RADIO
Spencer Aguiar digs into the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open, providing his DFS model to try and locate potential value as we enter day two.
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While this article can normally be found behind the paywall portion of the RotoBaller website, we are offering it to you for free this week to take advantage of all the great information and tools available for your in-tournament research. If you like what you see, you can show your support by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. That will give you 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022! We hope you enjoy this week's treat!
I am excited to announce that I will be providing a premium spreadsheet that can be accessed through the link below. Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament - all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. This piece aims to provide an area where you can not only research the daily proceedings for DFS Showdown strategy but also potentially find outright additions or daily head-to-head wagers to add to your card after round 1.
Advanced metrics are included that should pinpoint golfers who underachieved or overachieved on a particular day, and I highly recommend using the pre-tournament weight section in your research. There you will be able to take the data you found pertinent pre-event and mix it in with the information on hand for the week. For the sake of how the sheet is set up behind the paywall, you will have to readjust your rankings once again in tab number 1 if you would like to incorporate that particular feature back into your process.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Farmers Insurance Open
Round 1 Recap:
I can't say I love rotational tournaments like Torrey Pines. The lack of tracking at the North Course places us behind the eight ball since we can't maximize our statistical decoding prowess, but most importantly, some of our leverage opportunities immediately become obsolete because of the difference in strength between the two courses. None of that means we can't try to get unique in our process by randomly inserting players taking on the South tomorrow if the situation is creating an ownership edge that is too stark to ignore, but you don't have to look any further than the scoring discrepancy on day one that placed the North at a 3.679 shot disadvantage to its counterpart.
And part of the issue there is if we know of this dissimilarity, so does any real DFS player that isn't just randomly clicking buttons. To put some of what we have in front of us into perspective, I created a model that ignores the venue each golfer is playing tomorrow and instead took an 80% weight from my pre-tournament data and mixed it in with 20% of the scoring from Wednesday. I usually dislike adding scoring into any running model. I don't think it accomplishes what you want to see since we are trying to pinpoint what is sustainable from a statistical standpoint and not what a player produced on the surface level, but unless we decide to go with 100 percent of our pre-tournament research, which I do think is a plausible route, the next best route for us to take is to weigh each golfer on how they performed to the field on their test Wednesday and then take that number and combine it with our pre-tournament research. As always, please make a copy of the spreadsheet for yourself if you want to create your own model.
Top-15 Players OTT+APP During Day 1 (South Course Only)
Top-15 Players OTT+APP Differentials (Good Ball-Striking, Bad Putting) South Course Only
Top-15 Players OTT+APP Differentials (Bad Ball-Striking, Good Putting) South Course Only
Day 1 Scoring Per Course (Full Information Can Be Found Inside Spencer's Model
Round 2 H2H Bet
I am going to let the board normalize and get everyone back onto the same track. Marc Leishman ($8,600) and Joaquin Niemann ($7,600) are two names that I would heavily consider in the right matchup and are in play for showdown contests.
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