Regular season baseball is back! And my first comment about the season, how about Trevor Story?! Throw a pitch over the plate and watch him hit it a long way. I am not going to say that one hot start is going to propel him over Corey Seager as the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year award this year, but it certainly helps.

This first rankings will feature stats from last season since the Minor League season is still so young. But next week, the stats will cover their numbers from the 2016 season. Just a quick reminder, players who are promoted are taken off the list. Update 4/11: This was an interesting first week for prospects and rookies. We saw Nomar Mazara make a sparkling debut, Jeremy Hazelbaker hit .400/.440/.867 in his first week as a 28-year-old rookie, and both Max Kepler and Mallex Smith get called up for the Twins and Braves. Should be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next few days and weeks.

Be sure to look down below the Top 30 Prospect Power Rankings to see my list of the Top 20 Overall Rookies. The list can vary based on recent performances, but there likely will not be too many major shifts on the list until the season gets further underway. You will also notice that some rookies still in the minors will be on this list. That is because that list is just a list of who I believe will have the most value at the end of the season among rookies.

Editor’s Note: RotoBaller’s fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups list is updated every single day. Our awesome writers bring you analysis on hot or emerging starting pitchers, and also all other fantasy positions. You can also download our waiver wire iPhone app for free, and easily stay updated.

 

Top MLB Prospects - Fantasy Baseball Power Rankings

To be clear, this list is not the top 30 prospects in baseball. This is a list of the top 30 prospects who are likely going to rise to the major leagues and provide fantasy baseball value this season. The qualifications are simple: a player must not be on an active roster, they must have a clear path to the majors, and while they may have played in seasons prior to 2016, they must still have rookie eligibility. If a player is moved to the active roster of their team, they will be removed from this power rankings list and replaced.

 

1. A.J. Reed (1B, HOU, AAA)
Stats: 668 PA, .333/.425/.596, 35 HR, 1 SB, 19.5% K rate, 13.8% BB rate
ETA: Early May
Tyler White taking over at first base certainly makes it far less certain that Reed will see regular playing time this season, but let’s not forget how talented Reed is at the dish. While White will provide a .280+ batting average and a nice .380+ on base percentage, Reed is a bat with explosive potential, capable not only of hitting over .270, but simultaneously blasting 25+ home runs in a season. White will keep Reed in the minors for now, but it is only a matter of time before Reed forces his way into the young Astros lineup. If promoted, Reed immediately becomes a must-own first baseman in all leagues.

2. Lucas Giolito (SP, WAS, AA)
Stats: 117.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 10.08 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9, 1.28 WHIP
ETA: Early May
With several of the team’s stars nearing free agency, the Nationals are going to try and make the next two seasons count and will likely start pulling all the necessary strings in order to succeed. One of those strings will be replacing Tanner Roark in the back end of the rotation with Giolito. Roark was a reliable reliever last season, posting a 3.74 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 45.2 IP, but was less effective as a starter (4.82 ERA, 5.29 FIP in 65.1 IP). Many have suggested that Giolito will be the next Noah Syndergaard in that he fills a need in a rotation and performs at a high level. I’m going to go a step further, I think Giolito is talented enough that he will be better than Syndergaard when comparing their respective rookie seasons. Giolito is absolutely worth stashing in all fantasy leagues as he is a potentially elite caliber talent.

3. Tyler Glasnow (SP, PIT, AAA)
Stats: 109.1 IP, 2.39 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 11.20 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 0.25 HR/9, 1.10 WHIP
ETA: Late May
Very similar to how Roark is no starting pitcher, the same can be said of the Pirates' Juan Nicasio. He is a flame thrower with success in the bullpen - a career 3.74 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 77.0 IP, but a horrendous 5.12 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 362.1 innings as a starter. It will not be long before the Pirates realize that Nicasio has a home in the ‘pen and promote highly touted prospect Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow is a potential ace with not one, but two elite pitches and a third above-average pitch. The six foot seven inch tall right-hander is about as close to being Major League ready as he is going to get and could have a major impact on the Pirates’ postseason push this season. My only concern is the legitimate point that the Pirates have a history of waiting until the middle of the summer before promoting their talented arms (see Gerrit Cole). When Glasnow is promoted, however, he immediately becomes a must own arm and should start in every game he starts for fantasy owners.

