X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

"My Guys" For 2023 - Jon Anderson's 5 Favorite Fantasy Baseball Players to Draft

George Kirby - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

It's my third year of writing up the "My Guys" post right here on RotoBaller. Each year, I give my five favorite fantasy baseball players to draft, all things being considered. Last year, here is who I ended up with:

  1. Willy Adames
  2. Pete Alonso
  3. Eduardo Rodriguez
  4. Andrew Heaney
  5. Max Kepler

I would call that a two-for-five. Adames and Alonso had great seasons, Rodriguez and Heaney couldn't stay on the field, and Kepler was just bad. Since the Alonso pick was a bit of a cheap shot, we shouldn't call that post a great success. So keep that in mind when you're reading this. I will do my best to give my reasoning, and hopefully, I can learn from my mistakes in the past and have more success this year.

I am trying to evenly distribute my picks up and down a 400-pick draft or so. However, I don't think it's very useful to take someone in the top 25, since those guys are all studs and nobody is really being served by being told that studs are studs. Let's get to it, my five favorite players to draft for 2023.

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Corey Seager, Texas Rangers

A lot like Alonso last year, this feels cheap to me. However, Seager goes late enough (typically after pick 45) to justify it. He's in a range where one can still "reach" for him, so if you believe in what I'm selling you here, maybe you want to go ahead and do that.

If you've been reading any significant amount of fantasy baseball stuff this offseason, you already know a lot of what I have to say. Almost every single study of the shift ban concluded that Seager stands to benefit, including my own. As people have become more aware of that, his ADP has been on the move.

There is a chance we're not quite right about how serious the impact of the shift ban will be, and that suggests maybe the market has overcorrected in this regard. But wait, there's more.

I have always been a big fan of Seager because he has plate skills that not a lot of hitters have. Since 2019, Seager has posted a strikeout rate below 17% with a barrel rate of 10.7%. The only other hitters in the league with a strikeout rate below 20% and a double-digit barrel rate (with 1,500+ PA) are Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, and George Springer. It's an elite group.

Seager has the rare ability to hit for a high batting average while being among the league leaders in longballs. One other legitimate knock on his fantasy game in the past has been the lack of steals. With steals certain to increase significantly (I would guess by more than 25%), that is not nearly as big of a problem as it has been in the past. It's not like it wouldn't be a problem if he doesn't steal any bases while the league steals more, but it becomes less of a problem taking a low-steals player with a very early pick in your draft - you can patch it up later much more easily than in years past.

So we have an already elite hitter who could benefit a ton from the new rules, and with his only real flaw being tamped down in importance this year. I have supreme confidence in Seager turning in a studly season at the dish, and he is not a guy that costs you a top-30 pick.

 

Teoscar Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

This pick is mostly driven by the fact that Hernandez is significantly cheaper this year than last, and how that makes no sense to me.

 

People will tell you that he's going to a worse park. I push back on that. Last year, barrels from right-handed batters went for homers 56.6% of the time in Seattle, that's the fourth-best mark in the league (Toronto was down at 50.2%). Isn't that really the main thing we're talking about with Tesocar? You want homers and RBI from the guy, and you get a whole lot of those from barrels.

The Mariners lineup is also not a big step down from what he had in Toronto, and it might not be a step down at all.

Oh, and then there's the fact that Hernandez is just a really good hitter. Since 2019, he has hit a .270 AVG and a .507 SLG with a 14.2% barrel rate. Yes, the strikeouts are an issue (28.7% since 2019), but the quality of contact has kept his BABIP high - and the sample is big enough to believe that it will stick.

Does he have a .300 batting average upside like Seager? No, I don't think so. But I believe this guy can hit 40 homers this year while hitting close to that .270 mark we've seen from him in recent years. The other thing to like is that he's been a stolen base guy in the past, swiping a dozen bags in 2021 and attempting nine steals last year. He has above-average foot speed, so to me, he's one of those guys in the perfect spot to really take advantage of the new steals-friendly environment. I think there's a 30-20 upside in Hernandez, and he goes around pick 100.

