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Ben Rosener identifies early breakout candidates for the 2022 fantasy baseball season in the NL Central division. These hitters and pitchers are sleepers to watch in fantasy drafts.
Identifying potential fantasy breakout players in drafts each Spring can be crucial in building a championship-winning roster for fantasy managers. Often times the breakout players, if they do in fact break out, will significantly outperform their draft position and help you find success. It may be a late-round pick performing like a quality contributor who should’ve gone in the middle of drafts. It could be a mid-round selection who performs like a top-20 player all season.
Whatever the type of breakout player, they’re generally the types of players we want on our fantasy rosters which is why I’m identifying one player from each team to keep in mind as potential breakouts for next season.
After breaking down the National League East’s potential fantasy breakout players in my last column, which you can read here, I’ve moved on to the National League Central. You can also read my fantasy breakout picks for each American League Division, the Central, East, and West if you feel so inclined.
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Chicago Cubs: Codi Heuer
For as much as the Chicago Cubs struggled in 2021, finishing with just 71 wins after dealing franchise cornerstones Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant at the trade deadline, they actually produced a number of breakout fantasy players last season.
Patrick Wisdom swatted 28 home runs in 375 plate appearances. Frank Schwindel hit 13 home runs while batting .342 in a 239 plate appearance sample size. Rafael Ortega reached double digits in both long balls (11) and stolen bases (12) while hitting .291 with a .360 on-base percentage in 330 plate appearances.
So, at least from a fantasy perspective, there were some positives.
And while it’s unlikely that the Cubs unearth that many useful fantasy hitters next season, there could be some potential breakout candidates on the pitching side.
While Adbert Alzolay and Brailyn Marquez are two names to watch, it’s Codi Heuer who’s the selection here.
Someone has to close games for the Cubs with Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, and Ryan Tepera no longer on the team. And right now Heuer, who came over in the Kimbrel trade with second baseman Nick Madrigal, might be the best bet in a bullpen devoid of consistency following the departures of Kimbrel, Chafin, and Tepera. Heuer owns a 3.56 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 91 career Major League innings.
Saves, like stolen bases, are obviously always at a premium in fantasy baseball, and while the Cubs likely won’t reach the zenith they did with Baez, Rizzo, and Bryant on the roster, their recent signing of Marcus Stroman (not to mention holdovers like Wisdom, Madrigal, Willson Contreras, and Ian Happ) suggests Chicago won’t reach the lows that past rebuilding clubs like the Tigers and Orioles did following their teardowns.
If Heuer can lock down the closer’s role, that could mean somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 saves for the right-hander.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Chavis
The Pittsburgh Pirates were baseball’s worst run-scoring unit last year, finishing with a league-low 609 runs scored, 14 less than the next lowest club. The rebuilding club isn’t likely to be much more productive this season, especially without Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, and Colin Moran in the picture.
Still, the fact that Pittsburgh is in a rebuilding phase with little in the way of established Major League hitters should create plenty of opportunities.
That’s where Michael Chavis comes in.
Acquired from the Boston Red Sox at the trade deadline for relief pitcher Austin Davis, Chavis was surplus to requirements in Boston where the Sox had a crowded infield portion of the depth chart.
Now in Pittsburgh on a team without Moran in the picture, Chavis could fill a role very similar to his former Pirates teammate.
Capable of playing first base, second base, and third base, Chavis is a decent bet to see fairly regular playing time next season provided Pittsburgh doesn’t sign any other infielders. That should result in an uptick in home runs.
Chavis connected on 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances as a rookie in 2019, also registering a 10.5%-barrel rate.
He’s going to strike out a lot – the infielder’s strikeout rate in 664 lifetime Major League plate appearances is a rather staggering 33% – but he could also provide 15-25 home runs with consistent playing time.
The 26-year-old is probably more of a candidate to be rostered in deeper leagues, but if you’re in said deeper leagues and are looking for a player capable of helping you at multiple positions while bringing some home runs to the table, Chavis is the hitter for you.
Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez
So far this offseason the Brewers have parted with two of Tellez’s primary sources of competition for starts at first base in Eduardo Escobar and Dan Vogelbach. And while Jace Peterson and Keston Hiura still remain, Tellez should start with regularity for Milwaukee, especially if the designated hitter is a part of proceedings in the National League next season.
The former Blue Jays first baseman showed well in his debut with Milwaukee after coming over in a mid-season trade, hitting .272 with a .333 on-base percentage and seven home runs in 174 plate appearances.
Tellez has always been around league average with his walk rate but shaved his strikeout rate down to 18.4% in a Brewers uniform.
If he can do that while still registering the barrel rate he had for the whole of last season (11.6%), Tellez is going to be a productive, power-hitting first baseman in fantasy baseball.
That he’ll likely hit fifth or sixth after Kolten Wong, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez and Hunter Renfroe should provide Tellez with plenty of RBI opportunities.
A season in which he produces 25 home runs, a .260 average, and 70 to 80 RBI isn’t out of the question for Tellez in 2022.
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino
If you’re looking for more power hitters to populate your roster, power hitters who you might be able to snag with a late-round draft choice and reap the benefits of it later, you might consider drafting Aristides Aquino.
Aquino hasn’t always played regularly in the Majors and has struggled to make contact as of late, with a .186 average and a 35.8% strikeout rate in 260 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.
Still, he’s mashed 31 home runs in 486 career Major League plate appearances and has offset hit strikeouts to a degree with some quality walk rate numbers – 10.7% in 2020 and 13.2% in 2021. Because of that, he’s probably more valuable in fantasy leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring.
Still, this is a slugger who could be stepping into a full-time role with Cincinnati on the lookout for a Nicholas Castellanos replacement in the outfield grass. Like Tellez, Aquino too would benefit from the extra plate appearances that would come with the introduction of the designated hitter on the Senior Circuit.
A 40-home run season isn’t out of the question for Aquino in 2022, and that’s not something you can say of many hitters. Let alone those likely to be taken late in fantasy drafts next spring.
St. Louis Cardinals: Edmundo Sosa
If the story of the 2021 season for Edmundo Sosa was about eating into Paul DeJong’s playing time at shortstop and establishing himself at the Major League level, then the story of the 2022 season for the 25-year-old might be about taking over the position from DeJong entirely.
Both players finished with the same fWAR (1.6) so it’s not as if DeJong isn’t without real-life value to the Cardinals anymore, but Sosa was much more productive in getting on base with a .271 average and a .346 on-base percentage to DeJong’s .187 average and .284 on-base percentage.
Overall, Sosa hit .271 with a .346 on-base percentage, six home runs, and four stolen bases in 326 plate appearances for the Cardinals.
Granted, DeJong’s production was probably weighed down to a degree by a .216 BABIP, but his wOBA (.293) and xwOBA (.312) both still finished below Sosa’s (.322 and .323 respectively).
Sosa might not have the power potential of his fellow shortstop, but he has a chance to reach double digits in both home runs and stolen bases given a full season’s worth of plate appearances. If he can hit anywhere close to .271 again, he’ll have plenty of fantasy upside next season.
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