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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 11-8-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for June 17, 2023!
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O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA -150
CHW: Lucas Giolito | SEA: Logan Gilbert
We begin with a matchup between two underwhelming teams. The Mariners enter play sitting in fourth place in the AL West, while the White Sox look to rebound from a disappointing 30-41 start. Game one of the series went to the Mariners, and I expect a similar outcome on Saturday.
Logan Gilbert takes the mound for the Mariners coming off a weak performance against the Angels, where he surrendered six earned runs over three innings. As a whole, 2023 has been a discouraging campaign for Gilbert, sporting a 4.38 ERA through 13 starts. However, his underlying numbers suggest significant positive regression should be headed his way. Gilbert carries a 3.47 xERA, which includes a 3.44 xFIP, .294 xwOBA, and a 4.3% walk rate. He's not immune to getting hit, but Gilbert is pitching better than his surface numbers suggest, and this is a great spot to get on the right track.
The White Sox score just 4.1 runs per game and struggle mightily against right-handed pitching. Chicago sports a .669 OPS against righties, the fourth-worst mark in baseball, including a .151 ISO and 82 wRC+. They bring some notable bats like Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez but recently lost Yoan Moncada to the injured list and don't seem likely to turn it around anytime soon. Gilbert should have his way with this stumbling offense.
For the White Sox, Lucas Giolito takes the bump. He sports a strong 3.54 ERA through 14 starts, but in contrast to Gilbert, there is significant negative regression in Giolito's outlook. As a jumping-off point, Giolito's 4.11 xERA and 4.35 xFIP illustrate the gap between his results and performance level. He surrenders a .424 xSLG and a career-worst 9.8% barrel rate on the season.
The Mariners are far from an imposing offense, scoring a middling 4.4 runs per game. That includes an equally underwhelming .692 OPS against right-handed pitching and .156 ISO, and 98 wRC+. Seattle isn't one of the league's most prolific lineups, but names like Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez are more than capable of fireworks. Overall, they come out on top when stacked up against Chicago's offense, and that should be enough today.
With a moderately superior offense, a notable starting pitching advantage, and a vastly superior bullpen, Seattle should win comfortably today. I'm taking the -1.5 run line with confidence.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 Run line (+140) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM -150
STL: Adam Wainwright | NYM: Kodai Senga
Moving on to an NL matchup between the Cardinals and Mets. Both teams have disappointed in 2023, though perhaps no team more so than the Cardinals at 27-43. Game one of this series resulted in a 6-1 victory for the Mets, but I anticipate even more offense today. Even in the absence of Pete Alonso, both teams have enough collective offensive firepower to take advantage of the suspect pitching.
Adam Wainwright's age-41 season has been brutal thus far. He sports a 5.79 ERA through seven starts, and the advanced numbers suggest he may be pitching even worse than that. Wainwright owns a 6.12 xERA and 5.51 xFIP. That includes an atrocious .522 xSLG, .378 xwOBA, .318 xBA, and 11.2% barrel rate. He's getting hit hard with regularity, and his chances of success today are seriously clouded.
The Mets' offense isn't terribly impressive. They score 4.4 runs per game, including a middling .709 OPS, .152 ISO, and 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. New York is certainly missing Pete Alonso, but their lineup has enough between Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez, and more. They scored six earned runs off Miles Mikolas last night, and Wainwright presents a much more vulnerable spot.
Kodai Senga takes the mound for the Mets on Saturday. His debut MLB season features a 3.34 ERA through his first 12 outings, but the results have been misleading. Senga sports a mediocre 4.11 xERA, headlined by a persistent walk problem. He's walking batters at a staggering 14.3% rate, having issued four or more free passes in seven of his 12 starts this season. Senga has done a good job at limiting damage from there, but a 42.5% hard-hit rate opens the door for some serious volatility.
The Cardinals have been a massive disappointment overall this season, though their offense has not been that bad. They score 4.5 runs per game and sport a solid .749 OPS against right-handed pitching, which includes a .174 ISO and 107 wRC+. There's a lot of unrealized potential in this lineup, but guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Nolan Gorman are all capable of popping off on any given day.
There's notable doubt surrounding both pitchers today. Either through one or both of their failures, I see this game surpassing the 8.5-run mark. These offenses offer a lot more unlocked potential than the early-season statistics suggest.
Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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