4. Blake Snell (SP, TB, AAA)
Stats: 134.0 IP, 1.41 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 10.95 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 0.47 HR/9, 1.02 WHIP
ETA: Mid-May
Another potential ace on this list, Blake Snell is currently stuck in the minors, but can be counted on to see time in the majors this season. If Snell repeats his 2015 results, he could force a change on this team. Snell’s command is still a concern, though he has shown signs of improvement in reducing walks and home runs. If promoted, expect to see Snell jump straight into the rotation and have an immediate impact for fantasy owners.

5. Trea Turner (SS, WAS, AAA)
Stats: 500 PA, .322/.370/.458, 8 HR, 29 SB, 19.4% K rate, 7.6% BB rate
ETA: Mid-May
Remember when I said that the Nationals will do anything to win this year? Well that applies just as much to shortstop as it does to the starting rotation. Danny Espinosa is a solid middle infield utility bat, but he is not starter material. His 25%+ strikeout rates and sub-.250 batting average are not what a competitive team like the Nationals need, especially now that he is no longer a potential 20 home run guy.

Trea Turner, on the other hand, is an electric talent, capable of sparking any lineup with his potentially elite speed and contact hitting ability. It is a stretch that Turner gets promoted in April as Nationals manager Dusty Baker really prefers to stick with his veterans, but I think Turner will take over the spot in Mid-May as Espinosa continues to struggle. With Turner, expect 20+ stolen bases and a batting average hovering around .275-.285.

6. Jose Berrios (SP, MIN, AAA)
Stats: 166.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 9.47 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 1.05 WHIP
ETA: Late May
The Twins could find themselves in the playoff hunt in 2016 after a 2015 season that showed a lot of promise, but if they hope to go far, they will need to promote talented right-hander Jose Berrios to the majors. Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco are not bad pitchers, but neither are near as talented or possess anywhere close the upside of the 21-year-old pitching prospect. Berrios is a potential game-changer who can come into the Twins’ rotation and would immediately become the ace. Don’t count on the Twins waiting long as Berrios proved both in Spring Training and in Triple-A that he is ready for the majors. Berrios would be a must own in all fantasy leagues if promoted.

7. Orlando Arcia (SS, MIL, AAA)
Stats: 552 PA, .307/.347/.453, 8 HR, 25 SB, 13.2% K rate, 5.4% BB rate
ETA: Mid-July
In terms of skill set, Orlando Arcia is essentially the same type of player as Trea Turner. Where they differ and why Turner is higher is because the Nationals are competitive this season and have a need at shortstop whereas the Brewers are not competitive and so they want to wait before starting the service time clock on Arcia. Even with that being true, Arcia is talented enough to eventually force himself onto the big league roster. Last season, Maikel Franco did it with the Phillies and this season Arcia will do it with the Brewers and replace Jonathan Villar. Arcia is a potentially elite shortstop in terms of batting average and speed and would immediately become a must own player in all fantasy leagues.

8. Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX, AAA)
Stats: 558 PA, .296/.366/.443, 14 HR, 2 SB, 18.3% K rate, 9.3% BB rate
ETA: Late July
Limited to the corner outfield spots and stuck behind several high salary guys occupying left and right for the Rangers, Nomar Mazara certainly lacks a clear path to playing time as it stands right now. But that is assuming that all of them stay healthy and perform adequately. Josh Hamilton has opened the season on the 15-day DL (knee surgery) and though Ian Desmond has a clean track record in terms of health, he has played one game in the outfield prior to 2016 and is now expected to be a regular.

I find it hard to imagine that a team like the Texas Rangers, in the competitive state that they currently find themselves in, stick with that duo in left field for the full season. I imagine that Mazara will take over right field (with Choo moving to left) before August. Mazara is a pure hitter and should be able to hit over .280 with 20 home runs in the majors (if given a full season to work with). The risk is that he won’t be promoted, but if called up, Mazara is a must-own player in all leagues.

Update: Mazara was called up to join the Rangers on 4/10 since Choo will miss 4-6 weeks with his calf injury. He went 3-for-4 with a home run, and is worth an add in all leagues.

