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January Expert Mock Draft Analysis - Best of the Rest

Fantasy baseball mock draft analysis for the 2018 MLB season. Pierre Camus examines some undrafted players by the RotoBaller staff in our early mock snake draft.

Here at RotoBaller, 12 of our expert writers recently took part in an early mock draft for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. We've already shared those draft results, including our big board from RT Sports, accompanied by a series of articles analyzing each round. Here's the complete list of recaps, in case you missed it:

Round 1
Rounds 2-4
Rounds 5-9
Rounds 10-15
Rounds 16-23

To finish things up, let's take a look at some of the biggest potential sleepers, busts, and players who did not get selected in our 23-round mock draft, as some may prove to be important waiver wire selections during the course of the season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

RotoBaller Mock Draft Results

Values

Jose Berrios in round 11 doesn't seem like a steal, but it very well could be. He didn't have the breakout season many envisioned, but he did maintain a sub-4.00 ERA and struck out nearly a batter per inning. He's got a nice mix of pitches and could parlay another year of experience into SP2 value.

Jon Gray in the 14th round and Dinelson Lamet in the 19th round are prime examples of power arms with high strikeout upside that should reward fantasy owners this season. Both had their ratios inflated by a couple of disastrous starts last season, but were solid in the majority of their starts. While Gray pitches in the worst homepark possible, it hasn't bothered him so far (3.13 home ERA vs. 4.06 road ERA). Lamet, on the other hand, must learn to pitch better away from Petco, but definitely has the stuff to do so.

Jonathan Villar was a huge bust in 2017, but he may have been a victim of his own success. Pressing to maintain 2016 power numbers that he had never experienced before, he struck out 30% of the time and dropped from 19 home runs to 11, while falling off a cliff in the speed category, from 62 steals to 23. Villar did have some injury problems during the season and the Brewers are upgrading their lineup all around him, so this is a perfect rebound candidate to buy in the later rounds. Anybody who is almost guaranteed for 25 steals and has multiple position eligibility should be taken in the first 15 rounds at least.

Reaches

There weren't too many reaches in general, but a couple of picks may prove to be costly if this were a money league. David Dahl was a trendy sleeper last season, but it wasn't meant to be. Injuries prevented him from taking a single at-bat for the Rockies last year, which means there is plenty of rust to shake off. Even in his enticing rookie debut, his plate discipline wasn't too impressive. Dahl is not someone worth grabbing in the top 120 picks.

Ozzie Albies should turn out to be a fine player for the Braves, maybe even this year. The question you should be asking is: what will he do in fantasy leagues? Albies should bring a high average and score a fair amount of runs, but that's about it. Considered a speed threat, he stole 30 bases just once in the minors, where those come in far greater abundance with more aggressive managers and inexperienced pitchers. If he replicates last year's .286 average and steals 20 bases with 80 runs scored and forgettable power numbers, he's really no different from Andrelton Simmons or Orlando Arcia, who were both available several rounds later.

I hate to call Miguel Cabrera a reach, simply because he's one of my favorite players and I really want to believe in a bounce-back year. Even if it was a matter of injuries to blame and he's somehow over it, there's no need to grab him in the fifth round like Nick did. Miggy's current ADP sits in the 90s in early expert drafts (he was taken 94th in FSTA), so that bet could have been hedged a little more.

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

Let's look now at the players who did not have the privilege of being selected by our expert staff. The first thing to keep in mind when looking at the list below is that these are the default rankings from the host site, not custom rankings by RotoBaller or its writers. You can find our very own up-to-date rankings right here.

The first thing you might notice is that this would make a mighty fine All-Star team... three years ago. Pujols could very well drive in 100 or more runs again, but his .241 average is no help and his on-base skills are just getting worse with age. His completely lethargic speed and worsening walk rate (5.8% in 2017) contributed to an ever-declining OBP that dropped to .286 last season. If he isn't even close to 30 homers, he's helping you in one category only. Matt Kemp also has a power stroke that remains his only valuable tool. He might beat Pujols in a foot race, but would probably get lapped 10 times over by the Freeze.

Add Victor Martinez and Jose Bautista to the list of aging veterans that will draw little interest on draft day from anyone who isn't a full-fledged homer hoping for a rebound from their childhood idol.

On the younger side, a couple of shortstops stand out as surprise free agents. Top overall pick Dansby Swanson has a lower ADP entering this season than he did as a rookie, thanks to a sad .232/.312/.324 slash line. He did show improvement in his contact rate and plate discipline over the second half, but the power disappeared with it. He may still be a work in progress, but if it suddenly clicks, you could have a gem on the waiver wire.

Addison Russell had troubles on and off the diamond, but remains an important part of the Cubs infield. At just 24 years of age, this former top 10 prospect is too talented to be left in limbo. He too will need to make more advances at the plate in order to improve a .240 career average over three MLB seasons, but there's enough power potential to make him worth a bench stash at least.

Finally, my two pet sleepers from a year ago that didn't pan out, Keon Broxton and Jose Peraza, were not even considered by our drafters. Given the dearth of players who can give you 20+ steals, it's a bit surprising that nobody even took a chance on either one. For my part, I'd rather get ridiculed for a new set of sleepers that didn't pan out than the same ones over and over.

It's safe to say we can ignore those players with an ERA above 5.00 without remorse, even if one is nicknamed "The Dark Knight." Julio Urias and Vince Velasquez are both pitchers that get great movement on their fastballs, but must develop their other pitchers to become less hittable. Each comes with injury concerns entering the preseason as well, which is why they are best ignored in re-draft leagues.

Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn were definitely serviceable as lower-end rotation arms for fantasy teams, but the fact that they don't have homes yet just leaves too much uncertainty. Landing in a place like Milwaukee would make for rougher home starts in either case. Meanwhile, J.A. Happ has been rock solid, if not exciting, for the Jays two years running and is entering the last year of his contract.

It's usually a surprise to see a reliever who could enter the season as his team's closer go completely undrafted, but it would appear that Alex Claudio will be free to own in 2018. When you have a fastball that doesn't touch 90 MPH and about three better arms behind you in the bullpen breathing down your neck, that tends to happen though. Just ask Jeanmar Gomez, if you can find him these days.

 

More 2018 MLB Draft Strategy




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

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Kyler Murray

Expected to Return This Season
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Al Horford

Tagged as Questionable on Friday
Anthony Edwards

Available for Friday's NBA Cup Game
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Questionable for Sunday
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Considered Questionable on Friday
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Back in QB2 Role in Week 10
Kayshon Boutte

Ruled Out in Week 10 Against Tampa
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Downgraded to Questionable on Friday
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Officially Ruled Out for Week 10
Tetairoa McMillan

Questionable to Play With Hamstring Injury
Rico Dowdle

Cleared to Play Against Saints
Harold Fannin Jr.

Back at Friday's Practice, on Track to Play Sunday?
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Placed on Injured Reserve With Neck Injury
Chris Godwin

Will be Ruled Out in Week 10
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Still Not Practicing, Won't Play in Week 10
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a Full-Go for Clash With Dolphins
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Available vs. Hornets
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Available vs. Hornets
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A Favorite At UFC Vegas 111
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Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 111 Main Card
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Exits Early Thursday
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Expected to Be Fine for Saturday
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Sidelined Friday
Luguentz Dort

 Questionable for Friday
Chet Holmgren

Available for Friday's Matchup With Kings
Zach LaVine

Set to Return Friday
Domantas Sabonis

Questionable to Suit Up Friday
Terance Mann

Considered Probable for Friday's Cup Game
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Questionable to Play Bulls
Dean Wade

Out Against Wizards
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Questionable for Friday's Game
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Getting Closer, Still Questionable for Week 10
Chris Godwin

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Headlines List of 13 Players to Receive Qualifying Offers
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Out Against Capitals
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Available Versus Blues
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Returns to Action Thursday
Connor Brown

Out on Thursday
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Could Be an Option Friday
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Remains Out Thursday
Roope Hintz

a Game-Time Call Thursday
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Blue Jays Extend Qualifying Offer to Bo Bichette
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Could Return to Action Thursday
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Tyler Bertuzzi

Pots Third-Period Hat Trick Wednesday
Macklin Celebrini

Leads Sharks Past Kraken
Jakob Chychrun

Records Three Assists Wednesday
Alex Ovechkin

Scores 900th Career Goal
Jorge Polanco

Declines his 2026 Option to Become a Free Agent
Adam Gaudette

Available Against Kraken
Scott Laughton

Set for Season Debut Wednesday
Chris Sale

Braves Picking Up Chris Sale's 2026 Option
Michael Thorbjornsen

Poised to Continue Hot Play in Mexico
Davis Riley

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of World Wide Technology Championship
Taylor Montgomery

Leaning on Putter at World Wide Technology Championship
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Offers Strong Value at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Griffin

Looks to Stay Hot at El Cardonal
Nick Dunlap

Looking to Find His Game at El Cardonal
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Searching for Consistency at El Cardonal
Michael Brennan

Aims to Extend Fairytale Start at El Cardonal
Shane Bieber

Staying in Toronto for 2026
Salvador Perez

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Royals
Trevor Story

Opts in for Remaining Two Years on his Contract
Yu Darvish

to Miss All of 2026 Following Flexor-Tendon Surgery
Shota Imanaga

Becomes a Free Agent
Luis Robert Jr.

White Sox Pick Up 2026 Option on Luis Robert Jr.
CFB

LJ Martin Expected to Play in Top-10 Matchup Against Texas Tech
PGA

LIV Golf Expanding To 72-Hole Format In 2026
Atlanta Braves

Braves Hire Walt Weiss as Their Next Manager
Kris Bubic

Cleared to Begin a Throwing Program
Brandon Woodruff

Declines Mutual Option for 2026
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Exercise 2026 Option on Freddy Peralta
Lucas Giolito

Declines his 2026 Player Option
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Sixth at Procore Championship
PGA

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Keith Mitchell

Finishes Tied for 10th at Baycurrent Classic
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Finishes Tied for 21st at Genesis Championship
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Max Greyserman

Finishes Second at Baycurrent Classic
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Finishes Tied for 56th at Baycurrent Classic
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Finishes Tied for 56th at Bank of Utah Championship
Pete Alonso

Officially Opts Out of his Contract With Mets
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Becomes Free Agent After Opting Out
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Wins His Second NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix
Ryan Blaney

Concludes the 2025 Season with A Win at Phoenix
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Strong Championship Effort Ends With Late-Race Flat-Tire Crash
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Overtime Four-Tire Call Costs Denny Hamlin the Championship
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Scores First-Round TKO Win
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Suffers His First UFC Loss
CFB

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Gets Knockout Win
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Gets Back In The Win Column
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Remains Undefeated
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Still Winless In The UFC
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RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP