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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/15/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday RotoBallers, it's Division Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 12, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 6-4-1 (+0.6 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Mariners
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SEA -102
HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. | SEA: George Kirby
We were able to go 1-0-1 yesterday, with an unfortunate push on the Yankees F5 play as starter Nestor Cortes allowed two earned runs in the fourth and fifth innings to forfeit the lead. Nevertheless, we'll run it back this afternoon with a pair of first five money lines.
We'll start out west in Seattle, where the visiting Astros will send Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA) to the mound. It'll be McCullers's first start against the Mariners this season, but he's had success in the past. He brings in a 10-3 record with a 2.80 ERA in 18 career starts against the M's. My model projects him well today, with a 19.13% hard contact rate allowed and the Mariners projecting to just a .449 wOBA + ISO against McCullers's pitch types.
Conversely, the Mariners will send George Kirby (8-5, 3.39 ERA) to the mound. The Mariners are now in desperation mode, needing a win to keep their ALCS hopes alive. Kirby pitched well enough in his lone start against Houston this season, allowing two earned runs in four innings while striking out seven back on July 31. I can't say my model projects a similar result this afternoon, as Kirby projects to a 32.23% hard contact rate allowed and the Astros have a .517 wOBA + ISO projection against his pitch types.
My model gives the Astros an advantage here in both offensive and starting pitcher categories. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Astros F5 money line at just -110. As I mentioned earlier, the Mariners should be in full desperation mode, and I do think their bullpen could will them to a win here, but I think the Astros get to Kirby early and often and take care of business in the first five innings.
Pick: Astros F5 Money Line (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Guardians
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: CLE +102
NYY: Luis Severino | CLE: Triston McKenzie
We'll head to Cleveland for our second play of the afternoon. I mentioned earlier that Nestor Cortes allowed two runs in the fourth and fifth innings to push the F5, but we'll run it back today.
Luis Severino will take the ball for the Yankees. It'll be Severino's first start against the Guardians this season. As a matter of fact, it'll be his first start against the Guardians since 2018. My model projects him to pitch well today; with a projected 3.09 xFIP, 28.67% hard contact rate allowed, and the Guardians just a projected .431 wOBA + ISO against his pitch types.
Triston McKenzie will take the ball for the Guardians. He pitched extremely well against the Yanks back on July 3, tossing seven scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and one walk. However, he projects to just a 3.88 xFIP, 37.38% hard contact rate allowed, and the Yankees project a .514 wOBA + ISO against his pitch types.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us solid value here as well, as the Yankees F5 money line is at just -115. I won't mince words, the Yankees gave the game away yesterday, scoring two runs in the first and going out with a whimper afterward as the Guardians scored four unanswered. Aaron Judge has yet to make his presence felt in this series, and I expect that to change today.
Pick: Yankees F5 Money Line (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you in tomorrow!
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