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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 12-16-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now let’s dig into my recommendations for July 29, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Blue Jays
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TOR -130
LAA: Reid Detmers | TOR: Alek Manoah
We'll begin with a crucial American League showdown between the Angels and Blue Jays. Los Angeles enters play as winners of 9 of their past 12 games and only four games back from Toronto for the final AL Wild Card spot. They're not only playing for their first playoff berth since 2014 but also for the opportunity to re-sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason.
Toronto is attempting to hold off Los Angeles and several other teams threatening to bump them from a playoff bid, though a 5-5 record over their past 10 games doesn't put them on the right trajectory. Betting aside, this is a game worth watching.
Reid Detmers gets the nod for the Angels, sporting a middling 4.12 xERA and 3.84 xFIP through 18 starts this season. That includes a strong 29.4% strikeout rate, .381 xSLG, and a 5.6% barrel rate. Detmers isn't an ace, but he is a reliable arm, surrendering four earned runs or less in all but one appearance in 2023.
The Blue Jays lineup will be a challenge for the 24-year-old, though they fare better against right-handed pitching than they do against southpaws. Toronto carries a 17th-ranked .741 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, including a 108 wRC+ and .325 wOBA.
The real edge in this game comes with the other side of this matchup. Alek Manoah will take the bump for the Blue Jays, sporting a horrible 6.54 xERA and 6.10 xFIP through 16 starts this season. He's fallen off massively this season. Even after a minor-league stint to regain his footing, Manoah has not been able to figure it out, surrendering seven earned runs over 8 1/3 innings pitched in his two most recent outings.
He catches the Angels at an unfortunate time. They're one of the hottest offenses in baseball, sporting a 125 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of June, including a .353 wOBA and .827 OPS. I don't envision Manoah having a good time today.
This betting pick comes down to how little confidence I have in Manoah. He's just not himself these days and has shown little signs of a rebound. Conversely, the Angels are surging offensively and playing inspired baseball lately. Detmers is a competent arm and rarely gets blown up like Manoah regularly does. I see the Angels claiming a much-needed victory.
Pick: Angels Moneyline (+110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Mets
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: NYM (-170)
WSH: Patrick Corbin | NYM: Carlos Carrasco
Moving on to New York, where the third game of the Nationals-Mets series is set. The first two legs of the series were lower-scoring events, though I expect some fireworks on Saturday. The pitching matchup today is weak and subpar bullpens are unlikely to pick up the slack. These aren't the most imposing offenses, but there's enough reason to believe they can capitalize today.
Patrick Corbin takes the mound for Washington, meandering through another awful season. Corbin has been touched up this season to the tune of a 6.13 xERA. That includes a terrible .509 xSLG, .375 xwOBA, .312 xBA, 45.2% hard-hit rate, 91.1 MPH average exit velocity, and a 15.8% strikeout rate.
Looking beyond Corbin, the Nationals carry a 5.45 ERA, the second-worst mark in baseball. The Mets' lineup has been pretty inconsistent this season, but Pete Alonso has broken out of his slump with two multi-home run games over his last four appearances, and Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez, and Tommy Pham are all capable of carrying the offensive load.
Carlos Carrasco is having a surprisingly comparable season to Corbin, and not at all in a good way. He sports an identical 6.13 xERA through 14 starts. That includes an atrocious .495 xSLG, .375 xwOBA, 10.5% barrel rate, 91.3 MPH average exit velocity, 46.8% hard-hit rate, 10.1% walk rate, and 16.3% strikeout rate.
Carrasco has been entirely ineffective on the mound this year. The Nationals have been one of the weaker offenses all season, though have turned it up recently, scoring averaging five runs per game over 14 contests in the second half.
These two offenses won't regularly light up the scoreboard, but Corbin and Carrasco rarely walk away from an outing unscathed. I'm picking offense in this game because the likelihood that both Corbin and Carrasco are dealing today seems highly unlikely. Expect one or both of these offenses to pop off and take this run total into the double digits.
Pick: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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