9. Jose Peraza (2B, CIN, AAA)
Stats: 521 PA, .293/.316/.378, 4 HR, 33 SB, 8.6% K rate, 3.3% BB rate
ETA: Early June
Jose Peraza was officially sent down to begin his season in the minors to receive regular at-bats rather than become a bench player for the Reds. Though he is not in the majors to start off the season, Peraza still could have a valuable impact down the road. Peraza is about as Major League ready as he will ever be. He won’t hit for an overwhelmingly high batting average, but he should be able to hit .270 with limited power and decent stolen base numbers. It would surprise me immensely if Peraza is not up by Early June. Whether it be to take some at-bats in center in place of Billy Hamilton or to replace a potentially traded Brandon Phillips is another story entirely. If Peraza is promoted, his speed and qualification at second base make him a great add for teams in need of some middle infield depth.

10. John Lamb (SP, CIN, 15-Day DL)
Stats: 111.1 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 9.45 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, 1.17 WHIP
ETA: Early May
Make no mistake, John Lamb is no ace. He is not even a potential top of the rotation arm. But for fantasy purposes, Lamb could have as much value as anyone. Lamb has always had a propensity to strike out batters at a high rate and that has been especially true of his last two seasons in both the majors and minors. He gave up a rough 14.3% HR/FB rate, but even pitching in Great American Ballpark, he should be expected to bring that down a bit. The sabermetrics really like his pitching as his SIERA sat at a solid 3.56 and his xFIP was a reliable 3.73. The 5.80 ERA is not really indicative of how well he pitched last season and fantasy owners should not be deterred by the higher ERA. Don’t add John Lamb expecting an ace, but add him for pitching depth and for his strikeout potential. He should rejoin the Reds rotation in Early May once he is healthy again.

11. Gary Sanchez (C, NYY, AAA)
Stats: 498 PA, .278/.335/.512, 25 HR, 11 SB, 19.5% K rate, 7.4% BB rate
ETA: Late July
Promising catcher Gary Sanchez is beginning the 2016 season at Triple-A, but I have a feeling that that will not last long. Austin Romine is a backup through and through whereas Sanchez could potentially come in for Brian McCann and produce equal or greater value. Sanchez may not be able to hit for a .280+ average, but fantasy owners could expect somewhere in the neighborhood of .255 with 20 home runs in a full season. The fact that he would not be a starter hurts his value, but if Sanchez gets a chance to start behind the plate because of an injury to McCann, he is an absolute must own talent.

12. Joey Gallo (3B/OF, TEX, AAA)
Stats: 374 PA, .240/.342/.520, 23 HR, 2 SB, 37.2% K rate, 13.6% BB rate
ETA: Early August
If you have read my articles before, you will know that I have a lot of questions about the future of Joey Gallo. I personally don’t believe that he will ever be able to hit above .250 in the majors. But do I think he will eventually become a Major League regular? Absolutely. If Chris Davis and Adam Dunn could do it, so too can Gallo. He is capable of blasting 40 home runs per season.

The concern of course is that he will not make enough contact to be an elite fantasy contributor. I think that his hard contact and his power should make him good enough to be worth owning. If given a full season, I project that he will hit .240 with 35 home runs with 210 strikeouts. Gallo is to power what Billy Hamilton is to speed: he is arguably the best in the game at what he does best, but he is quite bad at everything else for fantasy purposes.

13. Max Kepler (1B/OF, MIN, AAA)
Stats: 508 PA, .318/.410/.520, 9 HR, 19 SB, 13.4% K rate, 13.6% BB rate
ETA: Early July
Eddie Rosario is not a bad player, but he is not good enough to keep promising outfielder Max Kepler from having an impact in the majors this season. Rosario put together a solid 2015, but it was largely buoyed on a .332 BABIP and the 24.9% strikeout rate and 0.13 BB/K rate suggest that he is due for a regression. Kepler, on the other hand, is no top prospect like current Twins center fielder Byron Buxton or a big bomber like Miguel Sano, but Kepler can do enough of everything to make him an intriguing option in left field for the Twins. Rated as the 43rd best prospect by MLB.com, Kepler should be expected to replace Rosario in the middle of the summer. His all-around skill set and potential upside make him worth owning in all fantasy leagues.

