Closers to Target and Avoid: ADP Analysis

Dan's 2025 fantasy baseball closer draft sleepers, targets, avoids based on ADPs. His favorite relief pitchers and closer values to target in fantasy drafts.

Hello again, RotoBallers! In the last couple of weeks, I’ve looked at early NFBC ADPs for catchers, outfielders, and starting pitchers to identify draft-day targets and avoids. This time around, I will focus on closers and relief pitchers to determine who will provide the best bang for their buck and who I will fade according to their draft cost.

Judging when to select your first closer can be tricky. Aiming for one of the top-tier, set-and-forget types will cost an early pick that is usually better spent on a starting pitcher or a hitter. However, the pool of elite closers is shallow and will dry out quickly once the run on them begins. Therefore, it is important to anticipate how the rest of the field is valued so you can take appropriate shots without compromising the rest of your roster.

The fantasy baseball ADP data I will be using comes from NFBC Draft Champion drafts held in February. It is a good starting point to get your bearings as mainstream draft sites open their doors for business. Also, keep in mind that this ADP analysis does not necessarily reflect my personal rankings. Be sure to also bookmark our constantly-updated fantasy baseball closer depth charts.

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Closers Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Fantasy Baseball Closers I Will Buy At ADP

Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves (48.00)

I am reluctant to spend up on closers, but I also know that I need some security at the position. Raisel Iglesias offers just that. In more mainstream drafts, the cost should be more inviting, too. Iglesias has had three 30-save seasons in his last four years, and the gap year was thanks to a midseason trade and role change after already banking 17 saves (2022).

He has a sub-1.00 WHIP in four of his last five seasons and an ERA of 2.75 or better in eight of his 10 seasons as a pro. The Braves will give him plenty of chances to lock things up, so I hope to catch him on the tail end of the run on the top seven or eight closers, even if it feels too early.

Raisel Iglesias posted a career-best 1.95 ERA for the @Braves to earn his third appearance on the #Top10RightNow! pic.twitter.com/aZlzFKExxW

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 9, 2025

Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners (63.60)

Andres Munoz is my fallback option if I decide that the early standouts go even sooner than expected. Munoz has great strikeout potential, posting a strikeout rate of 31.8 percent or greater in the last three years and having a 99th percentile whiff rate of 39.8 percent in 2024.

Durability issues are a concern. Munoz had Tommy John surgery in 2020, was slowed by shoulder and hip injuries in 2023, and dealt with back and elbow issues last season. A healthy Munoz will be a productive Munoz, though, and there isn’t anyone in the Mariners pen who will challenge his role.

Jeff Hoffman, Toronto Blue Jays (112.10)

Jeff Hoffman’s ADP is low because he didn’t sign with the Blue Jays until January. Hoffman has an elite strikeout upside, owning a 33.4 percent strikeout rate in his two seasons with the Phillies. He also decreased his walk rate substantially for the fourth consecutive season, establishing a new career-low at 6.0 percent.

After his signing, word came out that Hoffman failed physicals with the Braves and Orioles before landing in Toronto, another possible contributor to his low price. He is the favorite for the closer job, but in leagues where I nab Hoffman, I’ll also keep a close eye on Chad Green and Yimi Garcia.

David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates (138.10)

David Bednar had a disastrous 2024 campaign, but before that, he had three straight years with ERAs between 2.00 and 2.61 and WHIPs between 0.97 and 1.12. Bednar had a rough start to the season and went through another slump in August, but in May, June, and July, he turned in similar production to what he gave us between 2021 and 2023.

Bednar may have been a victim of pitch tipping last year, which can hopefully be worked out in offseason programs and spring training. I’m not over the moon for Bednar, but I’m willing to gamble on a return to form, given the discount.

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Angels (175.70)

My original late-round target was Angels reliever Ben Joyce, who I saw as a poor man's Mason Miller. Then on February 11, the Angels signed free agent Kenley Jansen to a one-year, $10 million deal. Jansen earned 27 saves in 2024 with the Red Sox and is the active leader in the category with 447 in his 15-year career.

