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It's Saturday, July 16th, 2022 and I am back with another free MLB betting article. With only three-night games occurring tonight, most of these picks will be during the day. I will have a night game pick for those that find this article later in the day but the thing about Saturday MLB is that if you want to play fantasy or bet you have to get on those picks right away as games are typically spread throughout the day.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cincinnati Reds @ Saint Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: STL -165
CIN: Nick Lodolo| STL: Miles Mikolas
This is a game where Cincinnati is too large of an underdog. Nick Lodolo has a 3.24 SIERA and 21.1% K-BB% and has underlying metrics much stronger than his 4.44 ERA he currently has. Miles Mikolas has a 3.93 SIERA and 14.8% K-BB% despite having 2.62 ERA on the season. Mikolas has been pitching a bit over his head at the moment while Lodolo has had some bad variance. I'd expect both of these pitchers' ERA to start to converge.
Cincinnati's bullpen is a mess. They have a 5.38 ERA (highest in baseball) with a 4.01 SIERA (fourth-highest in baseball). Saint Louis has a 3.53 bullpen ERA and a bullpen SIERA of 3.78 (ninth-highest in baseball). While Saint Louis' bullpen is flawed, it is significantly better than Cincinnati's.
Offensively, Saint Louis is ninth in runs scored, 12th in OBP, and 16th in ISO. Cincinnati is 17th in runs scored, 20th in OBP, and 23rd in ISO. Even without looking at these metrics, if you have followed baseball you probably knew Saint Louis has the better offense.
Looking at the first five innings market, Cincinnati is a +175 underdog, which does not make sense given that one could argue that Nick Lodolo is better than Miles Mikolas. I do not trust Cincinnati's bullpen to take the full game moneyline, but a bet on the Cincinnati F5 Moneyline and a small sprinkle on the draw is the way to go.
Pick: Reds F5 Moneyline (+175), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 units; F5 Draw (+460), 0.25 units
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O/U: 11.5 | Moneyline: COL -128
PIT: Mitch Keller| COL: Jose Urena
We have two bad pitchers in a hitter's ballpark during the day... What do we do? Despite Jose Urena pitching a couple of gems, including one against the Padres I witnessed in person earlier this week, he is not a good pitcher. He has the highest SIERA on the slate at 6.04. His 2.66 ERA is a mirage that will fade away at some point. Keller is also not a great pitcher as he has a 4.21 SIERA and 4.88 ERA.
One thing that can be agreed on is that the Rockies' lineup is better than Pittsburgh's. What the Pirates put out last night was like a Triple-A lineup. While most of the Rockies lineup isn't like *amazing* having Charlie Blackmon, C.J. Cron, and Kris Bryant, at least makes it an upgrade over whatever Pittsburgh is putting out.
Despite that, I like the Pirates today. Urena has the worst SIERA on the slate and a -3.4% K-BB%. Even a Triple-A lineup should be able to do some damage. When the game turns over to the bullpens, the Rockies bullpen has a 4.92 ERA (third-highest) and a 4.41 SIERA. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 4.73 ERA and a 4.21 SIERA. They are basically even bullpens but technically the Pirates have a small advantage there.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+116), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SF -130
MIL: Eric Lauer| SF: Alex Cobb
For the last pick of the article, I'll keep this short and sweet. I like Milwaukee and the over tonight. Alex Cobb is an enigma. He has had a low SIERA and high ERA all year. Cobb has a low 3.23 SIERA but a high 4.57 ERA; the dude just keeps allowing runs. There is something that Cobb is doing that is not getting picked up, or he is by far the most unlucky pitcher this season. Either way, I am tired of choosing him to turn it around only to allow 3-4 runs that start over and over again. He did have a two-start stretch where things were looking better but the last two against Arizona were not great. Lauer has a 3.68 SIERA and 3.83 ERA which is much closer together.
I think Lauer allows fewer runs than Cobb because that is what these guys have done most of the year. Milwaukee, despite allowing six runs in the 9th inning last night, has a better bullpen than San Francisco as well in both ERA and SIERA. Milwaukee has the better bullpen and the more effective starting pitcher. Neither pitcher nor neither bullpen is lights out; there will be runs.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+105), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 8.0 runs scored (+100), DraftKings/Caesar's/PointsBet Sportsbook,0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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