Wide Receiver Fallers for Fantasy Football Drafts: ADP Analysis for Russell Gage, Christian Watson, Garrett Wilson

August 25, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at fantasy football wide receiver fallers for 2022 drafts. These are potentially overvalued wide receivers to be avoided based on ADP.

Welcome back to another article in our fantasy football ADP draft risers and fallers – today we'll be looking at wide receiver risers. I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from late July to late August using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three fallers at wide receiver.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Fallers

Russell Gage, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I've written a lot of good things about Russell Gage in the past few months since he signed with Tampa as a free agent this offseason. It always made sense to have Gage as a clear winner for fantasy (and real life, not going to lie) purposes entering the 2022 campaign, but the truth is that the news we've gotten coming out of Florida for the past few weeks have folks out there taking precautionary measures. Just peep at the steadily falling ADP.

The first negative on Gage's projections came attached to the news of Julio Jones signing a one-year deal with the Bucs. The Bucs which, remember, already had the trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage in tow when they pulled off the signing of yesteryear-great Julito. Unless Tampa deploys a four-wideout, no-tight-end scheme, someone will be left out on most plays.

The second negative came attached to the reports speaking of a quick recovery from injury by Chris Godwin, who might be available already come Week 1. Odds are he's not, but he is already out of the PUP list so that's certainly pleasing for those having shares of the wide receiver.

The most obvious knock though is related to Gage's injury around two weeks ago (Aug. 10): a hamstring injury that the franchise is listing as a day-to-day issue for the receiver. Gage should be ready for Week 1, but we'll see if he's at 100% capacity and, even then, if he edges Jones for the WR3 role or if Tampa decides to make it a timeshare affair.

I don't need to say that drafting Gage at anything past the sixth round is a bargain, let alone later than the 10th round as is the case these days (ADP of 125). You're going to get snipped by a savvy GM if you wait for him that much, so don't let Gage slip past the 70th pick at most. He's projected (via PFF) for a WR20 finish while his ADP is that of the WR45. Seriously.

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Even with Aaron Rodgers still playing football in Green Bay and as sad as it is, the Packers don't have a WR projected to more than 190 PPR points (via PFF) for the upcoming season with Allen Lazard's 188.9 PPR being the highest projections among Packers at the position, which would translate to a measly WR40 finish.

Yes, what you're thinking is right: if Lazard is the best Packer, then where is rookie Christian Watson? Sit tight, folks. Watson projects to just 118.6 PPR points, a WR77 finish... yet he's getting drafted as the WR61 as I'm writing this.

That, obviously, doesn't make any sense at all. And that, also, is why fantasy GMs once and for all seem to be catching up with the ridiculousness of it all and are savagely fading the rookie off their drafts as they should.

When and if Rodgers decides to target Watson heavily and make him a priority of his in the passing game, maybe then, and only then, will you want to add Watson from the WW. He should be sitting there in most of the reasonably constructed and standard leagues.

If you have a fantasy team in a 20-team league you might find some appeal in Watson. If you don't, you don't have to think too hard about whether you should or should not draft this man.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson's ADP has experienced two separate drops in the past months. The first one took place in the last week of July, then there was a stable period where it stayed mostly the same, and finally, the ADP collapsed once more once Zach Wilson got injured and reports talked about a potential four-to-six-week absence by the sophomore QB.

Truth be told, the Jets have an all-around nice team but they don't really have anyone at any skill position (nor a QB, for that matter) that screams greatness as soon as this season kicks off. The receiving corps is relatively good as a unit but doesn't feature a clear-cut honcho.

The tight ends are good, but the position smells like a TEBC timeshare more than a one-man show. The backfield is stocked but that, for fantasy purposes, is a killer as the points will be shared more than you'd want or like.

As is always the case in the doggy summer months, training camp reports are either glowy or murky. Garrett Wilson fell in the former group ("the ultimate competitor!", "lighting up the Jets camp!", etc, etc...) but even then it's hard to fully buy into the rookie with the situation he'll be playing in this season – let alone the context for the first few weeks since Zach Wilson is back available.

I'm a sucker for Wilson and I think he's (not that it needs to be written, but just in case) one of the best rookies in his class. Even then, fantasy GMs out there know that they'd need to pay a ton for a player that 1) is still unproven in the NFL and 2) will have Joe Flacco tossing him the ball. Alas: the ADP fall.

The projections say WR52 and the ADP is currently at... WR52. Even cost with the trend saying Wilson will become a positive-ROI returner this year, though at his current ADP you're probably better off gambling on another player and hoping Wilson is available/ends in the WW later.

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Fantasy Football Analysis