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Brandon's fantasy hockey Risers and Fallers for Week 4 of the 2026 NHL season. His top trade targets, player outlooks, and analysis for Trevor Zegras, David Pastrnak, Joel Eriksson Ek, and more.
Hey, RotoBallers! We are now officially in the second "full" week of the NHL season, and the dust has begun to settle. Fantasy managers are starting to identify potential breakout candidates and are growing concerned about many underperforming stars.
Below are top options to acquire via trade and the waiver wire, as well as players to watch who are underperforming after the first three weeks of the 2026 NHL season who could be potential buy-low candidates.
Be sure to follow RotoBaller on X for all of our league-winning content and me @df_solutions. Also, use discount code SOLUTIONS for 50% off any Premium Packages and get access to our Team Sync platform with customized lineup tools, projections, and more based on your league settings. Let's dive in! Note: All statistics referenced are updated as of Monday, October 19.
NHL Metrics Glossary
ixG = Individual Expected Goals
iSCF = Individual Scoring Chances For
iHDCF = Individual High-Danger Chances For
xGF/60 = Expected Goals For Per 60
SCF/60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60
HDCF/60 = High-Danger Chances For Per 60
Fantasy Hockey Risers
Players rostered in 40% or more of Yahoo leagues
Tage Thompson (C) - Buffalo Sabres, Rostered 100%
Tage Thompson is not an ‘elite’ center or forward overall, but he is certainly a ‘great’ one. Over the last week–four games–Thompson has produced two goals, two assists, 13 shots on goal, one power-play point, and three blocked shots.
Over the season, he ranks just outside the top 100 forwards in Expected Goals For Per 60 (2.98) and Scoring Chances For Per 60 (41.23) with at least 20 minutes on ice. However, he is in the top 20 under the same filters in Individual Expected Goals For Per 60 (0.34).
Thompson’s ability to produce more himself than assisting is no surprise, given the carousel of players coming and going from his line. Once the top line for the Buffalo Sabres sees consistent chemistry, Thompson’s production will take a major jump in all facets of the game.
However, among the top centers in fantasy, Thompson's trade price will not reach the levels of Auston Matthews. Now is the time to buy before the price becomes unreachable.
David Pastrnak (RW) - Boston Bruins, Rostered 100%
While Thompson could still be acquired in a reasonable trade, Pastrnak will likely be much harder to land. However, managers who selected him in the opening round should expect his production to surge over the next week.
David Pastrnak, or otherwise known as ‘Pasta’ is about to go nuclear, even more so than he already has. Throughout the last week–three games–he has amassed two goals, three assists, 11 shots on goal, two power-play points, and one blocked shot. Why expect him to produce even more?
Well, that is because he is now being centered by Fraser Minten (C, 34% (-1%)). Before Minten’s promotion, Pastrnak was being centered by a rotation of players, and for those who don’t know Minten, the deal that brought him to the Bruins has been labeled a ‘steal’ across the industry. As shown below, Minten sits in the 89th percentile or higher in many shooting metrics, which will only put Pastrnak in even more favorable situations.
It is a small sample size, but the line of JJ Peterka, Fraser Minten, and David Pastrnak is the 22nd-best line in the league this season in Expected Goals Difference at 76.9%. Over the season, Pastrnak ranks top 100 in both Expected Goals For Per 60 (3.23) and Scoring Chances For Per 60 (32.8).
Both of those numbers are expected to see a bump now that Minten is on the top line with Pastrnak. Pasta’s value will remain high, but he has another level to his ceiling.
Fantasy Hockey Risers - Waiver Wire Targets
Players rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo leagues
Joel Eriksson Ek (C) - Minnesota Wild, Rostered 66% (+5%)
There is no reason Joel Eriksson Ek is still below 90 percent ownership in all formats. The veteran center has been on the top line for the Minnesota Wild since October 8, and he is currently centering Kirill Kaprizov and Matthew Boldy.
In Eriksson Ek’s first three games of the season, without centering the two above, he produced one point (an assist), five shots on goal, and one blocked shot. Since his promotion back to the top line, he has produced one goal, four assists, 20 shots on goal, two power-play points, and three blocked shots.
Among 600 forwards with 20 or more minutes of ice time this season, JEE ranks in the top 200 in both Expected Goals For Per 60 and Scoring Chances For Per 60. Those numbers will keep climbing as long as he stays on the top line with Kaprizov and Boldy.
If managers need a center or forward in general, they need to focus on JEE, who centers two ‘elite’ scoring wingers. He can also chip in 100+ hits and 30+ blocks, giving him a higher floor on most nights.
Mason McTavish (C) - St. Louis Blues, Rostered 47% (+27%)
Speaking of centers, Mason McTavish may be proving doubters wrong for good. The veteran center struggled in his final years in Anaheim. Whether it was inconsistent production and line chemistry, or the constant promotions and demotions, McTavish’s game never flowed. However, since arriving in St. Louis, he looks like a completely different player. The exact player that Anaheim thought they had drafted.
