RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are here for Gameweek 3!!! We get to continue to cherish the return of our beloved Premier League season for yet another year. This year will be filled with new players, new clubs and just as many upsets and superb victories as every year carries. Today’s slate will be more of a GPP slate than anything else with many close matches and many possible upsets. I will guide you through this four-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
Please Be Advised: This writeup does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 3
[H] Leicester City (-115) vs [A] Southampton (+290): Total: o2.5
Both clubs have started off their new season campaign moving in opposite directions. Leicester blew an early lead in their first match against Brentford to eventually tie and then lost to Arsenal last weekend 4-2. Meanwhile, Southampton got thrashed by Tottenham in their first match 4-1 and most recently they came back from being down 2-0 to draw with Leeds. Neither club has a sound defense right now and Leicester just lost their starting keeper to Ligue One and they now must rely on Danny Ward. This will be a tale of offense and consistency, something both clubs have lacked so far.
Expected Outcome: Leicester 2-1
Forwards
Jamie Vardy-DK $8.5K || FD $
Even though his performances through two matches have been less than ideal, I cannot help but look at Vardy against Southampton’s defense. Not only is Southampton at the bottom of the league for shots against, but they are also at the bottom for crosses and big chances created against. Vardy has yet to register a single shot this season and if there was a time to break out of his funk, it is here and now.
Midfielders
James Ward-Prowse-DK $8.7K ||
Many will flock to Vardy’s teammate James Maddison-DK $10.2K || FD $ , but we are going to look to the other side of the pitch with Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse instead. Ward-Prowse has less of a salary burden than Madison does and he is going against an equally terrible defense and more so keeper. Leicester City is tied with Manchester United for dead last in the top-flight for goals against with 0.27 goals per match. For how terrible Southampton’s defense is, Southampton is giving up 0.04 goals less per match than Leicester. Until the Foxes can find a new keeper and a more sound defense, they will continue to struggle. Leicester also is at the bottom of the table for big chances created and shots against.
Defenders
Kyle Walker-Peter-DK $5.1K || FD $
None of the defenders for this matchup are truly ideal, but if we had to pick one, it would be the aggressive Walker-Peters. The wingback loves to attack and we saw it last weekend when he managed to score the tying goal for Southampton against Leeds United. Aforementioned, Leicester does not possess a good keeper or defensive line right now and if Walker-Peters gets behind them, he will cause pure chaos for Leicester. Through two matches, the wingback has 1 goal, 2 shots, 5 crosses and 1 tackle.
[H] Crystal Palace (+150) vs [A] Aston Villa (+185): Total: u2.5
Palace has yet to win a match so far in the early campaign of the new season, however, they did hold Arsenal to only two goals and just pulled off a massive draw against Liverpool on Monday. Villa is not having that bad of a start to the season either, but their offense is shockingly still poor. In their first match against newly promoted Bournemouth, they did not manage a single goal, despite outshooting the opposition comfortably and thanks to Ollie Watkins, they managed to net two goals against Everton last weekend. Palace, just like Fulham the week prior, has shown that they can play with the big clubs and still provide a sound defense and scoring support. Can the hosts continue their youth surge and maintain form?
Expected Outcome: Crystal Palace 1-0
Forwards
Wilfried Zaha-DK $8.9K || FD $17
Luckily enough, Zaha is dual-eligibility on DraftKings as he is on FanDuel so we can highlight him as a striker. Zaha has been in terrific form to start the season for Palace and he has been providing ample support. The winger is pushing himself to improve this much more now that there is talented youth being injected into the roster with the likes of Eze and Olise. Aston Villa likes to play straight up the middle of the pitch thanks to their formation they run – 4-3-1-2 – and this will only provide Zaha more space to attack. Through two matches, he has 1 goal, 5 shots and 4 crosses.
Midfielders
Eberechi Eze-DK $7.6K || FD $14
Because set-pieces are so dispersed throughout the Aston Villa lineup, we will sway towards Palace once again with Eze. The youngster has been a shining star since his arrival and he has yet to slow down. He is also currently in charge of set-pieces for Crystal Palace, giving him even more value over other midfielders in the lineup. It is slightly concerning though that he has only registered one shot through two matches and he has not created many big chances, albeit playing against both Arsenal and Liverpool. This seems to be a perfect opportunity for Eze to turn his fortunes around and help lead Palace to a tightly contested win. In two matches, he has 1 assist, 1 shot, 6 crosses and 1 tackle.
Defenders
Lucas Digne-DK $6.8K || FD $11
Digne is the perfect candidate for lineups this weekend and he is more than likely to be owned north of 20 percent. The wingback is in charge of the majority of set-pieces and he compliments the left side of the pitch with his versatility. Crystal Palace is also bottom of the league in crosses and big chances created against, which bodes well for the defender. Through two matches, he has 1 shot, 15 crosses, 1 tackle and 5 interceptions.
