RADIO
Just as I had battled my way back to .500 on the season I promptly went 0-4 on picks I made in Wednesday's article. Those types of nights happen, unfortunately, and it comes with the territory. But I could just as easily go 4-0 tonight and reverse the trend, which is what I intend to do! There are "only" nine NBA games tonight, which is a fairly light Friday schedule but that's plenty from which to choose.
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, December 30. Let's take a look at the games that I am targeting with wagers tonight.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 78-83
- Against the Spread: 38-38
- Game/Team Totals: 11-21
- Moneyline Parlay: 10-16
- Teasers: 18-7
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Phoenix Suns (+2) @ Toronto Raptors (224 total)
These are two very hard teams to figure out right now, and as much as I want to stay away, I am drawn to this game as we have a number of other games that don't stand out one way or the other in terms of their total or spread compared to my daily projections.
This game does, because Phoenix has been the better overall team this season, though they are in a really rough patch right now with Devin Booker out a month and a number of other important pieces on the shelf in Cam Johnson and Landry Shamet. They lost badly to Washington the other night, but also have a recent win over Memphis and a close loss to a good Denver team. The Raptors got beaten pretty handily by Memphis last night and dropped a game to the Clippers earlier this week, too. They were without their point guard Fred VanVleet last night and he's currently questionable for this one.
If FVV plays, then I think Toronto has a fighting chance. If he sits, then I think Phoenix can win here and bounce back behind the strong play of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. I like getting the value on the Phoenix side at +115, so let's ride the road dogs in our first pick and see if the Suns can get back on track against the ailing Raptors.
The Pick: Suns ML (+115)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+6.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (228 total)
The Bucks have not been themselves lately, having dropped four straight games. I could excuse the losses to Cleveland, Boston, and Brooklyn as those are the other top 3 teams in the East right now, but they even lost to the Bulls on Wednesday, a team that is a clear tier below the top group in my eyes.
They didn't have Holiday on Wednesday and it looks like they won't have him tonight, either. Without Holiday and Middleton, Giannis just simply has to do too much and the supporting cast isn't strong enough around him.
Minnesota has lost four in a row, too, but they've been competitive every night and three of those four losses were by five points or less including Wednesday's heartbreaker to the Pelicans when they let Zion take over and win the game in the closing seconds. Anthony Edwards is playing great right now and the Wolves have rallied around him while KAT has been out.
I think Minnesota's size will be an issue for the Bucks, it's not just Gobert, but the solid play from Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels as well. Minnesota will battle here and I don't see any reason to think this Bucks team in it's current state should be this heavily favored. This game is far closer to a coin flip than that.
The Pick: Wolves +6.5 (-110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game and Team Totals
Utah Jazz (+3) @ Sacramento Kings (240.5 total)
So I was on the Jazz-Warriors game to go over 232 the other night and it finished at...219. The Jazz totals are usually pretty juiced as they like to play fast and the Kings' totals are always high, too, because of how good they are offensively and mediocre they are on defense.
Having said that, I am on the under here as I think this number feels far too high and I like taking shots at going under really high totals and over on really low totals. In order for games to go over their totals, they not only have to be played fast but also efficiently on offense. If either one of those things doesn't happen (the game slows down, or the teams shoot poorly while playing fast) then the under has a real chance. I have this one projected at 235 and the -5.5 point differential from my projection to the current spread is the highest of any game tonight. Both teams have hit overs more often than unders, but the numbers still point to an under here and I'm taking a shot at it (thought it is my least confident of the three bets tonight, be warned!)
The Pick: UNDER 240.5 (-110)
MONEYLINE PARLAY
CHI + WAS + ATL = (+142 DK)
UNDERDOG TEASER
MIN +11, PHO +6.5, DET +12.5 = (+150 DK)
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