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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/8/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Juan Soto, Drake Baldwin, and others!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are on the schedule this Friday, stacking up plenty of great matchups under the lights, with all 15 games starting at 6:10 p.m. ET or later. While Coors Field and Sutter Health Park are not in play, a few stadiums still have favorable conditions for offense this Friday night. Let's look to start the weekend off right by pinpointing a few home run props to play this Friday.
In this post, check out four of my top home run props, where I think it makes sense to swing for the fences. The matchup, current form, and game environment come together to make these strong plays, and they come at good value with long shot odds. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks and NRFIs!
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, May 8, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/7/2026)
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Ryne Nelson (ARI) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 HardRock)
The Mets continue their road trip and head from Coors Field to Chase Field as they take on the Diamondbacks this weekend. While Coors Field has the best Park Factor for offense over the last three years, Chase Field is second over that span. The Mets' lineup is a little thin due to injuries, but Soto brings plenty of power potential to this matchup against Nelson.
Soto has been heating up over his last nine games and moved to the leadoff spot for all three games in Colorado. He is 10-for-35 (.286) over his last nine games with three homers, a 63.3% hard-hit rate, and a 33.3% barrel rate. He smashed a home run on Wednesday at Coors, giving him four long balls in his 22 games.
Juan Soto leadoff home run! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/TVxJeReOUX
— MLB (@MLB) May 7, 2026
Soto has a very favorable matchup this Friday against Nelson, who has struggled for the last few seasons when pitching at home. The trend has continued in his small sample size this season. In 10 innings at Chase Field, he has allowed 21 runs (16 earned) with four home runs against him. Nelson has allowed a .735 SLG and .499 wOBA in his home starts. Lefties like Soto have hit four of the seven homers he has allowed this season and have a .500 SLG against him in the split.
In their past matchups, Soto is 3-for-12 against Nelson, with all three of those hits being for extra bases, including a pair of home runs. While specific BvP numbers can be overrated, they help boost my confidence in a specific prop when they confirm the overall trend for each player, as they do here.
Soto always brings home run potential, and he makes a lot of sense in this spot Friday night in the desert.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) vs. Emmet Sheehan (LAD) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+410 DraftKings)
In one of the marquee series this weekend, the Atlanta Braves visit the Los Angeles Dodgers in a matchup of National League division leaders. In the first game of this potential playoff preview, the weather forecast is favorable for homers, with eight mph wind blowing out and temperatures in the upper 60s.
The Braves have gotten off to a much better start after last year's injury-filled campaign, and one of the keys to their success has been the emergence of 25-year-old catcher Drake Baldwin as a key top-of-the-order bat. Baldwin has been hitting second all season, but moved to the leadoff spot for the last three games with Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring) on the injured list. In either spot, he'll get extra at-bats and great pitches to hit.
He's hitting .303 with a .391 wOBA on the season and has hit nine home runs with a 50% hard-hit rate and 14.2% barrel rate. Four of those homers have come in his last 15 games, and he has a .508 SLG and .390 wOBA over that span. His last home run came on Monday, in the Braves series-opener in Seattle.
Drake Baldwin gets the Braves started in Seattle.
He is slugging .485 on low non-fastballs over the last twos seasons, 2nd best in MLB.#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/265GjeIhVJ
— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) May 5, 2026
Baldwin and the Braves will look to continue the early-season struggles of Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan, who has a 5.23 ERA and 4.30 FIP after allowing six homers in his first six starts of the season. All six of those homers have been hit by left-handed hitters like Baldwin, who have a .288 batting average, .644 SLG, and .417 wOBA against him so far this season.
Since Sheehan has been struggling on that side of the split in particular, Baldwin brings good value at his odds this Friday night in what should be one of the most exciting late-night matchups to enjoy.
