missouri State (DII) after head coach Ben McCollum noticed him at a Kansas AAU game.

It ended up being a jackpot find for Coach McCollum. Hudgins has been dubbed one of the top DII players in history, winning three national titles, two tournament MOP awards, three MIAA Conference POY awards, two First-Team All-American designations, two DII POY awards, and the 2022 Bevo Francis Award for the top small-school college basketball player.

In four years and 139 games at NWMS, Hudgins averaged 20.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists (with only 1.8 turnovers), and 1.4 steals in 36.3 minutes per game, hitting 435 career threes at a 46.5% clip and 502 total free throws at an 87.8% clip. He shot 90.1% from the stripe for each of his last two seasons, averaged 23.0 points per game last year, and never shot below 41.5% from three for a season, with two seasons above 50% (his best being 53.3% with 105 makes from deep in 2019-20).

He shot with unbelievable accuracy, prolifically scored for four full seasons, played active perimeter defense, took care in distributing the ball, and probably would've ended with four DII championships instead of three if there had been a 2020 postseason. At 6'0, 180-lb., Hudgins is a bit undersized, but he is comparable to former Rocket guard Chris Clemons, except that he is three inches taller and displayed much better shooting accuracy throughout college. Between Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, and TyTy Washington, Houston has young talent at the guard positions (while also breaking in Jabari Smith Jr.).

However, the spots of guys like Josh Christopher and Theo Maledon on the depth chart can be taken because of their mediocre shooting, and we've seen how a sharp-shooter like Garrison Matthews can step into success with as many games as Eric Gordon has missed since 2019. When you shoot as well as Trevor Hudgins for as long as he did, I don't care what division of college he played in.

In consistently shooting 40%+/88%+ from three and the free throw line, demonstrating basketball IQ on both sides of the floor, and having experience within a winning culture, there is room for you to contribute in today's NBA. If he gets an early opportunity to show why he's possibly the best to ever do it at DII, we could be seeing plenty of Trevor Hudgins as a super-sleeper rookie for the Houston Rockets.

Scotty Pippen Jr. (G, LAL)

Scottie Pippen Jr. was a part of some Jerry Stackhouse Vanderbilt teams that ranged from bad to NIT-worthy over three seasons, having to shoulder most of the load on his way to 2020 SEC All-Freshman honors and then two-straight First-Team All-SEC honors. His dad, as you may have heard, is Scottie Pippen--and much like his dad, he seems focused on escaping a lofty shadow.

The Lakers love to make headlines with even their second-round picks and UDFAs (Shareef O'Neal/Mac McClung) and have loved making use of their less expensive under-the-radar rookies in recent years with so much money being spent elsewhere. It's hard to say where his chances will come, but the Los Angeles Lakers have been so volatile the last couple of years that I'm confident in saying his skillset will be called on during his first NBA season.

Over his final two seasons at Vandy, Scottie produced 20.6 points, 1.9 steals, and 4.6 assists in 32.6 minutes per game. While his shooting was up and down, he overall shot 34.3% on 411 three-point attempts and 76.3% on 655 free throws taken in 90 career games. With a total assist percentage of 31.9%, Pippen took better care of the ball with each year, reducing his turnover rate from 19.1 to 15.1% from 2019 to 2022.

Also, his defense really came along, improving his steal percentage every year (2.1% to 3.4%) and capping his last campaign off with 1.9 defensive win shares and a 2.7 defensive box plus/minus after combining for figures of just 1.1 and -0.1 in each category, respectively, over his first two seasons.

In the 2022 Summer League, he demonstrated every skill one would hope he would. In 22.3 MP over eight games, he put up 11.6 points, 3.6 boards, 4.8 assists, and 2.3 steals. He didn't shoot well from the field or from three, but he shot 77.1% on FTs and limited his turnovers to 2.9 a game. If the Lakers call his number, it won't be because they need him to hit microwave threes in reserve, it will be because they need a well-rounded, pesky perimeter defender who has the skill to effectively distribute the ball to the players they are paying to shoot and score in reserve (but if he sees an opportunity to drive and lay it up, he will).

