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FSWA award-winner Eric Samulski dives into the impact that the MLB lockout may have on top prospects from the AL Central and how fantasy baseball managers should proceed.
In part two of this ongoing series, I will cover the top prospects from the American League Central that may be impacted by the lockout imposed by MLB ownership. You can read about AL East Prospects here.
As fantasy baseball managers, we must consider the ramifications of this lockout for minor leaguers. Remember that this is a Major League Baseball lockout, which means that all MiLB training camps are up and running and the seasons are set to start on time. However, all prospects who are already on an MLB 40-man roster are locked out. That means top prospects like Shane Baz, Seth Beer, Joe Ryan, Joey Bart, Julio Rodriguez and many more are not only not getting any at-bats and reps on the practice field, but they are barred from having any communication with their respective organizations. That means no developmental discussion with the pitching coach or no check-ins with the strength and conditioning staff.
That is why I'm going team-by-team to highlight prospects of note that are on a 40-man roster and what this lockout could mean for their fantasy performance this season. Today we'll move to the American League Central where I'll also cover some intriguing prospects who are NOT on the 40-man roster and could see their value increase due to the head start they'll be getting on their teammates. I'll be trying to limit to players who could be fantasy relevant in a 2022 season, should we have one.
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Chicago White Sox
Prospects who are locked out: Gavin Sheets, Jake Burger, Jonathan Stiever, Blake Rutherford, Andrew Vaughn
The White Sox aren't a team whose prospects seem to be particularly impacted by the lockout. I did add Vaughn to the list above because he's just 23-years-old, so having an offseason where he's not able to work with the organization could certainly impact his development. We didn't see the power many people expected from Vaughn during his debut season, so I'm assuming that would be a major focal point of the offseason, but it's hard to know whether we should bet on that improving without him being able to work with his hitting coaches or create a developmental plan with his organization.
Sheets and Burger are also likely to be in competition for the DH spot in the lineup, so neither one of them being able to work with the organization could cause a bit of rust in the start of the season but nothing that concerns me, especially with how Sheets handled himself in his 54 big league games in 2021.
Yoelqui Cespedes, OF
Thus, the only prospect of note here to discuss is Cespedes. I personally believe the White Sox have a hole in RF with Adam Engel slated to start there. The problem for the White Sox is that Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jimenez are all basically suited for LF/1B/DH spots, but there are four of them and only three spots. I can't see the team putting Eloy or Vaughn in RF, so I'm really not entirely sure what they are going to do. They do have a future RF in Cespedes, who has a strong arm and experience in RF at Cuba's highest level.
The 24-year-old got off to a slow start in the states but wound up hitting .285 with eight home runs and 18 stolen bases in 72 games last year. He ended the year by hitting .298 with eight steals in 27 games in Double-A before putting together a pretty poor performance in the Arizona Fall League. He's likely headed to Double-A to begin the year, but he will have the entire offseason to work with the hitting coordinator and continue to play games while the White Sox other outfielders are stuck hitting in a cage. That added game action could give Cespedes a leg up if he comes into camp and performs. However, as I mentioned above, he's really on here because the White Sox don't have many players whose fortunes change drastically with the lockout, so I can't really see Cespedes suddenly emerging as a realistic option in RF. If he performs well early in camp while there is still a lockout, the White Sox may decide to leave Engel at RF in the hopes that Cespedes can push for a summer call-up or a 2023 start of the season.
Cleveland Guardians
Prospects who are locked out: Tyler Freeman, Owen Miller, Nolan Jones, Brayan Rocchio, George Valera, Bryan Lavastida, Gabriel Arias, Konnor Pilkington
That's a long list that includes four of the Guardians' top six prospects (or five of seven depending on your resource) who are locked out and unable to have any communication or do any work with the minor league coaching staff. The good news for Cleveland is that most of these guys weren't in the plans for 2022. Valera, Freeman, and Rocchio were all slated to start the year in Double-A.
