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What's up, RotoBallers! Thunder Dan here with your MLB betting picks this Sunday, June 6th. If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! I will be doing these picks for you every Sunday going forward this Summer. Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
I had a pretty solid start to this column last Sunday as I went 3-1 with my picks with the only miss being the White Sox team total going under by a run. For the sake of transparency, I will keep track of my picks each week even though I am only doing this article once a week
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Last Week: 3-1
Season to Date: 3-1
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIL -250
MIL: Corbin Burnes | ARI: Caleb Smith
You have to like the Brewers at home here as they role out their ace Corbin Burnes (although I suppose you could consider him co-aces with Woodruff and Peralta being awesome this year, too). Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are going with Caleb Smith, who is only making his second start of the season and has been pitching out of the bullpen for most of the year.
There's no value in the money line, and I simply don't make bets that are -200 or greater odds by themselves as a general rule. But there are definitely a few other ways to bet on this game.
Let's focus on the matchup for the Brewers' offense. They've won the first three games of this series and have scored 19 runs in those three games. Their offense was struggling for much of the first two months of the season, but Christian Yelich is back in the lineup and their bats are finally heating up. Their home stadium, Miller Park, is a great park for hitters and this lineup should see a very bad Arizona bullpen for much of this game.
I like the Brewers to finish off the sweep of the D-Backs at home and keep the positive trends going. They've won each of the first three games by two runs or more and scored at least five runs in each game. I'll bank on them doing both of those things again today.
Pick: Milwaukee -1.5 (-105) and Milwaukee Total Runs Scored over 4.5 (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: STL -125
CIN: Wade Miley| STL: John Gant
Is it John Gant regression day yet? We have been stacking against him in DFS just waiting for it to happen - the start in which he finally gets shelled. I will certainly have some Reds stacks today and some money wagered on them in bets, too.
Gant's 1.60 ERA is a mirage. He has a whip of 1.52 and an xFIP over 5. He walks too many guys and has been incredibly lucky as far as avoiding big innings by stranding 87% of the baserunners he allows. It's going to catch up with him sooner or later and this Reds offense has enough power and depth to make him pay.
The Reds have been without Mike Moustakas and Joey Votto for a few weeks now, but guys like Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, and Kyle Farmer have stepped up. They also have two of the top three batting averages in all of baseball with Nick Castellanos (.368) and Jesse Winker (.342) hitting at the top of their lineup.
Pitching for the Reds is an underrated veteran Wade Miley. He's had another solid campaign this year and even threw a no-hitter against Cleveland earlier this season. He's had one bad start all year and while I don't think he will shut out the Cards, I think he'll definitely keep his team in the game and give the offense a chance to win it. Give me the Reds on the road today at plus odds and I'll take their team total, too, which is way too low at only 3.5 runs.
Pick: Cincinnati ML (+110), Cincinnati Total Runs Scored over 3.5 (-137) DraftKings Sportsbook
Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies
O/U: 11.5 | Moneyline: Both Teams -108
OAK: James Kaprielian| COL: German Marquez
Here we have a really solid pitching matchup at Coors, which always draws my attention as far as betting an under. Coors Field is definitely the best park in all of baseball for hitters, but the Vegas totals are always inflated due to the park factor alone. Put it this way, if these two pitchers were facing these offenses in a park with a neutral park factor (let's just say the game was in Oakland instead of Denver) then I think the total would probably be around like 7.5. Is Coors field worth a full four runs?
Listen, the verdict is still out on the youngster Kaprielian as far as just how good he will be and he did get roughed up a bit his last time out, but the Rockies offense is bad. And I am a known German Marquez truther, the guy is good and pitches incredibly well at home. Oakland is a decent offense, but Marquez is really tough on righties and is able to survive pitching half his games at Coors by getting a healthy chunk of ground balls.
It's always a sweat picking the under at Coors, especially once the bullpens (neither team has a very good one) get involved but I'm going to do it!
Pick: Total runs under 11.5 (-108) DraftKings Sportsbook
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