8 Breakout Hitters For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Zach Thompson's Picks

March 24, 2026

Zach's 2026 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

In the middle of fantasy baseball draft season, every manager is on the hunt for the same thing: breakouts. Every year is full of players who step up and produce better numbers than they have in the past and improve their fantasy baseball standing significantly, from where they are drafted to where they actually produce for the season. Pinpointing a hitter who can be a true breakout is key to getting value throughout your draft and puts you on the fast track to fantasy success when the MLB regular season gets started on March 25.

In this column, I'll run down eight of my favorite candidates to become key breakout hitters for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. These hitters offer great value at their current cost, with all ADP references taken from NFBC drafts (from March 1 through March 20).

Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X and bring any further questions to me @ZT_sports. What eight hitters do I think should be on your short list of top targets? Let's check it out!

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Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox

ADP - 228

The White Sox got a great look at the future of their lineup down the stretch last season, and they became one of my go-to options for DFS and streaming plays as their lineup was sneakily productive. Montgomery's arrival after the All-Star break was a huge part of their success, and the power-hitting lefty should slot into the heart of the batting order on a regular basis this year, which will be his first full season in the majors.

He started his breakout last year with 21 homers in 71 games for the White Sox, hitting .239 with a .290 ISO and .355 wOBA. He had a 14.5% barrel rate and 44.5% hard-hit rate, quickly establishing himself as one of the best young home run hitters at shortstop.

He hasn't stopped mashing this spring, either, with three homers in his first 14 games.

Colson Montgomery hits his 3rd home run of the spring. A solo shot off Alek Manoah. White Sox up 4-0 over the Angels. pic.twitter.com/YGqEzw8zc4

— Chuck Garfien (@ChuckGarfien) March 11, 2026

Montgomery's power does come at a little bit of a price. His batting average has typically been very low, and his strikeout rate has been pretty high. He hit .215 with a 33.0% strikeout rate in the minors last year, so his .239 batting average and 29.2% strikeout rate in the majors last year are actually steps in the right direction.

Hitting in the middle of a young, improving lineup could lead to big RBI and runs scored numbers from Montgomery this year, and a 30-homer, 100-RBI season is well within his reach.

He should continue to refine his approach as he adjusts to the majors, and with all the power upside, he can be a breakout hitter who establishes himself as a top shortstop for future years, especially if he can balance out his profile a little bit.

JJ Wetherholt, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP - 215

Wetherholt has been getting so much hype that he's almost risen to the point where the value isn't quite there. However, his upside is still high enough that getting him after about 175 picks still makes sense. You won't be able to sleep on him too, too long anymore, but the Cardinals' infielder is poised for a breakout campaign in his rookie season.

A two-hit day for JJ!

Fighting for a spot on the Opening Day roster, MLB's No. 5 prospect JJ Wetherholt raps a pair two hits for the @Cardinals during Spring Breakout. pic.twitter.com/y3i1klgG4a

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 19, 2026

Wetherholt is the No. 5 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, and the Cardinals are looking to the future after trading multiple veterans this past offseason. Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan vacated spots in the infield for Wetherholt, who looks ready to contribute as the everyday 2B right away.

Last year, he split his time between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Louisville. He hit 17 homers and had 23 stolen bases in 109 games with a triple-slash of .306/.421/.510.

This spring, he has gone 6-for-28 (.214) through 13 games, with two home runs and two stolen bases. He has shown great plate discipline with eight walks in his 37 plate appearances as well, and has only struck out six times. There's a chance Wetherholt could start the season as the team's leadoff hitter or hitting second behind Masyn Winn.

Even if he takes some time to work his way up to one of those spots, he could thrive near the top of the order at some point this season.

Wetherholt is my favorite rookie to target in the middle rounds of standard leagues, and his positional versatility makes him easy to find a spot for on your roster, regardless of how the early rounds play out.

Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP - 183

Aranda started his breakout last season, but the 27-year-old is still available at a great value this year.

Jonathan Aranda's February ADP on NFBC is around pick 190.

Love that value.

