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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, June 19, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a 10-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, June 19, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Reese Olson over 4.5 strikeouts (-145, DraftKings sportsbook)
The big leagues can be tough on young pitchers and the Tigers' Reese Olson is no exception.
Olson tossed five innings of two-run ball with six strikeouts in his MLB debut on June 2 but also allowed six runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work with only two punchouts his last time out. However, he has a nice opportunity to get well over this strikeout total on Monday night against the Royals.
The Royals enter this one ranked 23rd with a 24% strikeout rate on the season and also 29th with a wRC+ of just 83, or 17% below the league average. Their strikeout rate is nearly identical against both lefties and righties but they are a worse offense against right-handers given their 79 wRC+ against them.
For his part, Olson sports a 19.6% K% in three big-league starts but he also mowed down hitters at a 26.9% clip across 10 Triple-A starts as well, in addition to his 33.1% clip in Double-A last season. Just 23, Olson might own a 6.08 ERA in the big leagues this season but he also sports a 3.50 FIP and 4.23 SIERA.
He stands an excellent chance of taking care of this Royals offense tonight while he should be able to rack up plenty of strikeouts in the process.
James Paxton over 6.5 strikeouts (-140, DraftKings sportsbook)
There is only one team in baseball that strikes out more against left-handed pitching than the Minnesota Twins. No disrespect to the Brewers but their 28.7% K% against lefties is the worst mark in baseball, followed by the Twins at a hefty 27.9% clip. You may have also heard that Paxton is enjoying a strong season that has included a wealth of punchouts.
The oft-injured veteran enters this one sporting a 3.09 ERA on the season. He also owns an identical 3.09 FIP and a 3.13 SIERA that both back up his work with authority. Meanwhile, Paxton has punched out 33.1% of the hitters he has faced this season while walking just 7.5% of them.
Admittedly, his work at home has been far superior to his work on the road. However, a 27.5% K% on the road should play against this Twins lineup. He should also face 7-8 right-handed hitters in this one while his 37.5% K% against righties helps this prop as well.
Look for Paxton to notch at least seven strikeouts for the fourth straight start tonight.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kerry Carpenter over 1.5 total bases (+115, DraftKings sportsbook)
Grabbing a left-handed power hitter against a right-handed pitcher prone to the home run ball is usually a nice idea at plus-money odds.
Indeed, Kerry Carpenter homered in Sunday's win over the Minnesota Twins, his fifth homer in 30 games this season while he sports an attractive .212 isolated power on the season. He also owns a .222 ISO for his career while his bat has been 24% above the league average in his 61-game career, as per his 124 wRC+ in that time.
At the same time, Royals righty Jordan Lyles enters this one sporting a 6.89 ERA along with a 5.82 FIP, 5.21 SIERA, and a 2.03 HR/9. Lyles has long struggled with the gopher ball, surrendering multiple home runs in exactly 50% of his 14 starts this season.
Add it up and Carpenter should be able to grab at least a pair of total bases in this one tonight.
Connor Joe over 1.5 total bases (+145, DraftKings sportsbook)
You have to love yourself some Connor Joe against left-handed pitching.
The Cubs' Drew Smyly has been solid this season with a 3.59 ERA in 14 starts but he also owns a less-than-impressive 4.52 SIERA while he too has scuffled with the long ball as per his elevated 1.27 HR/9. For good measure, he sports a 1.45 HR/9 for his career.
Enter Connor Joe who has raked lefties this season. The righty-swinging former Colorado Rockie is hitting .314 with a monstrous .300 ISO and 1.029 OPS against left-handed pitching this season while collecting 12 extra-base hits this season against lefties across 70 at-bats. In sum, his bat has been 77% above the league average against lefties, according to his 177 wRC+ in that department.
He'll move up the lineup against the left-hander tonight, so let's take advantage and have Joe grab at least two bags at a valuable price tonight.
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