After a rocky 2023, Jansen found his footing again last season and delivered a 1.06 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 54.2 IP. Jansen's 3.29 ERA was nothing special and the discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP (3.00 to 4.04) suggests he benefited from an unusually low HR/FB rate (5.6%, his lowest since 2016). Jansen will be a roller coaster and is likelier to carry an ERA above 3.00 than below but he will be the main man in the ninth for the Angels and a reliable way to bolster the saves category late in drafts. Joyce will stay on my radar as a potential handcuff.

Fantasy Baseball Closers I Will Avoid At ADP

Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians (34.20)

Emmanuel Clase enters 2025 coming off three consecutive 40-save seasons, and since landing the closer job in Cleveland, he has delivered a 1.62 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He’s about as dialed in as one can be, but I simply can’t bring myself to spend a third-round pick on what is essentially a one-category stud.

Doing so means missing out on one of the remaining top-tier bats or starting pitchers who will have a greater impact on my team than Clase. He is a great pitcher, but I can’t chase him this high up the board.

Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres (95.30)

Robert Suarez had a whopping 36 saves in his first year as the Padres closer. He also helped with team ratios with a 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. So, why is he set apart from the set-and-forget types going 30 to 40 picks earlier?

For one, despite owning a four-seamer that hits 99 mph, his 22.9 percent strikeout rate in 2024 lagged behind his peers. For two, even though he is set to resume his role in 2025, he has already been the subject of trade rumors. If he is dealt, there is no guarantee of his role, so I’m steering clear.

Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, Los Angeles Dodgers (139.50 & 142.60)

Just days after the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott to a multiyear deal, the team went out and snatched up Kirby Yates to shore up the bullpen further. Yates spent several weeks with the higher draft cost but manager Dave Roberts recently indicated that Scott will be the one seeing the majority of save chances to start the season. Roberts' comments are too vague for me to put confidence in Scott as they leave the door open to Scott being replaced at some point.

Blake Treinen is also available in the Dodgers' pen and Michael Kopech (forearm) can also be expected to be in the mix once healthy. The Dodgers are set for another successful season, but without a defined closer, I won’t pursue any of their relievers.

Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds (153.40)

Alexis Diaz took over as Cincinnati's closer in 2022, racking up 75 saves over the last three years. In that time, he has turned in a 28.6 percent strikeout rate over his 187 1/3 career IP. The downside is that he gives up walks in droves. In his three years as a major league reliever, his walk rate has never been finished lower than 12.6 percent, and in 2024, he had the worst K-BB rate (9.9 percent) out of any reliever with more than 10 saves.

With a new manager in town and the Reds having just traded for Taylor Rogers, Diaz’s place in the pecking order can’t be taken for granted. Even at the discount, I have no interest.

Don't be surprised when Taylor Rogers takes save opportunities from Alexis Diaz in 2025 #Reds

Diaz posted a career-worst 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP last season
While he turned the corner over the back half, he will have a much shorter leash in 25'

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 29, 2025

Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitchers Worth A Late-Round Pick

There are plenty more relief pitchers with potential available in the late rounds, and many are going undrafted. A last-round dart throw on a rebound project, a closer on a poorly projected team, or a reliever working his way up the chain can provide big returns down the line.

If you don’t hit paydirt, you can still walk away with a pitcher who delivers low ratios and high strikeout numbers while serving as a handcuff. If things go bad, they are easy to cut ties with due to their low draft capital. Here are a few I will keep an eye on as my drafts wind down.

• Ryan Pressly, Chicago Cubs (153.50)
• A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks (253.30)
• Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins (304.90)
• Calvin Faucher, Miami Marlins (316.00)
• Orion Kerkering, Philadelphia Phillies (317.20)
• Edwin Uceta, Tampa Bay Rays (336.80)
• Jason Adam, San Diego Padres (353.20
• Chad Green, Toronto Blue Jays (451.70)
• Justin Slaten, Boston Red Sox (478.40)

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