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January Expert Mock Draft Analysis - Best of the Rest

Fantasy baseball mock draft analysis for the 2018 MLB season. Pierre Camus examines some undrafted players by the RotoBaller staff in our early mock snake draft.

Here at RotoBaller, 12 of our expert writers recently took part in an early mock draft for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. We've already shared those draft results, including our big board from RT Sports, accompanied by a series of articles analyzing each round. Here's the complete list of recaps, in case you missed it:

Round 1
Rounds 2-4
Rounds 5-9
Rounds 10-15
Rounds 16-23

To finish things up, let's take a look at some of the biggest potential sleepers, busts, and players who did not get selected in our 23-round mock draft, as some may prove to be important waiver wire selections during the course of the season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

RotoBaller Mock Draft Results

Values

Jose Berrios in round 11 doesn't seem like a steal, but it very well could be. He didn't have the breakout season many envisioned, but he did maintain a sub-4.00 ERA and struck out nearly a batter per inning. He's got a nice mix of pitches and could parlay another year of experience into SP2 value.

Jon Gray in the 14th round and Dinelson Lamet in the 19th round are prime examples of power arms with high strikeout upside that should reward fantasy owners this season. Both had their ratios inflated by a couple of disastrous starts last season, but were solid in the majority of their starts. While Gray pitches in the worst homepark possible, it hasn't bothered him so far (3.13 home ERA vs. 4.06 road ERA). Lamet, on the other hand, must learn to pitch better away from Petco, but definitely has the stuff to do so.

Jonathan Villar was a huge bust in 2017, but he may have been a victim of his own success. Pressing to maintain 2016 power numbers that he had never experienced before, he struck out 30% of the time and dropped from 19 home runs to 11, while falling off a cliff in the speed category, from 62 steals to 23. Villar did have some injury problems during the season and the Brewers are upgrading their lineup all around him, so this is a perfect rebound candidate to buy in the later rounds. Anybody who is almost guaranteed for 25 steals and has multiple position eligibility should be taken in the first 15 rounds at least.

Reaches

There weren't too many reaches in general, but a couple of picks may prove to be costly if this were a money league. David Dahl was a trendy sleeper last season, but it wasn't meant to be. Injuries prevented him from taking a single at-bat for the Rockies last year, which means there is plenty of rust to shake off. Even in his enticing rookie debut, his plate discipline wasn't too impressive. Dahl is not someone worth grabbing in the top 120 picks.

Ozzie Albies should turn out to be a fine player for the Braves, maybe even this year. The question you should be asking is: what will he do in fantasy leagues? Albies should bring a high average and score a fair amount of runs, but that's about it. Considered a speed threat, he stole 30 bases just once in the minors, where those come in far greater abundance with more aggressive managers and inexperienced pitchers. If he replicates last year's .286 average and steals 20 bases with 80 runs scored and forgettable power numbers, he's really no different from Andrelton Simmons or Orlando Arcia, who were both available several rounds later.

I hate to call Miguel Cabrera a reach, simply because he's one of my favorite players and I really want to believe in a bounce-back year. Even if it was a matter of injuries to blame and he's somehow over it, there's no need to grab him in the fifth round like Nick did. Miggy's current ADP sits in the 90s in early expert drafts (he was taken 94th in FSTA), so that bet could have been hedged a little more.

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

Let's look now at the players who did not have the privilege of being selected by our expert staff. The first thing to keep in mind when looking at the list below is that these are the default rankings from the host site, not custom rankings by RotoBaller or its writers. You can find our very own up-to-date rankings right here.

The first thing you might notice is that this would make a mighty fine All-Star team... three years ago. Pujols could very well drive in 100 or more runs again, but his .241 average is no help and his on-base skills are just getting worse with age. His completely lethargic speed and worsening walk rate (5.8% in 2017) contributed to an ever-declining OBP that dropped to .286 last season. If he isn't even close to 30 homers, he's helping you in one category only. Matt Kemp also has a power stroke that remains his only valuable tool. He might beat Pujols in a foot race, but would probably get lapped 10 times over by the Freeze.

Add Victor Martinez and Jose Bautista to the list of aging veterans that will draw little interest on draft day from anyone who isn't a full-fledged homer hoping for a rebound from their childhood idol.

On the younger side, a couple of shortstops stand out as surprise free agents. Top overall pick Dansby Swanson has a lower ADP entering this season than he did as a rookie, thanks to a sad .232/.312/.324 slash line. He did show improvement in his contact rate and plate discipline over the second half, but the power disappeared with it. He may still be a work in progress, but if it suddenly clicks, you could have a gem on the waiver wire.

