7 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Jeremy Heist's 2026 Picks

March 6, 2026

Jeremy Heist's 7 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for George Kirby, Hunter Brown, Gabriel Moreno and more.

As we head into March and the fantasy baseball draft season really starts ramping up, there's no better time for some bold predictions. While most fantasy content is geared to give you the most possible information to find even the slightest edge to crush your draft and win your league, bold predictions are the time to let loose and make some claims that, let's face it, probably won't come true.

However, just because it's unlikely that all seven are correct doesn't mean they are useless or lacking helpful insights. The players mentioned in this article still serve as some of my favorite breakouts and busts, and capitalizing on these players could make or break your season.

Without further ado, here are my seven bold predictions for the 2026 season. Whether you agree or disagree, be sure to check out other bold predictions from the rest of RotoBaller's MLB team as part of our yearly Bold Predictions series.

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George Kirby Finishes as a Top-7 SP

George Kirby was one of the most consistent fantasy aces from 2022 to 2024, with his best year coming in 2023 when he posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 172 strikeouts in 190 2/3 innings to be the ninth most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy. However, his 2025 got off to a bad start with shoulder inflammation knocking him out until May 22. He wasn't quite himself upon returning, finishing with a 4.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts.

However, those ratios don't necessarily tell the whole story. In his first two starts of the season after returning from the shoulder injury, he gave up 11 combined runs in 8 2/3 innings. From that point forward, Kirby posted a much better 3.68 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. If you take it a step further by removing the two other blow-up starts he had on August 17 and September 3, when he gave up a combined 14 runs, his ERA suddenly drops to 2.77 and his WHIP to 0.98.

Of course, it's not shocking news to say that if you remove each pitcher's worst four starts, their stats look significantly better. However, it is important to note that Kirby was the same ace we are used to seeing outside of those four bad days. While I can't completely excuse him for the bad starts later in the year, I do truly believe we can discard those first two starts back after returning from injury.

On top of that, and possibly even more encouraging, is that he increased his strikeout rate from 23.0% in 2024 to 26.1% in 2025, striking out 137 batters in 126 innings. Even when the 28-year-old was a top-10 fantasy pitcher in the past, the lack of strikeouts was always his biggest weakness. If he can carry those punchout gains into 2026 while avoiding implosion outings, I think he finishes as a top-7 starting pitcher with a current ADP of SP16 on NFBC drafts since the start of February.

George Kirby ties his career high with 14 strikeouts! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VTUdRDGO80

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025

Hunter Brown Finishes Outside of the Top-20 SP

Hunter Brown was sensational in 2025, finishing as the fifth-best starting pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 206 strikeouts in 185 innings. However, I'm not betting on a repeat performance.

For one, his 3.39 SIERA ranked 11th among qualified starting pitchers (which is still great), but it also shows he had some luck to finish with the third-best ERA. He had a 3.77 SIERA in both 2024 and 2023, and his ERAs in those seasons were 3.49 and 5.09, respectively. That's not to say I think he will have a 5.00 ERA again in 2026, but a 3.50 mark is much more likely.

For reference, Brown's ATC projections are currently a 3.48 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and he is projected to finish as SP 15 in 5x5 roto.

The other aspect of his game that is likely to regress is his strikeouts. While he posted an 83rd-percentile 28.3% strikeout rate in 2025, his 27.8% whiff rate (71st percentile) and 29.4% chase rate (63rd percentile) were less impressive, and the 27-year-old's first strike rate was only 55.7%, which was dead last among the 52 qualified pitchers.

Brown is an extremely easy fade for me with his current price as SP8 in the current NFBC ADP. While he's still a good pitcher, I think a repeat of his top-10 finish is unlikely, and just a little bad luck could quickly spiral him outside of the top-20 by season's end.

Kris Bubic Finishes as a Top-25 SP

Kris Bubic was a popular sleeper pick heading into 2025, and he delivered on those expectations to the tune of a 2.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 116 strikeouts in 116 1/3  innings before being knocked out for the remainder of the season by a rotator cuff strain. 

However, he showed in those 20 starts that he could translate his success as a reliever in late 2024 into dominance as a starter in 2025, and he should be fully healthy for 2026. The durability will be a concern, but he’s proven himself to put up great numbers when healthy. The 28-year-old doesn’t blow guys away with velocity, but relies on a diverse arsenal to induce weak contact, which is evidenced by his 87.6 mph average exit velocity (87th percentile) in 2025.

It was nice to see Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic on the mound. Bubic had his four-seamers up in the zone, with sliders and changeups low in the zone.

-Changeups were effective against RHH (44.4% SwK)
-Solid four-seam IVB (17-18 inches)
-Main concern is health,… pic.twitter.com/TlRwykwDoJ

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) March 2, 2026

With a current cost of SP61 in drafts, he's apparently lost most of the hype from last offseason, despite delivering on those expectations. As far as pitching injuries go, it could have been much worse, as it's not like Bubic is recovering from surgery. Even with the injury risk, his upside far outweighs his current price, and the lefty could be one of the biggest breakouts of 2026 as he is going outside the top 200 picks in both Yahoo and NFBC drafts.

Five 2B Drafted Outside of the Top-12 Finish as Top-12 2B

Second base is the shallowest position in fantasy, and one way to play around that is to prioritize the elite guys at the position. However, in recent years, it has also paid to take the opposite approach. The production at the position as you near the end of the top-12 is so bad compared to other positions that it has been extremely volatile, with a trend of very late-round players massively overperforming their ADP.

