RADIO
Happy Monday! Tonight’s nine-game slate may not be a Coors slate, but it does present some challenges as there aren’t any “big name” pitchers on the docket. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t players we should be targeting, but outside of Joe Ryan, the names may not be as obvious. Despite that, DraftKings did a good job of pricing up the “lesser” named pitchers who are in good spots, so we will have to find some value with our bats to fit those arms into our lineups.
Thankfully, many value bats and stacks in good spots will allow us to fit those arms into our lineups. Pittsburgh, Oakland, and the New York Mets are all in decent offensive spots, and they should come in with low ownerships if you wanted to eat the chalk with one, or both, of your pitching spots.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/29/2024 and the slate locking at 7:07 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Ryan (MIN/RHP) at Chicago White Sox ($10.4K DK, $10.9K FD)
Joe Ryan will be the chalkiest of chalk tonight, but chalk is chalk for a reason and sometimes it’s unavoidable. He has the best matchup on the slate, going up against a White Sox team that can’t hit its way out of a paper bag. Chicago has scored fewer runs at home this season than the Reds did in a three-game series at the Sox home park, Guaranteed Rate Field.
Against right-handers this year, the projected White Sox lineup has an ISO of nearly .110 (.160 is an average ISO) and a wOBA of .275 (an average wOBA is about .320); this offense is on the verge of being historically bad. The team has shown no power against Ryan’s two most frequent pitch types, the four-seam fastball and the split-finger fastball. Ryan faced them in his last start, and he was able to score 24.5 DraftKings points; his fourth game of more than 17 DraftKings points in five starts this year. Ryan is a cash game lock and is viable as a tournament option if you’ve got a contrarian stack that you like.
I present to you the Unlucky Three: Trevor Rogers, Cole Ragans, and Joe Ryan.
Of the 113 pitchers to throw at least 20 innings so far this season, they are the only 3 with a sub-3 FIP and 0 Wins.
-Rogers, 2.85
-Ragans, 2.00
-Ryan, 2.19 pic.twitter.com/1PlUeEaHml— Louis Addeo-Weiss (@addeo_louis00) April 24, 2024
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI/LHP) at Los Angeles Angels ($8.4K DK, $9.5K FD)
Cristopher Sanchez has been surprisingly good this year, posting three games with six or more strikeouts; all of which resulted in games of 19 or more DraftKings points. All three of these games were at home, while this game is on the road, but the matchup for Sanchez is stellar. The Angels have hit for little power and their strikeout-rate is 23% against left-handed pitching on the season. Moreover, every player on the Angles has at least a 26% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers over the last three years against one of Sanchez’s two putaway pitches, the slider.
They don’t strike out nearly as much against his other putaway pitch, the changeup, but only Mike Trout and Brandon Drury have shown any power over the last three years against that pitch. Sanchez’s favorite pitch early in the count is the sinker, and every batter on the Angels outside of Luis Rengifo has an ISO under .175 against that pitch from left-handers over the last three years.
Also Consider: Max Fried, Ryan Pepiot, Bryse Wilson, Nick Lodolo, Jameson Taillon, Garrett Crochet
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Blaze Alexander - SS, ARI vs James Paxton ($3.8K DK, $3K FD)
Blaze Alexander has hammered left-handed pitching this season. He’s got a .281 ISO and .469 wOBA, both second on the team. James Paxton throws his four-seam fastball well over 50% of the time, and last year he allowed a .503 slugging percentage on that pitch to right-handed batters (his lowest slugging percentage allowed on that pitch type since 2018). Alexander has a small sample size against that pitch, but he’s got a .846 wOBA, .727 ISO, and two home runs in eleven at-bats. He can’t sustain that level of success long-term, but it’s a pitch he’s comfortable facing and one that he can do some damage against.