Addison Russell had troubles on and off the diamond, but remains an important part of the Cubs infield. At just 24 years of age, this former top 10 prospect is too talented to be left in limbo. He too will need to make more advances at the plate in order to improve a .240 career average over three MLB seasons, but there's enough power potential to make him worth a bench stash at least.

Finally, my two pet sleepers from a year ago that didn't pan out, Keon Broxton and Jose Peraza, were not even considered by our drafters. Given the dearth of players who can give you 20+ steals, it's a bit surprising that nobody even took a chance on either one. For my part, I'd rather get ridiculed for a new set of sleepers that didn't pan out than the same ones over and over.

It's safe to say we can ignore those players with an ERA above 5.00 without remorse, even if one is nicknamed "The Dark Knight." Julio Urias and Vince Velasquez are both pitchers that get great movement on their fastballs, but must develop their other pitchers to become less hittable. Each comes with injury concerns entering the preseason as well, which is why they are best ignored in re-draft leagues.

Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn were definitely serviceable as lower-end rotation arms for fantasy teams, but the fact that they don't have homes yet just leaves too much uncertainty. Landing in a place like Milwaukee would make for rougher home starts in either case. Meanwhile, J.A. Happ has been rock solid, if not exciting, for the Jays two years running and is entering the last year of his contract.

It's usually a surprise to see a reliever who could enter the season as his team's closer go completely undrafted, but it would appear that Alex Claudio will be free to own in 2018. When you have a fastball that doesn't touch 90 MPH and about three better arms behind you in the bullpen breathing down your neck, that tends to happen though. Just ask Jeanmar Gomez, if you can find him these days.

 

More 2018 MLB Draft Strategy




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

CFB

Utah QB Devon Dampier Listed As Questionable On Big 12 Injury Report
San Francisco Giants

Tony Vitello Named New Manager of the Giants
Anthony Edwards

Active Against Trail Blazers
Grayson Allen

Active for Suns’ Opening Night Game
Kevin Porter Jr.

Won't Return on Wednesday Evening
Anthony Edwards

a Game-Time Decision for Wednesday
Daniel Gafford

Ruled Out for Mavericks Season Opener
Alexander Romanov

Expected to Miss Two More Games
Pierre Engvall

Ruled Out for the Season
Luguentz Dort

Questionable for Thursday Versus Pacers
Adin Hill

Out Week-to-Week
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Sits Out Another Game Wednesday
Caris LeVert

Cleared for Wednesday's Game
Marco Rossi

Available Wednesday Night
Cody Glass

Out on Wednesday
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Starting on Wednesday
Stefan Noesen

Makes Season Debut Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

Available Versus Philadelphia
OG Anunoby

Available to Play in Season Opener
Alex Caruso

Placed in Concussion Protocol Wednesday
Joel Embiid

on a Minutes Cap Versus Boston
Kel'el Ware

Available for Season Opener
De'Andre Hunter

Absent on Wednesday
Karl-Anthony Towns

to Play in Season Opener
Jaylen Waddle

Dolphins Don't Have Plans to Trade Jaylen Waddle
Francisco Lindor

has Elbow Surgery, Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Mike Conley

Moves to Bench to Start Season
Aaron Jones Sr.

Considered Questionable to Play on Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo

Opening Season as a Starter
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Dowgraded to Probable on Wednesday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Upgraded to Questionable For Season Opener
PGA

Alex Noren is a Smash Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Jalen Suggs

Good to Go on Wednesday Night
Karl-Anthony Towns

Now Doubtful for the Opener
Mike Evans

Could be Back in Under Eight Weeks
Bucky Irving

Will Not Play in Week 8
Jayden Daniels

Will Not Play on Monday Night Against Chiefs
Darren Waller

Dolphins Place Darren Waller on Injured Reserve
Maverick McNealy

Look Out For Maverick McNealy This Week in Utah
Justin Lower

Unlikely to Flip The Script at Bank of Utah Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Looking for Repeat Performance in Utah
CFB

Behren Morton Will be Listed as Questionable on Wednesday
Max McGreevy

a Longer Shot to Contend in Utah
Jackson Suber

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Greyson Sigg

Improving at the Right Time This Fall
Seamus Power

Hopes to Make More Birdies This Week
Patton Kizzire

May Struggle Once Again in Utah
Beau Hossler

Up and Down Heading to Bank of Utah Championship
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Find the Weekend in Utah
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Enjoying the Fall Golf Season
Brad Marchand