Update: Kepler is headed to Minnesota to fill in for Danny Santana (hamstring). He is most likely going to be a reserve outfielder, but is worth a flier or stash in deeper leagues.

14. Lewis Brinson (OF, TEX, AAA)
Stats: 504 PA, .329/.404/.598, 21 HR, 23 SB, 21.2% K rate, 10.1% BB rate
ETA: Early August
Lewis Brinson is on this list because of his immense fantasy upside, but the risk with him is that he won’t see time in the majors until September. Brinson can hit 20 home runs, steal 20 bases, and bat over .280. What can’t he do?! He can’t promote himself to the team, he has to wait until the team sees a clear desire and need for him. And with Delino Deshields in center and a litany of corner outfielders, Brinson does not seem to have a clear path to the majors. If Brinson is promoted, he is a must own player with elite fantasy potential, but the risk that he will not be promoted to the majors makes him not worthy of stashing in anything but dynasty leagues.

Mazara and Gallo already have spots on the 40-man roster. Brinson would need to be added.

15. Rymer Liriano (OF, MIL, 60-Day DL)
Stats: 549 PA, .292/.383/.460, 14 HR, 18 SB, 24.0% K rate, 11.7% BB rate
ETA: Late June
If not for a freak injury in Spring Training where he was hit in the face by a pitch, Rymer Liriano would not be on this list, he would be in the majors. But he now sits on the 60-day DL which means he likely will not see time in the majors until the middle of the summer. Liriano is similar in skillset to Max Kepler in that he does not do anything great, but he does everything well. He will hit for some power, steal some bases, and hit for a decent average. Though he is not nearly as talented as Kepler, Liriano is still well worth owning in most fantasy leagues.

16. Jacob Faria (SP, TB, AA)
Stats: 149.2, 1.92 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 9.56 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, 1.04 WHIP
ETA: Mid-June
While there was all this talk of Snell dominating every level of the minors that he touched last season, Jacob Faria quietly put together an outstanding season between Double-A and High-A. After 74.1 innings of high quality baseball at High-A, Faria was promoted to Double-A and continued his success there as he struck out an astounding 11.47 batters per nine innings en route to a 2.51 ERA and 2.85 FIP. Unlike Snell, Faria has not reached Triple-A, and he is not a potential ace. Don’t expect him to repeat his Double-A season in the majors, but expect solid 3.50 ERA baseball with 8.0+ K/9 rates in the majors.

17. Josh Bell (1B, PIT, AAA)
Stats: 571 PA, .317/.393/.446, 7 HR, 9 SB, 11.4% K rate, 11.4% BB rate
ETA: Early June
Similar to the conundrum with Glasnow, Josh Bell is Major League ready, but the history of the Pirates promoting prospects suggests it could be a while before he sees time. Starling Marte was not promoted until July of 2012, Gregory Polanco was not promoted until June of 2014, Andrew McCutchen was not promoted until June of 2009, and the list goes on and on. The talent currently occupying first base for the Buccos is not enough to prevent a top prospect like Bell from forcing his way to the majors, but history suggests that he will not see time in the majors until the summer. He would be a solid add for teams in need of depth at first base if he gets promoted, but he is not elite enough to warrant stashing prior to his promotion.

18. Bradley Zimmer (OF, CLE, AA)
Stats: 549 PA, .273/.368/.446, 16 HR, 44 SB, 23.9% K rate, 10.0% BB rate
ETA: Early August
Though he was not given the starting center field role right out of the gate, Bradley Zimmer still has a chance to have an impact for the Indians. Though both Tyler Naquin and the currently suspended Abraham Almonte are ahead of Zimmer on the center field depth chart, neither of them have anywhere near the upside that Zimmer possesses. If the Indians are struggling for offense late in the season and are in need of a spark, Zimmer could be the one to provide it with his electric power/speed combo. Zimmer would be an absolute must-own in the event of a promotion. Since there is no guarantee of a promotion, he is not worth stashing.

19. Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL, A+)
Stats: 99 PA, .289/.394/.482, 1 HR, 0 SB, 14.1% K rate, 14.1% BB rate
ETA: Early August
The Braves are in full seller mode and if you read my bold predictions article, you know that there is a good chance Erick Aybar is dealt at the deadline. And though the Braves could turn to Daniel Castro to play shortstop for them in the event of a trade, I see Dansby Swanson excelling in the minors and finishing the season in the majors. Swanson is a potential franchise shortstop and could have a major impact on fantasy owners late in the season. He faces the same problem as Bradley Zimmer however where with there being no guarantee of a promotion, he is not worthy of being stashed.

20. Robert Stephenson (SP, CIN, AAA)
Stats: 134.0 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 9.40 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9
ETA: Early August
The top Reds prospect according to Baseball America, Robert Stephenson made his Major League debut on Thursday, April 7 against the Philadelphia Phillies. The former 2011 27th overall pick lasted five innings, surrendering four runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks while striking out only one.

There are a couple of takeaways from Stephenson’s start for fantasy owners. Number one is that he will be back in the majors again this season and the Reds are not afraid to give him some innings. The second takeaway is to notice that though it is way too early to make much of a fuss about only one strikeout, there is something to be said for the fact that his fastball is no longer a lethal weapon it was once believed to be (average velocity of 91.9 mph). Fantasy owners should not be afraid to own him if he is promoted as he still possesses a lot of potential, but without that upper-90s fastball, he likely will not be an ace like some other pitching prospects.

21. Jesse Winker (OF, CIN, AAA)
Stats: 526 PA, .282/.390/.482, 13 HR, 8 SB, 15.8% K rate, 14.1% BB rate
ETA: Early August

22. Jorge Polanco (SS, MIN, AAA)
Stats: 525 PA, .288/.339/.386, 6 HR, 19 SB, 13.9% K rate, 7.4% BB rate
ETA: Early August

23. J.P. Crawford (SS, PHI, AA)
Stats: 522 PA, .282/.373/.402, 6 HR, 12 SB, 11.5% K rate, 12.5% BB rate
ETA: Late August/September

24. Rio Ruiz (3B, ATL, AAA)
Stats: 489 PA, .233/.333/.324, 5 HR, 2 SB, 19.2% K rate, 12.9% BB rate
ETA: Mid-July

25. Aaron Judge (OF, NYY, AAA)
Stats: 540 PA, .255/.330/.448, 20 HR, 7 SB, 26.7% K rate, 9.8% BB rate
ETA: Early August

26. Brett Phillips (OF, MIL, AA)
Stats: 597 PA, .311/.378/.527, 16 HR, 18 SB, 20.9% K rate, 8.2% BB rate
ETA: September

27. Brian Johnson (SP, BOS, AAA)
Stats: 96.0 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 8.44 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9, 1.10 WHIP
ETA: Mid-June

28. Willson Contreras (C, CHC, AAA)
Stats: 582 PA, .327/.407/.485, 11 HR, 4 SB, 12.2% K rate, 11.0% BB rate
ETA: September

29. Colin Moran (3B, HOU, AAA)
Stats: 417 PA, .306/.381/.459, 9 HR, 1 SB, 18.9% K rate, 10.3% BB rate
ETA: September

30. Jorge Lopez (SP, MIL, AAA)
Stats: 143.1 IP, 2.26 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 8.60 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, 1.10 WHIP
ETA: September

 

MLB Rookie Rankings

1. Corey Seager (SS, LAD)

2. Trevor Story (SS, COL)

3. Byung-Ho Park (1B, MIN)

4. Steven Matz (SP, NYM)

5. Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)

6. AJ Reed (1B, HOU)

7. Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)

8. Lucas Giolito (SP, WAS)

9. Tyler Glasnow (SP, PIT)

10. Kenta Maeda (SP, LAD)

11. Trea Turner (SS, WAS)

12. Blake Snell (SP, TB)

13. Jose Berrios (SP, MIN)

14. Hector Olivera (3B/OF, ATL)

15. Tyler White (1B/3B, HOU)

16. Jon Gray (SP, COL)

17. Orlando Arcia (SS, MIL)

18. Jose Peraza (2B, CIN)

19. John Lamb (SP, CIN)

20. Tyler Goeddel (3B/OF, PHI)

 

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