Later-Round Fantasy Baseball Steals Specialists - SB/PA Analysis

Jarod's fantasy baseball steals sleepers (SB), using SB/PA to find later-round bargains for stolen bases. He looks at picks after 300 to find elite speed upside.

In this article, I wanted to take a look at some players who will contribute double-digit steals that are available after pick No. 300. Some are projected to be starters for their clubs when the season begins, others are bench bats or filling in for starters that are expected to return later in the season.

To uncover some of these stolen base contributors and potential hidden gems, we look at players who had one of the higher stolen base-per-plate appearance ratios in 2024. If you are looking for values for steals that are going earlier in drafts, we've got another article for that.

Because it is per plate appearance, you are taking into consideration whether the base runner got on via a hit, walk, or error, so it is a good representation of how likely they are to steal a base once they get on. Keep in mind that stolen bases put runners into scoring position, so these players could end up scoring more runs than expected as well.

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Highest SB/PA Ratio from Last Year

I tried to keep the below table concise, so this is not a comprehensive list of the top 20 players (i.e., Christian Yelich came in at .067), but I left some notable base-stealers in for reference. The players we'll be talking about below are highlighted in blue.

Note that in this article last season, I outlined the case for Dairon Blanco and Jose Caballero, both of whom are in the above table as well and whose roles haven't really changed heading into this year, so they too could be viable sources of steals, but I won't rehash their story.

Late-Round Targets For Stolen Bases

Jacob Young, Washington Nationals, OF

ADP: 308

If you are at the end of your draft and need to make up some ground in the stolen base category, look no further than Jacob Young. Even when he's not hitting, he can still be a threat on the basepaths, as evidenced by the seven steals he recorded last July despite hitting a paltry .193 during the month.

In the first month of the season, when he batted .313, the speedster racked up 12 stolen bases, so if he can continue to put the bat on the ball, then the steals will pile up.

Putting the bat on the ball isn't really an issue for him, as he's made good contact during his two seasons in the big leagues, recording an 82.7 percent contact rate and a better-than-league-average strikeout rate of 19.6 percent.

The problem for fantasy is that he does not make hard contact, with a barrel rate near the bottom in all of baseball and an average exit velocity in the sixth percentile, which led to three home runs all of 2024 in 468 at-bats.

So, if you are rostering him, it is for the main purpose of boosting your stolen base totals while accruing some decent run-scoring production as well, but that's it.

ATC projections foresee 30 steals in 2025 but in just 127 games. If he can log closer to the 150 games he played last season and sprinkle in a few more walks (8.3 percent BB% in 2023 vs. 5.8 percent in 2024), then a 40-steal season is well within reach.

Ryan Bliss, Seattle Mariners, 2B

ADP: 492

As the spring season draws to a close, it is looking more and more like Ryan Bliss will be the Mariners' primary option at second base once the regular season gets underway.

The former second-round draft pick debuted for the team last season, slashing .222/.290/.397 in 71 plate appearances. Despite the low AVG and OBP, the diminutive infielder stole five bags in his limited action.

However, before getting called up to the majors, the speedy product out of Auburn swiped 50 bases in 433 PA (.115 SB/PA), totaling 55 for the year, which was the same amount of stolen bases he amassed in 2023 between Double and Triple-A.

The right-handed hitter owns a 10.2 percent walk rate and .350 OBP in the minors, a great attribute for a base stealer. While it shouldn't be counted on for fantasy, the 25-year-old does have some pop in his bat, belting 23 home runs in 2022 and 12 more in 93 games last season at Triple-A.

He's shown well so far in Cactus League play, hitting .323 (10-for-31) and stealing two bases. ATC projections give him 19 steals this season, but in only 89 games and 301 PA.

If he can manage to lock down second base for the entire year, meaning more games and more PA, then a 30-steal season is within reach. One way to stay in the lineup is to play stellar defense even when the bat isn't producing.

Bliss is a solid defender, even collecting the 2023 Arizona Fall League Defensive Player of the Year award that season, so he's got the tools to give the Mariners reason to keep him in the lineup.

It's a situation to monitor because it will all become moot if he does not earn the job out of spring.

However, if that also means utility man Dylan Moore won the job, then Moore could be a valuable source of late-round steals, and his eligibility a 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and OF on Yahoo adds some extra appeal.

David Hamilton, Boston Red Sox, 2B

ADP: 394

Kristian Campbell has the inside track... no wait, David Hamilton does... no wait, Campbell does! Hold on, Marcelo Mayer got a start at the keystone?

Sure seems the second base competition will be in flux for what's left of the spring season. However, if Hamilton wins the job, stolen bases will be in store.