Delivers Two Assists on Special Night
Adrian Kempe

Lifts Kings to Victory Tuesday
Justin Brazeau

Records Three Points Against Canucks
Jack Hughes

Pots Third Career Hat Trick
TOR

Chris Tanev Could Miss Time With Upper-Body Injury
Jack McBain

Evaluated for Upper-Body Injury
Tom Hoge

Sputtering into Bank of Utah Championship
Sahith Theegala

On the Upswing Heading into Utah
Andrew Putnam

Looks to Find Form in Utah
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Looks to Defend Title in Utah
Ben Kohles

a Strong Value Play at Bank of Utah Championship
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Trending Up Entering the Bank of Utah Championship
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Searching for Spark at Bank of Utah Championship
Quade Cummins

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of Bank of Utah Championship
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Won't Trade Maxx Crosby
Jonathan Marchessault

Remains Absent Against Ducks
Darcy Kuemper

Available Tuesday
Corey Perry

Makes Season Debut Tuesday
Matt Duchene

Misses Tuesday's Action
Alexander Romanov

Unavailable Versus Sharks
Brock Boeser

Remains Out Tuesday
Jared McCann

Out on Tuesday
Jason Day

Making a Spot Start at Bank of Utah Championship
Los Angeles Angels

Kurt Suzuki to be the Angels' Next Manager
Bo Bichette

Plans to be Ready for World Series
Tyrod Taylor

Aaron Glenn "Moving Toward" Naming Tyrod Taylor the Starting QB
Zach Charbonnet

Finds the End Zone Twice on Monday Night
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Continues Elite Production
Chris Godwin

Bucky Irving May Not Play This Week
Michael Penix Jr.

Expected to Be "Good to Go" for Sunday
Nick Foligno

Back With Blackhawks
Nico Collins

Ruled Out Late on Monday Night With Concussion
Nico Collins

Suffers Head Injury on Monday Night
Jahmyr Gibbs

Blows Up For 218 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns in Win
Mike Evans

to Miss Most of the Year With Broken Clavicle
Brandon Woodruff

Expects to Be Ready for Opening Day
Mike Evans

Ruled Out Monday With Concussion, Shoulder Injury
Mike Evans

Making his Return in Primetime Against Detroit
Emeka Egbuka

Officially Active on Monday Night
Michael Penix Jr.

Dealing With Bone Bruise in Foot, Considered Day-to-Day
Jayden Daniels

Avoids Long-Term Injury, Status Unknown for Week 8
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Suffers His First UFC Loss
Brendan Allen

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kevin Holland

Drops Decision
Mike Malott

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Marlon Vera

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
Aiemann Zahabi

Gets A Razor-Thin Split Decision Win
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Manon Fiorot

Gets Back In The Win Column
Davey Grant

Suffers Submission Loss
Charles Jourdain

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Frevola

Gets Dominated At UFC Vancouver
Matt Frevola

Kyle Nelson Dominates Matt Frevola
George Springer

Returns to Lineup for Game 6 of ALCS
CFB

Colorado State Fires Head Coach Jay Norvell After Four Seasons
CFB

Florida Fires Head Coach Billy Napier After Four Years
Chase Elliott

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William Byron

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Chase Briscoe

Likely to Finish Worse Than he Starts
Kyle Larson

Despite No Wins on Drafting Tracks, Kyle Larson is Improving
Tyler Reddick

Despite Winning at Talladega, Tyler Reddick's Drafting Record Is Not So Hot
Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Excellent Crash Avoidance Could Reap Dividends at Talladega
Ty Gibbs

If Ty Gibbs' Team Executes a Better Strategy, he Could Win at Talladega
Daniel Suarez

Hopes for Clutch Talladega Win to Remain in the NASCAR Cup Series
Josh Berry

Might Contend at Talladega
Austin Dillon

Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins
Brendan Donovan

Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery
George Springer

Exits Game 5 Early After HBP on his Knee
Jackson Chourio

Back in Game 4 Lineup Against Dodgers
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Has Bone Spurs Removed From his Elbow
Brendan Allen

Set For UFC Vancouver Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder A Favorite At UFC Vancouver
Mike Malott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Kevin Holland

Set For UFC Vancouver Co-Main Event
Aiemann Zahabi

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
Marlon Vera

Returns At UFC Vancouver
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
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Looks To Bounce Back
Aoriqileng

Aori Aoriqileng Looks To Rebound

RANKINGS

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WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
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1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
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