 

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

I love a pitcher who does not give out free passes. Of all of the pitchers that made at least 15 starts last season, Kirby's 4.1% walk rate was sixth-best in the league. And he didn't do that by just throwing the ball down the pipe - his locations were magnificent.

That is one huge box checked. The next one to check would be the strikeout rate. In that regard, he was pretty much average (24.5% K%), but what I see is the upside for more on that. After the All-Star break, Kirby's strikeout rate came up to 27%, and over that 13-start span, he posted a 21.6% K-BB% - exactly what we want.

His fastball didn't grade out all that well by the Stuff+ models, but it's a live pitch. He has a ton of velocity on it, and the 16% SwStr% it generated is eye-popping.

What Kirby needs to do to take the next step into ace-hood is to enhance his secondary stuff. You can see some really solid Stuff+ numbers on his slider and changeup there, but overall they didn't produce great results. Given this kid's talent, however, I would be really surprised if he hasn't made a lot of improvements over the offseason.

Kirby has all of the tools you want under the hood, and innings aren't much of a question for him (he threw 156 total last year). You could see Kirby get to 180 innings this year, and he has the talent to be an SP1. Sign me up!

 

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

We're moving down past pick 150 in the ADP now, and it's another young pitcher with an electric arm. May is my favorite pitcher in the league to watch. His stuff is breathtaking. Last year, over six starts, he posted a sweet 13.9% SwStr% with a ridiculous 139.8 Stuff+. His curveball was one of the best individual pitches in the entire game with a 206.5 Stuff+. He did all of that while generating another high ground ball rate.

May's ability is top 10 in the league, and he arguably has the optimal supporting cast situation going for him.

The reason for the lower ADP is that the box score numbers didn't turn out all that great for him last season (4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 30 innings), and there are concerns about how many starts he can make. He has thrown just 143.2 Major League innings in his career, and that's across four seasons. It's hard to imagine he can jump up to 150 in one season, but I hardly think it's out of the question.

We have seen talk of the "Tommy John honeymoon" a lot lately. The data supports that pitchers typically hold up quite well for two or so seasons after Tommy John surgery - and that's great news for May.

Do I think May can be a top-five fantasy SP this year? Overall - the answer is no. But I absolutely think he can do that on a per-inning basis, and for where he gets drafted, I don't think he's going to let anybody down as long as he can clear 100 innings - which I think is very likely right now.

 

Ramon Laureano, Oakland Athletics

Laureano is projecting for 15+ homers and 15+ steals in every single projection system, and he routinely falls past pick 200. He's a talented player that has had his last two seasons derailed by injury and suspension.

This isn't to say that there aren't concerns about his health or his performance after returning from suspension, but the smart money, I think, is on projecting him to be who we have seen in the past - and that is a very useful fantasy player.

Yes, he plays for Oakland, a team that really has not produced a great fantasy hitter in quite some time. That said, Laureano is a very logical trade candidate for them as a guy who will turn 29 in July and is unlikely to be part of the Athletics' future plans (if they have any of those). I think you could get performance worthy of a third outfielder from him while he's in Oakland, and then see him get dealt to a contender where he will be supported by a better lineup and likely a much friendlier park.

Laureano is on a ton of my teams, and I don't plan on slowing down.

There you have it, my five favorite fantasy baseball players to draft for 2023. I look forward to looking back at this once again! Thanks for checking it out.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Brandon Powell4 hours ago

Joining Vikings
New England Patriots4 hours ago

Patriots Re-Sign Jalen Mills
DeMar DeRozan4 hours ago

Won't Return On Wednesday
Austin Reaves4 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Five
Houston Texans4 hours ago

Texans Sign Denzel Perryman
Seiya Suzuki4 hours ago

Takes BP, Runs Bases Wednesday
Foster Moreau4 hours ago

Stepping Away From Football
Marcus Stroman4 hours ago

To Start Opening Day
Jalen Suggs4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Thursday
Yu Darvish4 hours ago

