Is Bryce Young Bound To Be A Bust Or Can He Rebound From His Rookie Season?

January 28, 2024

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young disappointed in his rookie season. Is he destined to be a bust in the NFL or can he turn it around with a new coaching staff?

Nothing but disappointment.

That was the story of the Carolina Panthers in 2023. With enough talent on their roster to win seven games in 2022, team executives saw a quarterback as their missing piece. They traded up to select Bryce Young with the first overall pick and paired him with Frank Reich, a coach known for developing quarterbacks.

Instead, Reich was let go midway through the year, winning one game. The team secured two victories all season and doesn't own a first-round pick this year. Bryce Young was a letdown, but is it too soon to label the 2023 1.01 a bust, or was his poor play due to his supporting cast and situations outside of his control?

Highlights of Bryce Young's Rookie Season

To be fair, there weren't a lot of positives. When analyzing the future of a young quarterback, you hope to see flashes of brilliance during the bumpy, early years. Joe Burrow, for example, had rough patches in his debut season, but you could see a star in the making.

Young, at least in the fantasy football realm, had two outlier weeks. Twice he finished with over 20 fantasy points. Only once did he end the week as a QB1. Before, after, and in between, there were a whole lot of single-digit performances.

His first 20-point game was in Week 5 against Detroit. Two of his three touchdowns came after the Panthers were down 25 points. He also tossed two interceptions. It was the definition of empty stats.

The true glimmer of hope was versus Green Bay in Week 16. It was his first (and only) 300-yard passing game. Down 14 points in the fourth quarter, Young engineered two touchdown drives to tie the game. After the Packers kicked a field goal with 19 seconds remaining, the rookie got his team in field goal range, but ultimately one second too late.

Bryce Young Versus Other First-Round Busts

Any NFL fan can rattle off first-round busts at the quarterback position without Googling a list. It's typically very apparent in his first couple of seasons that a quarterback won't pan out. There are rare cases, like Drew Brees, but for the most part, we know when a guy doesn't have the chops to cut it in the NFL.

One of the biggest indicators of quarterback success is the touchdown rate. Young scored on 2.1% of his passes. That was good for 33rd in the league among qualified quarterbacks. Brock Purdy led the league at seven percent. 21 quarterbacks finished four percent or better.

Comparing Young's touchdown rate to other notable first-round busts (and some whom the jury is still out on), there are ample reasons to be concerned about his career trajectory.

Zach Wilson has already cemented his bust status. Kenny Pickett is about to lose his job after two years. The Cardinals gave up on Josh Rosen after one crummy season. David Carr was not the face of the Texans franchise. Young's touchdown rate is similar to all of those busts. C.J. Stroud's touchdown rate was 4.6%.

Both Mitch Trubisky and Blake Bortles spiked in their second seasons (Carson Wentz too, for what it's worth). Each dropped right back down in their third go-around.

The two interesting case studies are Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. The latter won't ever be one of the better passers in the league but back-to-back seasons of better than four percent is encouraging, especially when factoring in what he can do with his legs. Lawrence, meanwhile, regressed in nearly every major passing category. He has the most turnovers since entering the league. He seemed destined for a market-setting contract extension. He'll surely be the franchise QB in Jacksonville for several more years, but the "generational talent" tag he was hit with while entering the draft appears to be misused.

The Future Of The Carolina Offense

"The way he throws the ball, the way he’s a point guard, how you can use the different players on the field, how you might not have to have as many elite receivers because he’s the point guard, right? So he distributes the ball to people with routes. So we can save some money there, we can save money in other places and put that money on the defensive side of the ball." - David Tepper, Owner, Carolina Panthers

That was what Panthers owner David Tepper had to say in April 2023, following the selection of Young. Team brass viewed Young as a quarterback who could do it all, noting that they didn't need elite options at wide receiver, tight end, or running back. Young would find a way to make his teammates better.

They set him up with aging veteran Adam Thielen, journeyman tight end Hayden Hurst, injury-prone D.J. Chark, and second-round rookie Jonathan Mingo, who struggled with separation in his college career. Young was fated to fail in his rookie year. Even the best quarterbacks need threats on the outside. Patrick Mahomes can attest to that.