Wili Castro - SS, MIN at Garrett Crochet ($3.1K DK, $2.7K FD)
Yes, we have two value-priced shortstops as recommended plays, which is uncommon, but the data loves both of these guys and they are strong pivots off high-priced chalk options at the position (and you can use both on FanDuel with the utility position). Castro has had success against Garrett Crochet in his career, going three for four with two extra-base hits. Casto is also hot coming into this game, having scored double-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games, all of which were multi-hit games. Crochet throws a slider about 25% of the time, and he’s allowed a .720 slugging percentage on that pitch this year. Castro has a .272 batting average and .273 ISO facing that pitch over the last three years.
Matt Olson - 1B, ATL at Bryce Miller ($5.9K DK, $3.6K FD)
Bryce Miller’s numbers may look good at first glance, but he does not do well when facing left-handed batters. He has allowed a .509 slugging percentage against lefties over the past two seasons, which is a number that gets a twinkle in my eye. Matt Olson isn’t having a great season so far, but he has hit right-handed pitching well over his career and this particular matchup suits him well. Miller throws a four-seam fastball or a split-finger fastball nearly 70% of the time, and Olson crushes those pitches. Over the last three years, he has seen that pitch about 1,800 times, and he’s got a .439 wOBA and .333 ISO against it; both second on the team behind only Marcell Ozuna (who is as hot as any batter in the league).
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Teoscar Hernandez - OF, LAD at Tommy Henry ($4.9K DK, $3.4K FD)
Teoscar Hernandez has always been known as a lefty killer. Tonight’s lefty, Tommy Henry, represents a great matchup for Hernandez as his pitch distribution jives well with the type of pitches that Hernandez likes to hit. Over the last three years, Hernandez has hit a home run 11% of the time when he sees a four-seam fastball from a left-handed pitcher. His .449 wOBA and .364 ISO against that pitch in the last three years are the highest of any batter on the Dodgers. Henry throws that four-seamer 26% of the time, and it’s getting smashed (.667 slugging percentage against this year, after a .500 slugging percentage against last year). Hernandez is also hot right now, having had a hit in five of his last six games, three times hitting double-digit fantasy points over that span.
Teoscar Hernández is just one of those dudes that we knew Dodger fans were going to love!
He just hit his 6th home run of the year and with World Series expectations, his energy is so contagious!
🎥: @SportsNetLA pic.twitter.com/783361OtbK
— Dodgers Nation (@DodgersNation) April 25, 2024
Brandon Marsh, OF - PHI at Griffin Canning ($4.3K DK, $3K FD)
Did you know that Brandon Marsh has only one fewer home run than Kyle Schwarber this year? He also has two more RBI and his batting average is 91 points higher; Marsh has simply been the better player this year and he’s the better play tonight. Griffin Canning has struggled all year, but his biggest issues have been against left-handed bats. Overall, he’s allowed a .502 slugging percentage against lefties this year, but that’s only part of the story.
Canning’s main pitch is his four-seam fastball, which he throws 37% of the time to left-handed bats. This year, he’s allowed a .895 slugging percentage in over 100 at-bats on that pitch against lefties. Over the last three years, Marsh has a .387 wOBA and .249 ISO against four-seam fastballs; this is a perfect matchup for Marsh (who also has a little revenge-game narrative at play as he’s a former Angels player).
DJ Stewart, OF - NYM vs. Jameson Taillon ($2.8K DK, $2.8K FD)
I wrote this last week, and my opinion remains the same: “DJ Stewart against righties.” Stewart has looked strong against right-handed pitching so far in 2024. He’s got a .362 ISO and .476 slugging percentage in 55 at-bats. Tonight’s matchup suits him well, as he’s been strong against all three pitch types that Jameson Taillon prefers to throw, the cutter, four-seam fastball, and curveball.
Against the first two pitches, he trails only Brandon Nimmo among Mets lefties over the last three years with a .337 wOBA and .205 ISO over the last three years. What sets him apart as a strong value player is his success against the curveball; a .756 wOBA and .727 ISO over the last three years. He may have only totaled 11 at-bats against the pitch, but he has three times as many hits (six) as he does strikeouts (two), which is impressive irrespective of his success on top of that.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Philadelphia Phillies at Griffin Canning
Favorite Plays: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner
2. Arizona Diamondbacks vs James Paxton
Favorite Plays: Christian Walker, Blaze Alexander, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk
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