May Not Start Opening Day For Padres
Houston Rockets4 hours ago

D.J. Augustin Signs With Rockets
Mike Clevinger4 hours ago

Pitched Through Sinus Infection
Joe Musgrove5 hours ago

Throws Simulated Game Wednesday
Nick Richards5 hours ago

Signs Extension
Jace Peterson5 hours ago

Sustains Hand Bruise After HBP On Wednesday
Anthony Davis5 hours ago

To Suit Up On Wednesday
Jhoan Duran5 hours ago

To Throw Thursday
Alex Kirilloff5 hours ago

To Miss Opening Of Season
Kyle Manzardo5 hours ago

Sent Down To Minor League Camp
Jorge Polanco5 hours ago

To Miss Beginning Of Season
Jonah Heim6 hours ago

To Serve As Primary Catcher
Mitch Garver6 hours ago

Ramping Up Action
Austin Hooper7 hours ago

Heading To Vegas
Elijah Moore7 hours ago

Dealt To Cleveland
Jose Altuve7 hours ago

No Baseball Activities For Two Months
Jalen McDaniels7 hours ago

Ruled Out Wednesday
Mecole Hardman7 hours ago

Agrees To One-Year Deal With Jets
James Harden7 hours ago

Will Sit Wednesday
Alex Caruso7 hours ago

Will Play Against Philadelphia
Ja Morant7 hours ago

To Come Off Bench, See Minutes Limit Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton7 hours ago

And Chris Duarte Ruled Out Wednesday
Kyle Hendricks8 hours ago

Has Three Bullpen Sessions Lined Up
Caleb Martin8 hours ago

Available To Play Wednesday
Kyle Lowry8 hours ago

Will Play Versus Knicks
Torey Krug8 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Filip Hronek8 hours ago

Set For Canucks Debut Thursday
Kyrie Irving8 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Golden State
Luka Doncic8 hours ago

Will Play Wednesday
Bradley Beal8 hours ago

Sitting Versus Nuggets
Elvis Merzlikins8 hours ago

Available For Selection Again
Connor Ingram8 hours ago

Faces Oilers Wednesday
Brandon Nimmo8 hours ago

Could Be Ready For Games This Weekend
Stuart Skinner9 hours ago

In Oilers Crease On Wednesday
Shohei Ohtani9 hours ago

Will Throw In Minor League Game Friday
Darren Helm9 hours ago

Returns To Action Wednesday
Drew Rucinski9 hours ago

To Miss Next Start, IL Stint Possible
Cale Makar9 hours ago

Misses Another Game Wednesday
Jackson Chourio9 hours ago

Wows In Limited Spring Training
Kyle Tucker9 hours ago

Should Be Fine Moving Forward
Ranger Suárez9 hours ago

Ranger Suarez Likely To Begin Year On IL
Carlos Carrasco9 hours ago

Scratched From Thursday's Start
Keldon Johnson10 hours ago

Could Miss Second Consecutive Game
Jalen McDaniels10 hours ago

Questionable With Hip Soreness
Karl-Anthony Towns10 hours ago

Expected To Return On Wednesday
Bradley Beal10 hours ago

Now Listed As Questionable On Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson10 hours ago

Remains Sidelined With Finger Sprain
D'Ernest Johnson12 hours ago

Signs With Jaguars
C.J. Stroud12 hours ago

Panthers Meet With C.J. Stroud
Jaxon Smith-Njigba13 hours ago

Runs 4.53 Unofficial Forty
DeAndre Hopkins13 hours ago

Not On Browns' Radar
Russell Wilson13 hours ago

Expected To Be Fine For OTAs
Miro Heiskanen15 hours ago

Matches Franchise Record Tuesday
Wyatt Johnston16 hours ago

Pushes His Goal Streak To Five Games
Brandon Tanev16 hours ago

Produces A Big Performance Against Dallas
Luke Evangelista16 hours ago

Ties Franchise Record With Four-Point Period
Quinn Hughes16 hours ago

Continues Multi-Assist Streak
Troy Terry16 hours ago

Exits With Injury
Brock Nelson16 hours ago

Injured Versus Toronto
Josh Anderson16 hours ago

Gets Hurt Tuesday
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Lights The Lamp In Capitals Loss
Jack Roslovic1 day ago

