Fantasy Football Positive Target Regression Candidates: Wide Receivers

Kacey Kasem examines four fantasy football WRs who are prime candidates for positive target regression in 2024. These are four options managers should look to draft.

The 2024 NFL season is quickly approaching, and as fantasy football managers, it is important to identify which players are likely to receive increased targets. Many factors contribute to these target upticks, including quarterback changes, coaching staff changes, and overall team dynamics.

In this article, we will discuss four wide receivers who are likely to see more balls in their direction for the upcoming season than they did in 2023. Those players are Demario Douglas of the New England Patriots, Jahan Dotson of the Washington Commanders, Drake London of the Atlanta Falcons, and George Pickens of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This article will investigate how these wideouts fared last season and what changes on their teams could lead to more opportunities. These players are the ones to focus on if you're looking for players to step up in 2024.

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Demario Douglas, New England Patriots

Last season, Demario Douglas led the New England Patriots with 561 receiving yards. He was consistently involved in the passing game, having an 18 percent target share. His role became even more significant from Week 7 forward, growing to 21 percent of the target share. The Liberty product failed to grab a touchdown in 2023.

The New England Patriots made notable additions to their wide receiver room in the 2024 NFL Draft, bringing in Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. These rookies were a move to address the team's need for depth at the position.

Demario Douglas put this poor fella Donovan Wilson’s ankles in a blender 🥶pic.twitter.com/Qdp4xdkY6W

— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) October 1, 2023

K.J. Osborn, joining from Minnesota, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had a subpar 2023 season with just 29 receptions for 260 yards and a lone touchdown in 11 games, are not expected to pose a significant threat to Douglas' role on the team. Kendrick Bourne's recovery from an ACL injury also presents more chances for Douglas to shine in the offense.

Douglas received 79 targets in 2023 but should accumulate more this season with improved quarterback play and a roster situation that puts him on top. Whether rookie quarterback Drake Maye or veteran presence Jacoby Brissett is under center, Douglas will have better quarterback play than he's seen with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.

Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders

After an encouraging rookie campaign with the Washington Commanders, Jahan Dotson's 2023 season was a bummer. Despite a pass-heavy offense, inefficiency was an issue in the passing game. The 24-year-old saw 49 catches for 518 yards and four scores on 83 targets his sophomore season in the league. In his rookie season, Dotson posted 35 catches for 523 yards and seven touchdowns on 61 targets despite playing only 12 games.

The Commanders are a high-volume passing organization that will see improved quarterback play in 2024. Washington selected quarterback Jayden Daniels as the second overall pick in this year's draft, which is a considerable upgrade. Last season, Dotson caught passes from Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett, but the new QB system should help the wide receiver thrive.

Jahan Dotson is too talented to not have found his way back to success. pic.twitter.com/7p4k38Z8s5

— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) November 5, 2023

The Penn State alum is the No. 2 wide receiver behind Terry McLaurin. Dotson is expected to benefit from a new offensive system under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The Commanders also hired Dan Quinn as their new head coach, signaling a fresh start for this talented offense.

With Curtis Samuel exiting to the Bills in free agency, Dotson's opportunities should increase, especially since he demonstrated his potential in games Samuel missed last year. Adding Luke McCaffrey as WR3 (selected in the 2024 NFL Draft) only strengthens the receiving group. With improved quarterback play and a new coaching staff, Dotson should see an increased share of targets in 2024.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Despite inadequate quarterback play and coaching decisions, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London saw 110 targets in 2023. The arrival of Kirk Cousins as the Falcons' new quarterback is a boost for London's value. With Arthur Smith's release as head coach, London is in an ideal position to break out in 2024.

The soon-to-be 23-year-old saw 117 targets as a rookie. In his sophomore season, he saw seven fewer targets and played in one fewer game than in 2022. He put up monster numbers, but he'll see an increase in passing volume this season, leading to more targets.

DRAKE LONDON 🤯
pic.twitter.com/4oYGHVyOKS

— High Point Sports (@HPointSports) October 15, 2023

His stats over two years, totaling 141 catches for 1,771 yards in 33 games, emphasize his potential for a breakout season. Last year, the former eighth overall draft pick led Atlanta with 69 catches for 905 yards. The team attempted the eighth-fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Additionally, the Falcons tend to run the ball when losing by multiple scores. The team threw the ball only 54 percent of the time when losing by multiple scores last season.

Atlanta has struggled with quarterback consistency and effective coaching. Still, the team looks to refresh with Raheem Morris as head coach and Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator. These coaches come from the Los Angeles Rams, a team that averaged the seventh-most passing yards per game last season (245.6). With the upgrades around London, there will be a positive target regression.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens of the Pittsburgh Steelers is one player to benefit immensely from a quarterback change. Kenny Pickett is no longer quarterbacking the Steelers. Pickett only averaged 6.3 yards per attempt last year. The Steelers signed Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who have a better track record than Pickett. As a deep-threat receiver, Pickens will have a chance to flourish with quarterbacks who can air it out.

The departure of Diontae Johnson solidifies Pickens' status as the primary target in the Steelers offense. Last season, Pickens recorded 63 receptions for 1,140 yards and five scores on 106 targets. This was an improvement from his rookie season, where he tallied 52 receptions on 84 targets.

George Pickens: Too Intense pic.twitter.com/RusOzjcZCw

— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) December 23, 2023

With only tight end Pat Freiermuth and rookie wideout Roman Wilson as his main target competition, the 23-year-old is set to see a considerable increase in his target share. In 2023, Pickens had a 21.9 percent target share, which is expected to rise with Johnson now in Carolina.

When Johnson missed four games due to injury last season, Pickens prospered, gaining a massive 28.6% target share. Pickens led Pittsburgh in receptions, targets, and yards in 2023. He tied with Johnson for the most touchdowns on the team at five. With Wilson likely under center to start the season, the Georgia product is set to be the team's top wide receiver for fantasy football purposes. Look for Pickens to increase his target share and touchdown total in 2024.

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