Freeman only played 41 games last year due to a shoulder injury, so not being able to meet with the Cleveland medical staff all offseason is a concern when thinking about him hitting the ground running. I'd assume the team is cautious with their 22-year-old this year, which would mean that Arias is in the best position to push for playing time at shortstop in 2022 after hitting .284 in Triple-A as a 21-year-old. I believe that his separation from the organization over the lockout makes it highly unlikely he breaks camp with Cleveland, but I still think he can be on radars if Andres Gimenez struggles, but that likely won't be until the summer.
The likelihood of Nolan Jones cracking the Cleveland outfield out of spring training is also impacted by his inability to work with the hitting coaches over the lockout and, especially being unable to work with the outfield coaches as he continues to try and make the shift. I'd assume the 23-year-old starts out the year in Triple-A, getting more reps in the outfield before hopefully pushing Steven Kwan or Bradley Zimmer out of the starting lineup.
Bo Naylor, C
Naylor is an interesting name for the Indians because Lavastida, who some think will back up Austin Hedges this year, is on the 40-man roster and is not able to workout with the organization right now. That gives Naylor a few extra weeks to try to get a leg-up on his 23-year-old competition. Naylor struggled with a .188 batting average in Double-A last year, so he would need to showcase major offensive improvement to consider leapfrogging Lavastida in terms of MLB debut date, but Naylor is also a potential Gold Glove defender behind the plate who hit ten home runs and stole 10 bases last year.
Given his speed and defense, if the Guardians are confident that he can be a .240 hitter at the big league level, I could see them giving him a chance. Now if I was a betting man, I would assume Naylor spends almost the whole year in the minors, but I think it's also worth keeping an ear out to hear how he's doing in minor league camp.
Peyton Battenfield, SP
With Pilkington unable to work with pitching development coordinators, there is a chance that the 24-year-old Battenfield can push his way to be the "next man up" in the starting pitcher mix. After coming over in a trade with the Rays, Battenfield pitched to a .328 ERA in 35.2 Double-A innings. On the season, he went 7-1 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 131 strikeouts in 103 innings pitched. He's your prototypical "high floor" pitcher who has a mid-90s fastball and solid command of his secondaries but nothing that will knock your socks off. Still, an 11.45 K/9 is nothing to turn your nose up at.
Battenfield will likely begin the year in Triple-A but his work with the organization in minor league camp will determine if they think he is ready for a quick promotion. I personally think there's a strong chance that two of the entire Guardian's starting rotation could be hurt (Shane Bieber) or pitch themselves out of the rotation (Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac) at some point in the first six weeks of the season, so if Battenfield emerges as the SP6, he could definitely be worth a flier in draft-and-hold leagues.
Detroit Tigers
Prospects who are locked out: Joey Wentz, Matt Manning, Isaac Paredes, Daz Cameron
Let's be real, the Tigers' list is all about the two names you don't see listed up there. Yes, Paredes has his fans, but the signing of Javier Baez made it less likely he would crack the starting infield, and Matt Manning could certainly use more development as well, so his inability to meet with pitching development coordinators is likely the biggest impact of any of the names listed above. I had been hoping for him to regain some of his 2019 form, but I find it hard to trust him in any format in 2022 without any kind of normal offseason of development.
The 2020 number one overall pick is a hot commodity in fantasy baseball drafts, with an ADP of 265 over the last two weeks. His status as a player not on the 40-man roster is also helping his cause because he's been in contact with the Tigers all offseason and is in minor league mini-camp now seeing live pitching and working with the team. The Tigers also currently have two open spots on the 40-man roster, so it all seems to be lining up for Torkelson to get a shot with the big club. However, we have to remember that none of the current lockout discussions seem to involve changes to the service time calculator, which means the Tigers have no need to promote their top prospect until they can get another season of control out of him.
We also have to remember that Torkelson is only 22 years old and hit just .238 at Triple-A last year. This is especially important to keep in mind because the struggles of top prospects like Jared Kelenic created a discussion around the diminishing level of talent at Triple-A, suggesting it was not nearly as close to MLB-caliber as it had been. Torkelson's inability to hit for high average against that competition then makes it seems more likely that he would start the year in the minors. This is supported by what I heard when James Anderson, the lead prospect analyst for Rotowire, showed up on the Launch Angle podcast with Rob Silver and Jeff Zimmerman and said that he believes Torkelson will get fewer MLB at-bats this season than his teammate, Riley Greene.
Riley Greene, OF
So why might that be the case? Well, for starters, the Tigers have a weak spot in the outfield with Victor Reyes currently penciled into the starting lineup. Akil Baddoo also struggled to hit left-handed pitching, which could open up more innings for Greene, and Jonathan Schoop is a more than capable first baseman, which means the Tigers don't actually need to rush Torkelson until he is ready. They could, instead, put Schoop at 1B and give Willi Castro another shot at 2B, considering Castro is only 24-years-old and has shown signs of promising talent.
Like Torkelson, Greene was a high first-round pick, being selected fifth overall in 2019. However, unlike his teammate, Greene performed well at Triple-A last year, hitting .308 with eight home runs and four stolen bases in 40 games after being called up from Double-A. So, even though Greene is younger, his success in Triple-A and defensive ability at a position of need make it clear why James Anderson thinks he could see more at-bats than his teammate and makes me more inclined to wait and draft Greene around his 294 ADP. He will likely not be up until the early summer and will have swing-and-miss issues, but the power/speed combination is real and exciting for fantasy.
Kansas City Royals
Prospects who are locked out: Jonathan Bowlan, MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Kyle Isbel, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch
The delayed start could have an impact on a few of the Royals' young pitching prospects. Both Kowar and Lynch made their MLB debuts last year and didn't fare so well, with Lynch pitching to a 5.69 ERA in 68 innings and Kowar notching an inflated 11.27 ERA in 30.1 innings. When the lockout was initiated, both players were cut off from communication with their teams, which means not being able to work with the pitching development coordinators or get feedback on the adjustments they were likely hoping to make in the offseason to counter their poor debuts. As a result, I think it's hard to imagine either player working into the starting rotation in the first month of the season, especially with the Royals having at least five other options. I'm still confident that Lynch can push himself into the rotation over the summer, but his timeline for doing so is going to be slowed by the lockout and ZiPS projection of 119 major league innings seems too high for me.
This also likely delays the debut of Nick Pratto, who I am a big fan of. With Hunter Dozier currently penciled in at 1B, the Royals can keep Pratto in the minors to start the year and see if Dozier struggles or if he can be moved into the outfield to take the place of Kyle Isbel, currently slated to start in RF. Since Pratto is currently on the 40-man, he would be an easy call-up to the majors, and hitting 36 home runs across two levels last year showed that the power is ready. He might hit .230-.240 out of the gate, but he could also easily hit 15+ home runs if he gets 300 plate appearances in the majors.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS
Perhaps the most important name listed in this article, let's be honest. Witt is going the highest of any rookie with an ADP of 83 over the last two weeks. However, the lockout means that I won't have him on any of my teams unless he falls. For starters, let's be clear that Witt is a very good player. We knew that before he hit .285 with 17 home runs and 15 stolen bases at Triple-A last year. However, the Royals knew that too and didn't give him a late-season call-up. That concerns me since, as we mentioned with Torkelson, there seems to be no change coming to incentivize teams to call up their top prospects at the start of the season. That means the Royals could get another year of service time control out of Witt by keeping him down in the minors to start the year. Given that it's the Royals, we have to think that's possible.
There are also some other concerns. For starters, the Royals have a full 40-man roster, so somebody would need to be waived to make room for Witt. That could certainly happen. However, Witt is also slated to start at 3B since the Royals have Nicky Lopez, who is a strong defensive shortstop. Since Witt has only played 18 total games at 3B and only 10 in Triple-A, it's easy to see how the Royals would argue that starting him down in the minors is a chance for him to work on his defense. All of which is to say that I think Witt will produce when he is up, but I'm not sure he's up until after the first month of the season, and in a shortened season, that makes me unlikely to draft him at his ADP.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
I know people are high on Vinnie P, which is understandable given that the 24-year-old hit .300 with 24 home runs and six stolen bases across two levels in 2021. However, it's hard to envision how he and Nick Pratto are both in the Royals' lineup until the 1B and DH spots are both clear. The only other avenue for them both to play in 2022 is for Pratto to move to RF. However, he only had eight innings there in 2021 and has been locked out from working with the organization on making that defensive shift, so it's hard to see Pratto making that move anytime soon, which will make it hard to see Paquantino up in the majors until maybe the end of the season.