Scores Twice in Columbus Victory
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

A Hard Fade In Austin
Sam Burns1 day ago

Hard To Trust At WGC Dell Match Play
Kirby Dach1 day ago

Returns To Action Tuesday
Evgeny Kuznetsov1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Ryan Lindgren1 day ago

Back For Rangers Tuesday
Jordan Greenway1 day ago

Won't Play Tuesday
Arizona Cardinals1 day ago

Cardinals Agree With L.J. Collier On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Cowboys To Re-Sign Dante Fowler To One-Year Deal
Pittsburgh Steelers1 day ago

Steelers Re-Sign Cornerback James Pierre
Max Homa1 day ago

A Strong Contender In Austin
Atlanta Falcons1 day ago

Falcons Planning To Host Calais Campbell
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Broncos Expected To Draft RB This Year
Ronald Jones1 day ago

Cowboys Agree To Deal With Ronald Jones
Austin Ekeler1 day ago

Would Like To Stay With Chargers
Lamar Jackson1 day ago

Ready To Move On From Ravens?
Minnesota Vikings2 days ago

Vikings Re-Sign Jonathan Bullard
Tom Hoge2 days ago

A Bracket-Buster In Match Play
Hideki Matsuyama2 days ago

Doesn't Perform In Match Play
Kamaru Usman2 days ago

Unsuccessful In Bid To Recapture Title
Leon Edwards2 days ago

Defends Crown At UFC 286
Viktor Hovland2 days ago

Has Struggled In Match Play
Rafael Fiziev2 days ago

Has Strong Showing But Takes Loss
Justin Gaethje2 days ago

Puts On Another Highlight-Reel Performance
Tyrrell Hatton2 days ago

The Favorite In His Group
Bryan Barberena2 days ago

Suffers Second Straight Submission Loss
Gunnar Nelson2 days ago

Scores Impressive Finish At UFC 286
Will Zalatoris2 days ago

Needs Birdies At WGC Match Play
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Can Advance At WGC Match Play
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

May Struggle At WGC Match Play
Chris Kirk2 days ago

Draws A Bit Unlucky At WGC Match Play
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Has Good Chance At WGC Match Play
Brian Harman2 days ago

Has Putter's Chance To Contend At WGC
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Has Challenge At WGC Match Play
Casey O'Neill3 days ago

Takes First Defeat Against Former Champion
Jennifer Maia3 days ago

Earns Decision Win Over Undefeated Opponent
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Suffers Setback With Decision Loss
Marvin Vettori3 days ago

Picks Up Decision Win
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Finishes In Top 10 At Atlanta
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Finishes Strong In Atlanta
Erik Jones3 days ago

Gets His First Top-10 Finish Of The Season
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Bounces Back From Speeding Penalty
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Has A Strong Showing
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Hangs in For Fifth Place At Atlanta
Corey Lajoie3 days ago

Corey LaJoie Uses Course To Advantage On Sunday
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Ends Up With Another Top Five Result
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Brad Keselowski Noses Christopher Bell Out For Second
Joey Logano3 days ago

Goes From Pole To Win Sunday
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Starts 23rd
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Starts 24th At The AmBetter Health 400
AJ Allmendinger4 days ago

Eyes Another Strong Finish
NASCAR4 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Eyes Back-To-Back Superspeedway Wins
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

May Be Overlooked
Erik Jones4 days ago

Is A Value Play At Atlanta
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Seeks Better Results
Noah Gragson4 days ago

Might Surprise At Atlanta Motor Speedway
Austin Dillon4 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Atlanta
Ty Dillon4 days ago

Hoping To Keep Car Running At Atlanta
NASCAR4 days ago

J.J. Yeley Starts 34th Sunday At Ambetter Health 400
Kamaru Usman5 days ago

Seeking Second Title Run
Leon Edwards5 days ago

Looks To Defend Crown On Saturday
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF