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It's easy to have a case of "the Mondays" as we trudge back to our nine-to-fives and have to wait another five days for the weekend. But fear not, RotoBallers, because we have seven NBA games to watch and/or wager on tonight! Monday Night Football is fine and all, but the NBA provides us with some really fun matchups tonight and you know which games I'd rather be watching!
I am making every attempt to do these picks for you every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday this season - on the days that usually have the most games so that we can be discerning when making our picks. Tuesdays and Thursdays are fun and I love the national TV games and all, but I find that I have the best results when I have a larger pool of games to choose from!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 15-17
- Against the Spread: 6-6
- Game/Team Totals: 3-5
- Moneyline Parlay: 2-3
- Teasers: 3-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Sacramento Kings (-2.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (232.5 total)
This one doesn't make much sense to me and was my first click when filling out my card today. The Kings are getting disrespected here and punished for their relatively difficult schedule out of the gate. I'm pretty high on them this season based on what I have seen so far from them. Fox is playing a high level, Sabonis is as steady as ever, Murray looks as ready as any rookie not named "Banchero", and Kevin Huerter has been shooting the lights out as their new 2-guard.
The Kings started 0-4 but faced an improved Portland team, barely lost to the Clippers, and then had to face the Warriors and Grizzlies. They're coming off their first win, an impressive one against Miami and I think they're clearly the better team here.
The Hornets beat the Warriors on Saturday, which is no small feat, but that game felt like more of a fluke than anything. PJ Washington came out of nowhere with 31 points and the Warriors shot the ball poorly. Charlotte is still without Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball and I think they'll have their hands full here with a surging Kings team, especially on the interior where Sabonis will be a major mismatch for them.
The Pick: SAC -2.5 (-110 DK)
Indiana Pacers (+8.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (236 total)
Another one of these weird "we just saw this game" games on the schedule early in the season and it would be all too easy to just recommend the Pacers here since they upset Brooklyn 125-116 on Saturday night.
But at the same time, how can we ignore this result either? The Nets have now dropped four in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season and they've been absolutely horrible defensively, allowing an average of 122 points per game to opponents. Even if you think they win tonight, do you really think they cover this spread? They've been the second-worst team in total +/- ATS at -10.3 and are 1-5 ATS this season.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have been improved lately, winning two in a row, and have Myles Turner back in the lineup. Haliburton is an emerging star and Buddy Hield is shooting the ball well. They won't lay down for KD and Kyrie and could very well beat them again. This spread is way too big, back the underdogs!
The Pick: IND +8.5 (-110 DK)
Houston Rockets (+9.5) @ LA Clippers (224 total)
This is a very similar situation to the Nets-Pacers game, except the Rockets have not faced the Clippers so far this year. Houston's record looks bad as they sit at 1-6 through their first seven games, however, this is a team with a young, exciting core that is going to be better than what they've shown so far.
The Rockets fell to the Suns last night by 13 points, but they entered the fourth quarter down only two points before being unable to keep up with the Suns down the stretch. Being underdogs almost every night out, the Rockets have managed to cover in three of seven games.
This spread feels pretty wide considering that the Clippers tonight will be without Kawhi Leonard yet again and likely John Wall, too. Robert Covington is in the health and safety protocols and could miss here, too.
The Clippers have been even worse than the Nets ATS this year with a -12.2 +/- margin and an identical 1-5 record. They've dropped four in a row with two of those losses coming to Oklahoma City! This team is in disarray to start the season and Paul George can only play hero ball so many times. I'm backing Houston here to keep things close, they have the talent to do it and the Clippers just seem like they are a total mess right now.
The Pick: HOU +9.5 (-110 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ Utah Jazz (231.5 total)
We get a rematch here between two teams that battled it out on Saturday night. The Jazz prevailed in that one, winning 124-123 against a Grizzlies team that was without Ja Morant.
Morant's status for tonight is still unknown at this time, but he was just battling an illness, he's not dealing with an injury and I am guessing he plays. He will boost Memphis' offensive output in a big way and this is already a team that scored 123 points against Utah without him.
Memphis has been in a bunch of high-scoring games already this season and has the highest +/- against their totals this year in the league at +12.6. I am not relying exclusively on the result of Saturday's game by any means (the model has this one projected around 237), but the fact these teams scored 147 points in that one makes me feel pretty warm and fuzzy, too.
The Pick: OVER 231.5 (-110 DK)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Philadelphia + Sacramento + Milwaukee = (+187 DraftKings)
Underdog 5.5 point Teaser: Indiana +14, Utah +12.5, Houston +15 = (+162 FanDuel)
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