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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 17of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
With about 60% of the season under our belts, teams and players are starting to take form. Expected stats are beginning to stabilize, and we can better understand a player's growth.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Let's get the challenging part out of the way; Aaron Nola has been dreadful lately. There, I said it. As a Nola truther, it pains me to say that. Over the last month, he has had a 6.33 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, if you're looking for a potential stud SP, Nola has to be on your radar.
The biggest problem with Nola right now is that far too many fly balls are leaving the yard. Typically, Nola had a higher WHIP than most labeled "aces." We were OK with this because he goes deep into games and strikes out plenty of batters. The strikeouts are still there, and his K% has not dipped since the crackdown. In fact, Nola has tossed double-digit strikeout games twice in the last month. The problem is Nola looks like he is giving in to hitters and leaving too many pitches over the plate. This assumption comes from a few walks (seven in his last six games) and more HRs (seven in his previous six games).
As far as evaluation goes, Nala is still a top-tier ace in my eyes. He needs to fix the HR problem and burn a few more pitches in the dirt. Once he does that, you'll be left with a starting pitcher that most would take in the first few rounds of a draft. I would have no problem separating a decent piece of my fantasy squad for the potential of Nola.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays
Do you trust the Tampa Bay organization for developing starting pitching? I sure as heck do! Granted, McClanahan has electric stuff. His entire arsenal combined has a 33.3% CSW, primarily made up of a slider thrown 39% of the time. The profile on the slider is elite, as it carries 23.6% SwStr% and 52.6% ground ball rate. But wait, there's more! McClanahan's curveball has a 43.2% CSW rate that also induces ground balls at a 50% clip.
Okay, now that I've gushed over what McClanahan has, let's talk about why you need him. First, the strikeout potential is legit. Shane's 28.6% K-rate over 65 IP is one of the better marks in the MLB. Next, the Rays are finally starting to let McClanahan go deeper into games. Outside of a blip against the Blue Jays, the Rays have let Shane go five or more innings pitched when he takes the mound. My suggestion is to make the trade as soon as possible before he starts throwing six or more innings and really putting together some gems.
Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins
First, the catcher position is one of the most challenging places to stay competitive. If you didn't spend a ton of draft capital, you are likely playing the waiver wire. Well, I am here to tell you now is the time to make a move for a catcher that could be a difference-maker. Furthermore, what makes Garver a potential difference-maker is the power. His 16% barrel rate and .500 xwOBAcon are near the tops of all catchers in the MLB. Just feast your eyes on his spray chart!
Additionally, even though he has only played in 43 games, his max exit velocity is two mph over his career high. That's a really great sign from a player that has been destroyed by injuries recently. This is definitely a move for a fantasy manager making that final push for a title.
The tricky part of trading for any catcher is figuring out the value. With Garver, I would try to pry him away for as little as possible. That's what we aspire to do in all trades anyway, but I would suggest throwing whatever hot players you would drop for Garver. His roster% has jumped 10% over the last week, so he is definitely on people's radar. However, someone who picked up Garver from the wire has less attachment and might chase your shiny object instead of theirs.
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