Especially if disaster strikes, Scottie Pippen Jr. could get thrown into the mix and be an instant life-saver for those specifically in need of assists and steals, a la T.J. McConnell. He should be a fun two-way contract rookie to follow in 2022-23 whether he's with the South Bay or the Los Angeles Lakers.

Orlando Robinson (C, MIA)

As a 2021 Second Team and 2022 First Team All-Mountain West selection at Fresno State, 7'0, 235-lb. Orlando Robinson isn't as decorated as some of the other UDFAs discussed here, but his versatility, size, and landing spot should not be overlooked. He finds himself signed to a Miami Heat squad that boasts Bam Adebayo at PF/C, but other current frontcourt components include Haywood Highsmith (who is largely unproven), Dewayne Dedmon (serviceable to a ceiling as a reserve), and Udonis Haslem (still somehow on the roster).

His real competition for PT is thus Omer Yurtseven, who got 12.6 MP in 56 games in 2021-22 and had himself a nice G League season. Robinson had a great career in Fresno, but his final year was an absolute gem. In 36 games, he produced 19.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.2 blocks in 33.2 MP. He also shot 71.6% from the free throw line, 51.7% in the two-point territory, and hit 37 threes out of 105 attempts (35.2%).

In terms of metrics, he excelled and improved in his deficient areas. Last year, he notched a 51.9% effective field goal rate, 23% assist rate, 1.9% steal rate, 4.9% block rate, 12.6% turnover rate, 2.9 defensive win shares, and a 2.8 defensive box plus/minus (on his way to All-MWC Defense), all of which were career-best figures. In the 2022 Summer League, he proved himself an asset to the Miami Heat organization. In 22.4 MP across seven games, he averaged 9.1 points, 7.6 boards, 1.0 steals, and 1.1 blocks.

He didn't shoot well from the field, but he did at least sink 19 of 24 free throws (79.2%), and he left off with a bang, recording five blocks and 21 rebounds combined over the last two games. The Heat have the roster to once again contend in the Eastern Conference, but frontcourt depth behind Bam is far from their strong suit. Even if they go small at power forward with a combination of Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin in front of Highsmith, that still leaves many areas of basketball with plenty to be desired.

Yurtseven is a little thicker, blocks and rebounds just as well, and shoots from the line and in the two-point range about as well. However, Robinson appears to be pretty far ahead of Yurtseven in three-point shooting; because where Yurtseven is right now at age 24 is where Robinson was last season with the Bulldogs as a 21-year-old. Additionally, Robinson has consistently been able to collect steals and find open teammates while steadily limiting turnovers; and while Yurtseven has the bigger frame at 7'0, Robinson's build and athleticism allow him to effectively play for 30+ minutes per game while Yurtseven tends to max out in the 22-28 MP range.

Even if Miami is mostly playing small ball, there are minutes to be gained in Miami's frontcourt, and with the limitations of Highsmith/Dedmon/Haslem and the stylistic differences between Robinson and Yurtseven, there are minutes to be had. Especially in the case of injury to core rotation members, he stands a solid chance of breaking through if given the chance as a rookie, in which case, there isn't much on the floor that he can't do. In a year without many diamond-in-the-rough shot-blockers, I'll be watching Orlando Robinson very closely.

Honorable Mentions:

Johnny Juzang, Jeenathan Williams, Buddy Boeheim, Trevion Williams, Tevin Brown, James Akinjo, Michael Devoe, Justin Bean, Fabian White Jr., Jacob Gilyard, Jamaree Bouyea, John Butler, Collin Gillespie (INJ), AJ Green, Gabe Brown, Tommy Kuhse, Julian Champagnie, Keon Ellis, Jeriah Horne, Darius Days, Jordan Hall, Ron Harper Jr., Javon Freeman-Liberty.

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