Minnesota Twins
Prospects who are locked out: Joe Ryan, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Josh Winder, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker
So there are a bunch of names listed above who I think could be impacted by a delayed start. The first is obviously those top pitching prospects you see listed there. Balazovic and Duran were highly unlikely to break camp with the Twins, but their lack of work with the pitching development coordinators and strength/conditioning coaches could mean that we don't see them in the majors at all in 2022, especially since Balazovic has yet to pitch above Double-A and Duran had a 5.06 ERA in only 16 Triple-A innings for all of 2021. Given that Duran is recovering from an elbow strain that kept him out most of the season, his inability to do his rehab with the team this offseason could be a major issue and one that will likely cause the pace of his development to slow in 2022 as the team makes sure he is 100% healthy.
We also need to talk about Jose Miranda, who many people were hoping would start the year with the Twins, forcing Josh Donaldson into more of a DH-heavy role. Miranda really has nothing left to prove in Triple-A after hitting .343 with 17 home runs in just 80 games at the level last year, but if the Twins have an incentive to keep him down to control his service time, then an even shorter season could make his impact less useful for fantasy managers.
Lastly, I just wanted to highlight that "graduated prospects" Larnach and Rooker are both on the 40-man and have had no contact with the organization this offseason. Considering Larnach hit .223 in his 79 MLB games last year with a 34.6% strikeout rate and Rooker hit .201 with a 33% strikeout rate, it's not crazy to think that the Twins might choose to start one, or both, of them in Triple-A and give playing time to veterans who are currently not on the 40-man like Jake Cave, Kyle Garlick, or Derek Fisher. Obviously, a move would need to be made to put them on the 40-man roster, but since Roster Resource only has the Twins with 38 players on the 40-man at this time, it wouldn't be that difficult.
Curtis Terry, 1B
Terry is a new addition to the Twins organization after hitting .275 with 22 home runs for the Ranger's Triple-A affiliate. He struggled in 48 major league plate appearances, but this is a 25-year-old who is a career .287 minor league hitter with consistent pop and a .876 minor league OPS. Since he's not on the 40-man, he's been working out with his new organization and, perhaps, making a good first impression.
We already mentioned the Twins having space on their 40-man and the potential issues with Larnach and Rooker; however, both guys performed better than Terry in 2021, so I don't see him forcing his way onto the major league roster to start the season. Where Terry becomes interesting is if he makes himself the first 1B/DH call-up when the season begins. That means any injuries to oft-injured guys like Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, or any struggles with Miguel Sano could shift the defensive alignment around and open up an opportunity for Terry, who has the benefit of being in camp and working with coaches now.
Austin Martin, CF/SS
Another player who is in camp and able to work out with coaches is top prospect Austin Martin, who came to the Twins in the Jose Berrios deal. Martin played in Double-A for both organizations last year, hitting .270 with five home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a .414 OBP. He's likely going to begin the year at Triple-A and has solid defensive ability at both shortstop and centerfield. Martin has shown himself to be a plus contact hitter with tremendous plate discipline and the speed to make a difference on the bases. He's likely in a battle with Gilberto Celestino to be the first CF prospect called up (should a need arise), but Celestino is on the 40-man and is not working out with the team right now, which gives Martin a chance to leapfrog him.
Should Martin impress in these early days of minor league camp, he could be the first name called if Byron Buxton were to get hurt, which means Martin is a name to monitor in draft-and-hold formats and could become an interesting insurance policy for deep league managers who draft Buxton.
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