2025
12.8% BRL, 93 mph AVG EV, 54.5% HH
.291 xBA, .515 xSLG

Probably platoons a bit, but there's .270+/20+ upside over 500+ PA.#FantasyBaseballpic.twitter.com/qrLE13ftRb

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 16, 2026

In 2025, Aranda was a prototypical post-hype sleeper. He had been ranked as one of the top prospects for the Rays for several years, but battled injuries and ineffectiveness in the majors. He changed that last year, though, making the team out of spring training and playing 106 games.

He missed a couple of months with a fractured wrist but still posted 14 homers, 56 runs scored, 59 RBIs, and a .381 wOBA. He didn't have monster power numbers, but his underlying metrics hint that more could be on the way.

He finished last year with a 54.5% hard-hit rate that ranked him in the 96th percentile of qualified hitters. He also ranked in the 98th percentile in LA Sweet-Spot% and in the top five in both xwOBA and xBA.

He returned from his fractured wrist for the last three games of the year and smashed a pair of home runs against the Blue Jays. If he’s fully healthy this season, he has the potential for some positive regression. He should be in a great spot anchoring the middle of the younger Rays lineup, right in front of rising star power hitter Junior Caminero.

Even without the advantage of playing in a Triple-A park for home games, Aranda is a great mid-round choice at 1B and has the potential to continue his breakout and be a top-10 option at the position this season.

Kyle Teel, C, Chicago White Sox

ADP - 227

Teel made it to the majors quickly last year after changing his Sox from Red Sox to White Sox as the chief prospect heading to Chicago as part of the Garrett Crochet trade. Teel had a solid first taste of the majors and was on track for a key spot in the batting order before a hamstring injury in the World Baseball Classic.

Teel hit .273 with eight homers and a solid .379 wOBA in his first 78 games in the majors, posting a 37.6% hard-hit rate. In Triple-A, he was slightly better with a .295 average and .397 wOBA, and he should improve in his second season in the majors.

He homered for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic against Team USA:

Kyle Teel puts Team Italy on the board first! #WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/TMnkgkGlI9

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 11, 2026

Unfortunately for Teel, he pulled his hamstring on a double later in the same game. He was diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and was expected to miss 4-6 weeks. While that ended his WBC and means he'll start the season on the injured list, it also keeps his ADP down and could set him up to be a steal later in drafts.

Along with Montgomery, Teel is another young bat in Chicago that makes a lot of sense to consider. The White Sox offense was fun in the second half of last year, and with Munetaka Murakami in the mix, it should be productive once again.

You'll need a short-term patch for Teel at the beginning of the season, but by the end of the year, the 24-year-old lefty could be a reliable option with upside at the catcher position.

Daylen Lile, OF, Washington Nationals

ADP - 200

Another lineup that is loaded with young talent and potential breakout bats this season is the Washington Nationals. While James Wood receives most of the attention, I'm high on Daylen Lile and Brady House to be strong performers with big upside as well.

Lile is available late in drafts as an outfield depth piece, but the 23-year-old showed a lot of breakout potential after joining the Nats lineup in the middle of last year. He hit .328 with 12 stolen bases in 47 games in the minors before playing 91 games in the majors and hitting .299 with nine homers, eight stolen bases, and a .360 wOBA. He had 15 doubles and 11 triples, ranking fourth in the majors in that category.

He set the rookie record with 10 triples and then tacked on one more for good measure.

TRIPLES FROM A NATS ROOKIE:
3. Turner (8)
2. Harper (9)

1. LILE (TEN) pic.twitter.com/2vtJvoTM42

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 16, 2025

Lile was especially strong in September, hitting cleanup for most of the month and hitting .360 (36-for-100 with three doubles, seven triples, six homers, a stolen base, and a .404 wOBA.

While he may not be able to sustain that for a full season, and triples can be a little gimmicky sometimes, Lile has both power and speed upside that make him an awesome potential breakout candidate to target later in your drafts.

Carson Benge, OF, New York Mets

ADP - 328

Another strong outfield option from the NL East that could be set for a breakout season after being a late-round pick is Carson Benge of the Mets. Benge has yet to make his MLB debut, but the 23-year-old is showing a lot of potential in spring training, going 13-for-32 (.406) in his first 11 games this spring. He has a double, a triple, three walks, a stolen base, and only five strikeouts in his 11 games.

