Eric Cross' Dynasty Notes: Cody Bellinger, William Contreras, Cubs Prospects, and More!

Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 19 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.

In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."

So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.

In this week's report, I'll be discussing plenty of Chicago Cubs, some rising Brewers prospect bats, and much more in this National League Central themed edition of my Dynasty News and Notes column here on Rotoballer.

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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes

It's been one heck of a bounce back season for Cody Bellinger. In 333 plate appearances, Bellinger has slashed .315/.366/.537 with 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases. This after hitting just .239 in 2020, .165 in 2021, and .210 last season. A big reason for the turnaround is that Bellinger has trimmed his strikeout rate from 27.3% to 15.6%, whiff rate from 27.2% to 19.7%, chase rate from 31.7% to 28%, and increased his zone contact and contact rates each by over 5%. His SwStr rate is also down to a career-best 8.9%.

However, while all of that is impressive and encouraging, Bellinger has also been posting the worst Quality of Contact metrics of his career this season across the board with a 6.3% barrel rate, 87 mph AVG EV, and 30.8% hard-hit rate. But as long as he maintains his 17.8° launch angle, he'll still be able to maintain a solid level of power output as he has this season.

While I'm buying Bellinger's turnaround, I'm not buying it at this level. He's been one of the biggest overperformers this season when comparing AVG/SLG to xBA/xSLG. If someone is willing to pay a top-50 price tag for Bellinger, I wouldn't be opposed to selling high right now.

Meanwhile, out in the bullpen, Adbert Alzolay has become one of the best relievers in baseball this season. In 41 appearances, Alzolay has a 2.27 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 29.5% strikeout rate. But just as impressive, or even more so, is his tiny 3.8% walk rate. Over the last two seasons, Alzolay ranks 11th in K-BB% for pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.

Alzolay's slider has been fantastic with a .180 BAA, .279 SLG, and 43.4% whiff rate, and he used that slider 56.6% of the time in the month of July. It's looking like Alzolay is emerging as a legit top 20 RP for fantasy purposes and appears to be the Cubs closer moving forward.

Let's keep this Cubs train going and head down to the minors to discuss a few of their top prospects. Right at the top, the big three in this system right now are outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong and Owen Caissie along with pitcher Cade Horton. Crow-Armstrong is pushing top-10 overall prospect status for me given his ability to hit more than 20 home runs and steal more than 30 bags annually while also providing a solid AVG and OBP. In 346 plate appearances this season, Crow-Armstrong has racked up 14 home runs and 28 steals with a .286/.370/.522 slash line.

Just a tier or two behind PCA is the powerful Caissie who has steadily improved all season. Overall, Caissie has cranked 22 doubles and 20 home runs in 86 games along with a .288/.391/.556 slash line. He's shown a patient approach with a 13.4% walk rate, and has also trimmed his strikeout rate as the season has worn on from 43.2% in April down to 33.7%, 31.7%, and 25.5% in May, June, and July respectively. If he can keep the swing and miss in check, Caissie could develop into a middle of the order impact bat and rise into my top-25 by the end of the season.

As for the two other notable outfielders, Kevin Alcantara and Brennen Davis, I'm in two separate camps with them. When it comes to Alcantara, I'm a believer in the all-around offensive skillset and still rank him as a top-100 prospects. But I'm out on Davis. The durability and performance haven't been there and he's struggling mightily to the tune of a .198/.316/.299 slash line in 45 games for Triple-A Iowa this season.

"But what if I can acquire Davis for pennies on the dollar?" If that's the case, then sure, the risk/reward balance makes sense there. But I'd only look to acquire him if it was dirt cheap or free.

You could add right-hander Ben Brown into the fray among the Cubs top prospects, but his prospect star has lost a bit of it's gleam from earlier in the season. The long-term upside remains a good mid-rotation arm, but Brown has struggled with his command and control this season, which will need to be cleaned up moving forward.

While the top of this farm system is exciting, there's just as much excitement a bit further down the prospect rankings with several names on the rise to target in dynasty leagues. On the hitting side, those names are Moises Ballesteros, Jefferson Rojas, and Derniche Valdez. On the pitching side, the targets are Jackson Ferris and Michael Arias. And for FYPDs, Maryland shortstop Matt Shaw is a top-10 selection for me.

Keeping it in the National League Central, William Contreras has quietly had a productive season, even if it isn't quite as impactful as many of us had hoped for. In 377 plate appearances, Contreras is slashing .277/.347/.451 with 11 home runs. Sure, that's nine fewer home runs in basically the same amount of plate appearances as last season, but I'm more encouraged by what I've seen from Contreras this season than I was last season.

In the power department, Contreras' Quality of Contact metrics are in line with last season. The barrel rate has dipped to 9.4%, but his AVG EV is up to 91.2 mph and the hard-hit rate sits at a career-best 49.1%. On top of that, Contreras has trimmed his strikeout rate from 27.7% to 19.4%, whiff rate from 34.3% to 26.1%, and increased his zone contact rate from 74.2% to 81.1%. All three of those metrics are easily career-best marks for him. Contreras is becoming a better all-around hitter without sacrificing his QoC metrics, and I'm all for it. He's still a top-10 dynasty catcher in my eyes and could be back in my top-5 soon.

Everyone knows how great Jackson Chourio is and how dominant he's been, but what Tyler Black and Jeferson Quero are doing this season isn't getting as much hype as it should.

In 381 plate appearances, Black already has 47 steals in 56 attempts with a .276/.416/.520 slash line, 16% walk rate, and 19.9% strikeout rate. He's even showing more power this season, which was the missing link in his offensive profile entering 2023. Even if he's just a 12-15 homer bat, that plus his plus or better speed and elite on-base abilities could allow him to develop into a solid fantasy option at the second base position.

As for Quero, he's currently slashing .292/.377/.494 with 13 home runs in 268 plate appearances as a 20-year-old in Double-A. There's no doubt that Quero is going to stick behind the plate long-term and maybe even win a gold glove or two along the way. And given his above-average hit tool and ability to flirt with 20 home runs annually, it's not out of the realm of possibilities to see him flirt with top-15 catcher status for fantasy down the road.

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