The free agents Carolina added in the 2023 offseason are likely to remain on the roster in the new year. Thielen, Hurst, and Miles Sanders are all under contract. Their deals could be restructured but it wouldn't open up a ton of cap space. That's going to be a problem for the new general manager. The Panthers are roughly middle of the pack when it comes to salary cap space, but those numbers will be crunched should the team re-sign, extend, or tag defensive cornerstones like edge rusher Brian Burns, defensive tackle Derrick Brown, or linebacker Frankie Luvu.

Draft capital is even more worrisome. To acquire the rights to Young, the Panthers dealt a pair of first-round picks, two second-round picks, and wide receiver D.J. Moore (Young could have used him, huh?) to the Chicago Bears. If Carolina still owned the top selection, they'd be baiting other teams to go select their franchise quarterback, while the Panthers received further draft capital and selected Marvin Harrison Jr. If only...

Barring a trade, the Panthers' first selection is 33rd overall (first pick of the second round). This draft class is loaded with talented receivers. It's not unreasonable to think that the Panthers will select one with that pick. But there are a lot of holes on this roster. The 2024 wide receiver free agent class is top-heavy. Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Marquise Brown, and Calvin Ridley are all seeking new contracts. Pittman and Evans seem like the most unlikely to switch teams. Higgins and Ridley could be attainable, but will they move the needle enough for Young?

Carolina, as hinted at above, is bringing in a completely new regime. Frank Reich was handed a pink slip after just 11 games. A 1-10 start is a fireable offense, and oscillating play-calling duties between himself and offensive coordinator Thomas Brown didn't do Young any favors. Early coaching changes have proved to be detrimental to inexperienced signal-callers. Young will be learning an entirely new offense in 2024. Hopefully, for his sake, it's a coach with an offensive background.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Value Of Bryce Young

The negatives on Young's draft profile proved to be true in his debut season. There's nothing he can do about his small frame and that didn't seem to be a big detriment to his game. Young only had six pass attempts batted down at or near the line of scrimmage.

His deep ball accuracy, reluctance to run, and ability to find his reads quickly were the pitfalls in 2023. Young led the league in bad throw percentage (21.5%), 34th in deep ball completion percentage (22.8%), and 33rd in deep ball catchable pass rate (35.1%). That's despite constantly playing in a negative game script and attempting the 12th-most passes in the league.

Young can be an efficient runner but doesn't take off often. Coaches may be protecting him, but there are also plays to be made that can help the team win. His offensive line was less than stellar. Young had a protection rate of just under 84 percent (24th in the league) when under center. He faced the third-most pressures of any quarterback. But when it came time to make a play with his feet, Young declined. He averaged just 2.4 carries per game, 42nd among quarterbacks. But his 253 yards ranked 11th. When he did rush, good things happened.

Offensive line issues aside, Young took his time in the pocket. He averaged 2.5 seconds per dropback. Unfortunately, out of his 150 pressures, he was sacked 62 times. That was only behind Sam Howell, who played one more game than Young. His receivers had terrible separation numbers (not a surprise). Instead of scrambling when nobody was open, Young took a sack. Those should be plays he learns to make in his second year.

Despite all that, Young owns a prolific college résumé and it doesn't appear that his confidence has wavered through the tumultuous campaign.

Young will always be attached to C.J. Stroud, who was selected one pick later by the Houston Texans. Stroud will be the Rookie of the Year, led his team to the postseason (with a revolving door on the offensive line and a subpar running game for the first half of the season), and secured a postseason victory. Stroud has easily surpassed Young in dynasty rankings. Fourth-overall pick Anthony Richardson, who only appeared in four games, is a hotter commodity than Young.

Young's trade value in dynasty leagues is the lowest it's been. There's also little reason to try and trade him, especially in 2QB or Superflex leagues. The return won't be worth the capital used to select him last offseason. Holding Young and hoping that the new regime better sets him up for success is the best course of action.

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