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MLB DFS analyst Dave Swan breaks down the American League Divisional Series with DFS picks and sports betting picks and advice for the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, and Braves.
It's October, and it feels great to have postseason baseball in our lives once again! Now that the opening round of the extended 2020 MLB playoffs has concluded, it's time for the divisional round to begin with the remaining eight teams battling it out in this best-of-five format.
In this article, the focus switches to the National League series, which opens up on Tuesday, October 6th. Something to keep in mind here is that in this condensed postseason, we have no travel days since these games are being played in a bubble, and therefore we could see five games in five days if a series goes the distance. That should favor teams with more pitching depth as the game one ace of a team's staff would have to pitch on two days rest in game four and three days rest in a game five.
Today I'll be breaking down both NL series with some key players to consider for MLB DFS contests this week as well as my favorite bets to lock in now before the series starts (using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook). Without further ado, let's dive into these series breakdowns!
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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Season Series: Atlanta 6-4
Series Odds: Miami (+245), Atlanta (-300)
NL Champs Odds: Miami (+950), Atlanta (+320)
World Series Champs Odds: Miami (+1800), Atlanta (+750)
Projected Pitching Matchups:
Game 1: Sandy Alcantara vs. Max Fried
Game 2: Sixto Sanchez vs. Ian Anderson
Game 3: Pablo Lopez vs. Kyle Wright
Game 4: TBD vs.TBD
Game 5: Alcantara vs. Fried (if necessary)
DFS Impact:
Max Fried will be a chalkier play at starting pitcher and rightfully so. He uses two terrific breaking balls to keep batters from making quality contact. The strikeouts have down a little compared to last year, and that is slightly concerning. It should be noted that the Marlins do not walk much and strikeout a lot vs. LHP.
Sandy Alcantara is an intriguing play. With Fried, Glasnow, and Valdez as likely starters, his salary may make him extremely viable. I wouldn't touch him in any cash games because Atlanta walks over 10% of the time with a robust .220 ISO and .852 OPS vs. RHP. Now, as a GPP play? He can rack up the strikeouts, and the Braves have the third-highest strikeout rate on the slate.
Sixto Sanchez vs. Ian Anderson would be quite the fun game to watch. The two dynamic budding stars have a monsoon of potential in a pivotal game. I really can't wait to catch this game if things line up correctly. Either of those two pitchers may be the one to pair with Kershaw. October 7th will be another full slate, and there will be a move value bats to choose from if you go pitcher heavy.
Pablo Lopez is another top-notch starter the Marlins will toss out on the mound. About two weeks ago, Pablo shut down the Braves by tossing five scoreless innings and only allowing two hits. Can he keep find that mojo again when in counts in the playoffs? If he gets the changeup working to induce groundballs, he could be a great SP option on the day.
The Marlins offense is feeble against right-handed hitting. They struggled all season with an 89 wRC+ and only hit 36 home runs in over 1500 at-bats. Their .120 ISO puts them in less than desirable company near the bottom of the MLB. On the other side, the Braves calling card is to mash RHP. I would expect plenty of stacks to be formulated off of the Braves hitters.
Betting Advice:
Think back to mid-September when the Braves kept launching baseballs into the bleachers in a 29-9 game vs. the Marlins. Yeah, that game was ugly. I don't expect the series to be similar, but there is a reason for the Braves lopsided Moneyline. The clear-cut favorite to advance is the Braves. Fried and Anderson have proven to be a formidable 1-2 punch, and I can't see the Miami magic continuing.
Sadly, while both these teams are on the rise, I do not believe either one will end up representing the National League in the World Series. The Braves have the offensive firepower to stand up against any pitching staff, but the starting rotation lacks depth. If the Padres can take down the Dodgers, I could see the Braves having the upper-hand in that potential series, and taking Atlanta to go any farther than the NLDS feels a bit too risky for my blood.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Season Series: Los Angeles 6-4
Series Odds: San Diego (+210), Los Angeles (-250)
NL Champs Odds: San Diego (+430), Los Angeles (-130)
World Series Champs Odds: San Diego (+850), Los Angeles (+250)
Projected Pitching Matchups:
Game 1: Chris Paddack vs. Walker Buehler
Game 2: Zach Davies vs. Clayton Kershaw
Game 3: Garrett Richards vs. Julio Urias
Game 4: TBD vs. Dustin May/Tony Gonsolin
Game 5: Paddack vs. Kershaw(if necessary)
DFS Impact:
Buehler is a more challenging call because, in his previous start, Dave Roberts pulled him after just four innings pitched. He managed to fan eight Brewers in that game before being replaced by Julio Urias. There is a good chance Buehler gets an innings limit that forces him out of the game early. I love the pitcher, but I would stay away from this one on Tuesday.
Chris Paddack's struggles will continue until he finds that elusive third pitch in his arsenal. Sure, there will be some strikeouts and probably no walks, but he is getting hit all around the yard. The hard-hit% is over 47%, and the Dodgers are not a ballclub you want to hit the ball. Against RHP, the Dodger lead the MLB with 91 HRs, and Paddack is a complete fade for me.
Clayton Kershaw will be an expensive play. After a 13 strikeout performance against the Brewers, Kershaw looks in terrific form to remove the playoff monkey from his back. The velocity is up a tick on his fastball, and the strikeout rate increased this year. On smaller slates, I prefer to pay up for pitching as opposed to hitters. Kershaw will be in many of my lineups.
Game three will be incredibly dicey at best. Will Garrett Richards start for the Padres? It's speculative on my part as they didn't turn to him against the Cardinals, but this series could go five-instead of three. On the flip side, Julio Urias could start game three and piggyback off Buehler like Game 1 vs. the Brewers. I will fade both of these pitchers if they are starters due to the ability of the opposing offenses.
May, Gonsolin, and Davies are all fades (depending on salary). On paper, the stats look terrific but overall, just not enough strikeout potential while they face off against elite-level offenses. If you want to toss any of them in a GPP, I can't fault you, but they look like wildcard plays to me. Not enough certainty during what will be small slates.
Except for Kershaw, the pitching matchups aren't lockdown aces, so there should be an expectation of fireworks in this series. These two offenses are the cream of the crop-first and third in total runs scored. This matchup is not the place to find value bats but rather grab stud established hitters. Selecting bats from this series will cost a pretty penny but has a high return on investment potential.
Betting Advice:
This series may come down to the health of Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger. The phrases I keep reading in the news is "possibly, maybe" both pitchers will be ready for the NLDS. If both were available, I would be placing a bet on the Padres to run the table, but until then, I'm out. The Dodgers have too much going for them and advance.
The Dodgers are the favorite to win the World Series for many reasons: dynamic hitting, great defense, loaded bullpen, and solid starting pitching depth. I am a fan of saying anything can happen, especially in the playoffs, but this Dodgers squad looks unbreakable. I would expect them to cruise into the World Series and be hoisting the trophy after this wacky season.
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