The former eighth-round draft pick stole at least 52 bases in the minors from 2021-23, peaking at 70 thefts in 2022 alone. Last season, the left-handed hitter stole 33 bases while playing in only 98 games and tallying 317 PA (.104 SB/PA). His SB/PA was third-best in the majors in 2024.

Looking at the Grapefruit League competition, Hamilton is 11-for-46 (.239) with a pair of home runs, an 8:10 BB:K, and has swiped five bags already. Campbell, on the other hand, is 6-for-38 (.158) with zero home runs, a 7:15 BB:K, and zero stolen bases.

Sure, we can't ignore Campbell's meteoric rise in 2024, but with only 19 games under his belt at Triple-A and not separating himself from the competition this spring -- according to the numbers anyway -- it would make sense to give the youngster some more time to hone his craft in the minors.

Even if Campbell forces his way onto the roster, either to begin the season or later, Hamilton would remain, and we saw what he could do in the SB category in limited action last season.

Mayer, for his part, is having a better spring than Campbell (11-for-31, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 6 R), but he has zero at-bats at Triple-A to his name and does not realistically have enough experience at second base now to say he could be the Opening Day starter.

So, Hamilton is a solid late-round pick for steal-needy managers with double-digit stolen bases as the likely base-case scenario, and if Campbell doesn't force his way onto the roster at any point this season, then you land a 30-plus SB player with your last pick in the draft. Voila!

(Update: Kristian Campbell has made the Opening Day roster and will likely be Boston's starting second baseman)

Digging Deeper For Stolen Bases

Nasim Nunez, Washington Nationals, SS

ADP: 454

Nasim Nunez was acquired by the Nationals in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but before that, he was a second-round pick by the Marlins in 2019. Speed has been his trademark throughout his career, tallying totals of 28, 33, 70, and 52 in his last four seasons in the minors.

In 2023, the switch-hitter earned the Futures Game MVP honors, going 1-for-1 with a three-run double and, of course, swiping third base promptly thereafter.

In 2024, the speedster got his shot in the majors, playing in 51 games for the Nationals, and made the most of his limited playing time. He was 15-for-61 (.246) with the bat but struck out at a less-than-average rate of 19.2 percent while drawing walks at a better-than-average rate of 15.4 percent.

That led to a .370 OBP, and when he gets on base, he will inevitably steal bases. With a 95th-percentile sprint speed, Nunez was able to steal eight bases in 78 plate appearances, good for the fourth-best SB/PA in the majors, which came in at .103.

The 24-year-old is on the verge of securing the Nats' final bench spot after slashing .419/.486/.484 this spring and swiping a whopping seven bags already in only 35 plate appearances.

Assuming he's done enough to make the team, he could be a Dairon Blanco type who gets limited playing time but still manages to steal 20 or more bases. That total would surely end up much higher if, for some reason, he were pressed into a full-time role.

(Update: Nunez was optioned to Triple-A on March 22; be on the lookout if he's able to get an early-season recall)

Replacements For Injured Starters

Jon Berti, Chicago Cubs, 3B

ADP: 482

At 35 years old and with a combined 21 steals over the last two seasons, Jon Berti does not scream "stolen base threat," however, he stole 41 bags as recently as 2022, and his circumstances have put him in a position to be a viable SB contributor for fantasy, at least in the short term.

With incumbent second baseman Nico Hoerner (forearm) dealing with an injury, Berti was the Cubs' starter at the position for the first two games of the Tokyo Series, and wouldn't you know it, he's currently the regular season major league leader in steals with two (one in each game).

The right-handed hitter also went 3-for-6 in the series and got on base once via a hit-by-pitch. With a career walk rate of 9.6 percent, he should get on base at least semi-regularly when he's in the lineup, and clearly, he can still run.

Hoerner could still be ready for the stateside Opening Day, but if he isn't, then Berti will have more opportunity to rack up steals. Also, if it turns out that prospect Matt Shaw isn't ready for the big leagues yet, Berti could slide over and play third base.

He's currently only eligible at 3B on Yahoo but could soon gain 2B eligibility if Hoerner's return takes longer than anticipated.

Taylor Walls, Tampa Bay Rays, SS

ADP: 481

With offseason acquisition Ha-Seong Kim (shoulder) dealing with an injury that is expected to keep him out until late May, Taylor Walls will be the Rays' starter at shortstop. If you draft Walls, consider drafting Kim as well, because both can steal bases.

ATC projections foresee 11 steals for Walls and 18 for Kim, so if you have both, then you could have a combined 29 steals if all goes according to plan. Just keep Kim in an IL spot and drop Walls when he is ready to return.

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