Is Quentin Johnston Bound To Be A Bust Or Can He Rebound From His Rookie Season?

January 28, 2024

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston disappointed in his rookie season. Is he destined to be a bust in the NFL or can he turn it around? Andrew Ball analyzes Johnston's career so far.

"...At 6-foot-4 ... weighing 215 pounds ... from TCU ... Quentin Johnston!!!"

Johnston's profile emulates a starting shooting guard in the NBA. Not only does he have the size of an elite athlete, but his speed enticed NFL general managers last April. With that blend of length, build, and agility, how could he fail?

Inconsistency with route-running, leverage, and his hands prevented the rookie from climbing the depth chart. When he was on the field, production faltered. Athleticism isn't everything, as has been proven time and time again in NFL history. Johnston was a letdown, but is it too soon to label one of the more enticing rookie wide receivers a bust?

Highlights of Quentin Johnston's Rookie Season

Bear with me while I list Johnston's accomplishments in year one.

• Two touchdowns, from one yard and six yards out
• Five receptions of 20+ yards (including back-to-back plays in Week 14 versus Denver)
• Drew some timely pass interference calls

The biggest "highlight" for the first-round pick was a lowlight when a potential game-winning touchdown bounced right off his hands. That became the lasting image of Johnston's dreadful season.

Dunking on his failures is a popular activity on social media, but there aren't many positives to point out. The one-yard touchdown against Detroit was completely uncontested. The six-yard score was a good curl route, but the Chargers were down 49 points deep in the fourth quarter when he secured six. Similarly, his two long catches against Denver happened during a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter with Easton Stick under center. The one for 57 yards, in fairness, was a nice connection.

Quentin Johnston Versus Other First-Round Busts

The wide receiver position is nothing like quarterback or tight end. Rookies under center or on the end of the line often struggle in year one. While receivers don't post career highs in their debut campaigns (unless your name is Puka Nacua), a 1,000-yard campaign isn't out of the question. 13 rookie wideouts have crossed that threshold since 2013, including Johnston's teammate Keenan Allen. The majority of those were selected in the first round. Four (Allen, Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown, and Nacua) were not.

Nacua may have been the only rookie to reach quadruple digits, but several other rookies were knocking on the door. Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison both finished over 900 yards. Tank Dell was on pace to reach 1K before his season-ending leg injury. Zay Flowers, selected one pick after Johnston, tallied 858 yards in a run-heavy offense. That makes Johnston's 431 yards even more disappointing.

But enough about the good players in the NFL. They stick around. Johnston has stats comparable to the biggest busts of the last decade, including fellow TCU alums Jalen Reagor and Josh Doctson. Johnston did not have a single top-24 fantasy finish. There were no flashes of breakout potential. Johnston's yards per route run ranked 89th among all wideouts. For reference to the table below, Nacua posted 2.72 yards per route run, the sixth-best in the league.

*Note: Doctson's stats were taken from his second season. He only played two games in his rookie year due to injury.

Harry and Doctson were out of the league within a handful of seasons. Reagor played for three teams in four seasons. John Ross and Laquon Treadwell had similarly disappointing debut campaigns, although the latter is somehow still hanging around the league. The jury is still out on Jameson Williams, who has battled through an injury and suspension in his first two seasons. His numbers don't exude confidence but he has time (and excuses) to figure it out.

Mike Williams is the lone exception. He dealt with back and knee issues in his rookie season. He posted double-digit touchdowns his second time out. That's the glimmer of hope for Johnston and his dynasty fantasy managers. After all, the theory was that Johnston was drafted to be Williams' replacement.

The Future Of The Los Angeles Offense

The Los Angeles Chargers, though unintentional, gave us somewhat of a glimpse into their near future. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams found themselves done for the season with injuries. Young wideouts Joshua Palmer (although not necessarily in the long-term plans for the Chargers) and Johnston were called upon to be the go-to options in the passing game. Palmer had some productive outings in those final four games, including 113 yards and a touchdown versus Las Vegas. Johnston never topped 30 yards in that span.

Justin Herbert was not in uniform for that stretch either, which does paint somewhat of an unclear picture. Then again, Johnston surpassed the 50-yard mark just once in Herbert's 12 complete games. Easton Stick, Herbert's understudy, averaged a respectable 237.5 yards per game as a starter. Still didn't help Johnston.

Herbert is the constant. The variables are all around him. Williams will be a free agent after next season, although the team could move on from him this summer if they so choose. The same goes for Allen, who will be 32 years old when the next season kicks off. Palmer is free to find another team after the 2024 season.

General manager Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley were both let go during the season. Incoming coach Jim Harbaugh and the soon-to-be new general manager have no allegiance or commitment to seeing Johnston succeed. They didn't spend the draft capital on him. That's not ideal for a player who flubbed his way through his rookie season.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Value Of Quentin Johnston

Just like Bryce Young, Johnston's dynasty value is severely diminished. Johnston was the third wide receiver selected in rookie drafts last summer in the middle-to-end of the first round. Fellow first-round picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison were valued slightly more.

JSN and Addison, although not in the same order, are still ranked above Johnston in this class. But the latter has been surpassed by a handful of soon-to-be sophomores. The aforementioned Puka Nacua is the leader of the pack. Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, and Josh Downs are (depending on the player) tiers ahead of Johnston. Arguments can be made for Demario Douglas, Michael Wilson, Marvin Mims Jr., Jonathan Mingo, Jalin Hyatt, and Dontayvion Wicks, depending on personal preference.

His value could take another hit come April. Although the defense will be a major issue for the incoming general manager, surrounding Justin Herbert with more weapons will be on the to-do list. As stated before, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams aren't long for Southern California. Mock drafts across the web link the Chargers to receivers Malik Nabers (LSU) and Rome Odunze (Washington), as well as tight end Brock Bowers (Georgia).

If any of those selections come to fruition, Johnston would become, at best, the fourth option in the 2024 passing game. Dyntasy managers should hold the former Horned Frog and hope that the new regime better sets him up for success. At this point, Johnston's chances for success rivals a third-round rookie selection.

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