McTavish has gone only one game without a point through the young season, and it was a 6-1 loss at Ball Arena. Over the last week–four games–he has managed three goals, three assists, 16 shots on goal, one power-play point, and two blocked shots. He is averaging four shots a game right now.
Is it sustainable volume? Managers will find out soon enough. At this point, his shot volume is a bonus to his already hot form. If managers lose out on Eriksson Ek, McTavish is a solid consolation prize. Below are McTavish's shot attempts that a netminder stopped. The former Duck is generating elite chances in high-danger positions. If available, he is a priority add in all standard leagues.
Fantasy Hockey Fallers
Gavin McKenna (LW) - Toronto Maple Leafs, Rostered 83% (-0.4%)
Curious how many are shouting they called it versus how many are shocked by McKenna’s form as he starts his first NHL season. The No. 1 pick in this past summer’s NHL Draft is struggling to put it lightly.
However, struggling can be used loosely; after all, expectations are much higher for him than other rookies. Through nine games, the youngster has produced two goals, three assists, 17 shots on goal, one power-play point, and one blocked shot in his nine games.
Over the last week (three games), he has produced only one point (a goal) and four shots on goal.
Teammate and centerman John Tavares is out with a lower-body injury, and his timetable is unknown. While he is out, McKenna has been promoted to the top power-play unit. Perhaps this could be the move that sparks his offense?
This may have sparked a resurgence as McKenna scored his first career power-play goal on Monday night. He remains a risky option in most leagues given his inconsistent start, but the move to the top unit could get him on track.
Gabriel Vilardi (C, RW) - Winnipeg Jets, Rostered 42% (-13%)
The hockey world thought Gabriel Vilardi was finally going to have a strong season and, more importantly, do it without Mark Scheifele feeding him constantly. Well, those hopes quickly fell through. After posting back-to-back assists to start the season, Vilardi has had only one point (an assist) since. In the last week–three games–he has managed one assist, four shots on goal, one power-play point, and two blocked shots. One more thing worth highlighting.
All three of Vilardi’s points have come on the power-play. He has YET to produce an even-strength point.
Even more interesting, Vilardi is producing 1.18 Individual Expected Goals Per 60. He is generating the chances; he is just not converting them. More so becoming ‘unlucky’ than not producing at all. He is also in the top 200 of the 600 players who have played 20 or more minutes this season in both Expected Goals For Per 60 (2.76) and Scoring Chances For Per 60 (29.1).
The scoring chances are a bit concerning. However, that can boil down to several variables.
For managers struggling early, Vilardi could be a buy-low candidate, with the hope of moving back to the top line for the Winnipeg Jets or getting moved out of Winnipeg. For managers who have Vilardi, bench him unless you have to play him.
Trevor Zegras (C, LW, RW) - Philadelphia Flyers, Rostered 60% (-12%)
Once again, the article cannot carry on without highlighting at least one Philadelphia Flyer. This week will be hybrid forward Trevor Zegras. The once-deemed savior of the Anaheim Ducks has fallen through with the Philadelphia Flyers.
Is that really a surprise at this point, considering the mess they are going through? Zegras has amassed two goals, 11 shots on goal, and three blocked shots over the last week. Like many other Flyers players, Zegras is constantly rotating through not only lines, but positions too.
This drastically affects a player’s ability to generate production and stay consistent, and everyone is seeing it firsthand.
To the surprise of many, Zegras is just outside the top 100 players with 20 or more minutes of ice time in both Expected Goals For Per 60 and Scoring Chances For Per 60. He generates opportunities every game but hasn't been able to convert.
The problem is that his teammates are not converting those chances and opportunities. This is more of a team issue than a Zegras issue. However, until he either gets traded out of Philadelphia or finally gets consistent linemates, this will remain the issue.
Like McKenna, Zegras began to turn the corner on Monday, posting his first multi-point effort of the campaign, but he remains an inconsistent option to start most nights.
Zeev Buium (D) - Vancouver Canucks, Rostered 19% (-7%)
Anyone remember when Zeev Buium was drafted in the top 15 in 2024? The Minnesota Wild drafted Buium hoping to get another Brock Faber. Instead, he quickly fell down the pecking order and was eventually moved to Vancouver in the big Quinn Hughes trade. Buium has struggled since his arrival, and this season is no different.
The young defenseman has produced a single point (one assist). Within the last week–three games–he has produced two shots on goal and three blocked shots.
Over the season, among defenders who have played at least 20 minutes, Buium is the 53rd-worst in Expected Goals Against Per 60. He is also the 56th-worst defender in Scoring Chances Against Per 60. He isn’t just struggling offensively. He is also struggling defensively. Until he finds consistent, positive form, the defender will remain untouchable on the waiver wire outside of deep 14+ team leagues.
More Fantasy Hockey and Analysis