For example, Nico Hoerner and Brandon Lowe were both drafted outside the top-15 at the position last year, and ended up as the third and sixth best options at the position. Jorge Polanco probably went undrafted in most leagues and finished seventh. In 2024, Ketel Marte finished first (ADP 9th), Brice Turang finished fourth (ADP 17th), and Maikel Garcia finished ninth (ADP 18th). 

I’m predicting 2026 to be no different, and the names outside of the top 12 second basemen in NFBC ADP since February 15 include Matt McLain, Jose Caballero, Polanco, Otto Lopez, Gleyber Torres, Luis Garcia Jr., and Marcus Semien. 

McLain is only a few years removed from looking like one of the most exciting options at the position and has been crushing it this spring, Polanco and Semien are two vets who have both been elite in the past and will both be in a better hitting environment with the Mets this season, Garcia Jr. was being drafted in the top nine at the position just one year ago, and Lopez and Torres both snuck into the top 12 in value last year.

Caballero is my least favorite of the group, but even he has nearly unmatched stolen base potential on a per-game basis. 

Each of those names brings something different to the table, allowing you to spend draft capital elsewhere and snag the one that fits your team the best in the later rounds. Outside of the top three second basemen (Chisholm, Marte, Turang), I feel like the rest is the equivalent of a dice roll. My prediction is that five of those players finish in the top 12, meaning they’d have to beat out the majority of Hoerner, Altuve, Keaschall, Rafaela, Albies, Lowe, Edwards, Stott, and Holliday. 

Isaac Paredes Outperforms Alex Bregman

Isaac Paredes and Alex Bregman are two very similar types of hitters, at least in regard to how they produce their power. They both excel at pulling the ball in the air, with Paredes the league leader with a 38.5% pull AIR rate, and Bregman producing a 24.4% clip. Bregman is the better hitter, so he doesn’t need to rely on the gimmick as much as Paredes, but it is amazing just how good the latter is at pulling the ball directly down the third-base line, as shown in the spray chart below.

It’s also fitting that Paredes is in Houston at Bregman’s former home park, and Bregman is now with the Cubs, where Paredes spent the second half of 2024. Daikin Park is one of the best ballparks for right-handed pullside power, while Wrigley is one of the worst. That was a fact Paredes learned firsthand: he hit three home runs in 52 games for the Cubs, compared to 20 homers in 102 games for the Astros. 

Bregman should still be a useful fantasy hitter, but I am expecting at least some decline, particularly in power. That should leave room for Paredes to sneak past him in value, who could easily hit 30 bombs in a full season in Houston. Of course, the “full season” part is another reason why this claim is bold, considering that as of now, Paredes isn’t even set to be an everyday player.

However, I think he’s too good to be kept out of the lineup, and he was half of the return for Kyle Tucker, after all.

He’s getting reps at second base this spring, and on top of playing against lefties, he could have the opportunity of rotating between first, second, third, and designated hitter against righties, depending on which starter needs a day off. Especially considering that the starting foursome is injury-prone Yordan Alvarez and veterans Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa, some injuries and rest days are almost certainly on the horizon. 

Gabriel Moreno Finishes as a Top-6 Catcher

Gabriel Moreno was one of my bold predictions last season, and I can’t help myself from going back. A broken finger sidelined him for over two months and kept him from truly breaking out, but in the 83 games he did play, he slashed .285/.353/.433 with nine home runs. 

The excellent batting average is nothing new for the 26-year-old, who boasts a .281 mark for his career, but the power has always been lacking due to a very high ground-ball rate. That is, until last season, when he finally made those launch angle adjustments that he needed to. The backstop decreased his ground-ball rate from 49.6% to 39.4%, and boosted his pull-air rate from 7.8% to 14.6%.

Those aren’t some small coincidental changes, but instead they signify an approach change that could finally give Moreno the chance to be a great fantasy catcher. 

His stats from last season represent a 150-game pace of 16 home runs, 72 RBI, and 79 runs with a .285 average, and those are shockingly similar numbers to Yainer Diaz in 2024 when he was the third most valuable catcher in fantasy. With an ADP outside of the top-12, you can essentially get him for free at the end of drafts in one-catcher leagues, and I believe he has top-6 upside. 

Jackson Merrill Finishes Outside of the Top-25 OF

I already know this will be the least popular of my bold predictions, as Merrill is being named as one of the biggest breakout candidates among many others in the industry. He’s being drafted as the 16th outfielder off the board in Yahoo leagues (and 14th in NFBC leagues), but many are expecting a top-10 season from the youngster. 

For me, there’s just not enough track record there to get on board. Sure, he was great in 2024 with 24 homers, 16 steals, and a .292 batting average, but he followed that up with a complete flop in 2025. The 22-year-old hit .264 with 16 homers and one steal in 115 games. The one stolen base is the biggest concern, because what proof do we have that he will be willing to run again in 2026?

He’s fast with 79th percentile sprint speed, but that isn’t the type of blazing speed that guarantees someone to be a steals specialist. 

Those in the Merrill fan club will point out that he dealt with a hamstring strain, a concussion, and a sprained ankle last season, and those could explain the lack of production. While that’s probably true to some extent, who’s to say that the Padres won't want to continue to cut back on unnecessary baserunning in 2026 to avoid Merrill getting banged up again? 

There’s also the fact that his batting average dropped 28 points between the two seasons, which is what gave him so much of an edge in his rookie year. Without the top-tier average, the 24 homers and 16 steals aren’t the type of outlier numbers that would make him an elite fantasy asset. That would look more like a recent Michael Harris II season, where people continue to wait for another step forward that never seems to come.     

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Merrill perform as a top-20 outfielder, but I am firmly out on him as anything close to a breakout candidate. If he doesn’t get back to stealing any bases at all, then a finish outside the top-25 could be a harsh reality for many fantasy managers who drafted him in the early rounds. 

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