Carson Benge lines one the other way for a double pic.twitter.com/z91Kdxuko1

— SNY (@SNYtv) March 16, 2026

Benge hit .281 in his 116 games across three levels of the Mets' minor leagues last year, smashing 15 homers and stealing 22 bases. He played only 24 games in Syracuse at Triple-A, but had three homers and a 52.8% hard-hit rate at that level.

Benge doesn't have an ideal launch angle and hits the ball hard on a line or on the ground a little too much to be a true power threat right away. However, his good average and speed should help him still have a good season if he claims enough playing time in a Mets lineup that should be very productive.

Reports indicate that the promising lefty has earned a starting spot in right field to start the season, with Mike Tauchman (knee) on the shelf, and he is a fantastic late-round sleeper with breakout potential if he has an everyday role.

Brice Matthews, 2B, Houston Astros

ADP - 700

Another young player who can use his speed to make a difference early in the season is the Astros top prospect, Brice Matthews. He has been a 2B for most of his rise through the minors, but could bounce around as a utility option for the Astros this season. He worked in the outfield at the end of last year and in spring training as well to find even more ways to get his bat in the lineup.

In his first taste of the majors last year, Matthews hit only .167 (7-for-42), but four of those seven hits were home runs. He had six barrels and a 41.7% hard-hit rate in that very limited sample size, and he was also successful in his only stolen base attempt.

In Triple-A, Matthews played 112 games and hit .260 with 17 homers, a .371 wOBA, and a 39.2% hard-hit rate. He also racked up an impressive 41 stolen bases in 52 attempts. This spring, manager Joe Espada has praised his athleticism and versatility and expressed that he's having an impressive spring.

He has played multiple spots in the infield and outfield over his first 14 games this spring, going 9-for-33 (.273) with seven stolen bases in seven attempts, three doubles, and this home run.

Brice Matthews - Houston Astros (1)* pic.twitter.com/nlczucAjAm

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) March 18, 2026

Matthews will have to find playing time in a crowded infield with  Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, and Christian Walker around the infield, with one of those players also sliding to designated hitter most days. Pena has missed time with a fractured ring finger that he suffered in the WBC, but his status for Opening Day is still uncertain.

The Astros have shown they can get fantasy value from utility players, and they may do that again this season with Matthews. His stolen base upside and solid power make him a very intriguing late-round snag, and he should earn multiple position eligibility as the season goes on. He still has a high strikeout rate and things to improve, but the raw skills are there for an impressive breakout.

T.J. Rumfield, 1B, Colorado Rockies

ADP - 653

Let's go really deep off the board for our final breakout pick of 2026. T.J. Rumfield isn't a name most fantasy baseball managers are up to speed on, but he could definitely change that if he can build on a strong spring.

The Rockies added Rumfield from the New York Yankees in a spring training trade after the team released Michael Toglia and Warming Bernabel this past offseason. The Rockies snagged Rumfield in exchange for relief pitcher Angel Chivilli, and the big six-foot-five lefty has been impressive since arriving. All signs point to him opening the season as the team's starting 1B, and he has huge upside if he does lock up the everyday job.

Last year in Triple-A, Rumfield hit .285 with 16 homers, 85 runs scored, 87 RBI, and a .372 wOBA. He was blocked in New York by Ben Rice and Paul Goldschmidt, but he has no one in front of him in Colorado.

In his first 19 games with the Rockies, he went 13-for-44 (.295) with four homers and 11 RBI. He brings power like Toglia and Bernabel, but his contact rate and plate approach are much stronger. He has five walks this spring, while he has only struck out once in 52 plate appearances.

T.J. Rumfield (@TrentonThunder '21) does it AGAIN with his 3rd homer in his last two games! 🏔️ ⚡ 🔥

In Triple-A last season, The @Rockies' 2️⃣9️⃣th-ranked prospect by @MLBPipeline hit home runs in 🔙 2️⃣ 🔙 games on three occasions, accounting for six of his 16 home runs. pic.twitter.com/n2sLwKkWRf

— MLB Draft League (@mlbdraftleague) February 27, 2026

Rumfield would be an "out of nowhere" breakout if he can make it happen, but grabbing him at the end of your draft could pay off, especially since his swing should be a great fit for the rarified air of Coors Field.

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