[H] Everton (-110) vs [A] Nottingham Forest (+300) Total: o2.5
This could potentially be the match of the slate. The second meeting between the two clubs could either end in a massive goal fest or it could be a very boring match. Everton has scored once so far through two matches and they have lost 1-0 to Chelsea and 2-1 to Crystal Palace. Life for Nottingham Forest did not start off well in the top-flight after they lost their league debut match 2-0 to Newcastle. However, they put together an incredible outing against West Ham on Sunday and Nottingham should ultimately have won by more than one goal. If they bring the same intensity in their second away match, will Everton have enough defensively to keep the hungry Nottingham Forest offense at bay?
Expected Outcome: Nottingham Forest 2-0
Forwards
Dwight McNeil-DK $7.9K || FD $15
Thanks to the nature of this article and being more of a cash lineup focus, we will highlight one of the new arrivals to Goodison Park, Dwight McNeil. However, if you are running a more GPP or dart throw style lineup, look at Brennan Johnson-DK $5.3K || FD $ of Nottingham Forest. McNeil is being highlighted due to the nature of his role with Everton. The winger is currently splitting set-pieces with teammate Demarai Gray, as well as complementing the right flank. McNeil also offers the best value at the striker position with a floor. Nottingham Forest is no slouch as we have seen from their home debut, but if Everton manages to score, look for McNeil to be the center of the action.
Midfielders
Jesse Lingard-DK $6.4K || FD $14
Unfortunately, there are not many great options at the midfielder position in this match and it leads us to Lingard. The Manchester United outcast has yet to prove his worth with Nottingham Forest and he tends to be on the end of the ball more often than controlling the play. He does have the potential to be a main contributor for the visitors, but time will tell if he can meet those expectations. In two appearances, he has 2 goals, 2 crosses and 2 interceptions.
Defenders
Nico Williams-DK $5.7K || FD $13
The wingback has been exceeding expectations already through two matches and he seems to be the main catalyst to the Nottingham offense. Williams has showcased his crisp passing and vision and he ultimately should have had a minimum of 2 assists last weekend if his striker would have gotten on the ball. Williams will without a doubt be highly owned in cash lineups thanks to Everton’s poor defense and it will make him hard to fade. Through two matches, he has 5 shots, 11 crosses, 4 tackles and 4 interceptions.
[H] Fulham (+135) vs [A] Brentford (+195) Total: u2.5
This will be an exciting match to watch with newly promoted Fulham playing Brentford. The visitors know what it is like to start buzzing at the start of the campaign after being promoted – they beat Arsenal in their home Premier League debut last season –. Fulham started off their campaign with an excellent draw against Liverpool after conceding two late goals and then dropped some form last week against Wolverhampton. On the flip side, Brentford came back from a 2-0 deficit to tie Leicester in their opening game and most recently defeated Manchester United for the first time in the club’s history at Old Trafford 4-0. This will be a tightly contested match no doubt, but the visitors may grind out a close win if they can continue their momentum.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Alekandar Mitrovic-DK $8K || FD $18
After potting a brace in the season opener, Mitrovic saw all of his shots brushed aside, including a late penalty in the draw with Wolverhampton. The striker has been mentioned once already in this young season and he makes his way back to the article again. His scoring prowess is untouched by many and he is always involved in the offense. If he is not creating plays and opening space, he is waiting for the ball to be crossed so he can win the air duel. There are not many standout options at striker on the slate and Mitrovic seems to be one of the more reliable at the top of the salary chart. In two appearances, he has 2 goals, 7 shots and 1 interception.
Midfielders
Andreas Pereira-DK $5K || FD $11
Yet another ex-Manchester United product makes the article with Pereira. The midfielder was the topic of choice during the offseason when assessing transfer rumors because Manchester United did not think he had the potential to be a fit long-term. Albeit not producing much thus far, Pereira is at least on the majority of set-pieces for Fulham. Thanks to his low production, his salary is also much more manageable than other midfielders on the slate with the same role. If he can start producing outside of set-pieces, it won’t be long until his salary starts to climb. Remember, the striker he feeds the ball to is Mitrovic.
Defenders
Kenny Tete-DK $5K || FD $12
Tete is putting on a show already and it has only been two gameweeks. The wingback blew up in the first match of the season against Liverpool posting double-digit points along with 1 assist, 3 crosses, 5 tackles and 2 interceptions. He is undoubtedly a versatile defender that can provide support on either side of the ball. In a match against Brentford who likes to run a more aggressive formation, Tete has the opportunity to put together a similar performance.
Goalies
Dean Henderson-DK $4.4K || FD $8
Not a single keeper is safe this week so we will look at those who have the best floor. Henderson without a doubt has caused Manchester United fans to pull their hair out because of the excellent form he is in through two matches with Nottingham Forest after the club chose to sell him in the offseason. In those two appearances, Henderson has 11 saves and 1 clean sheet. Surprisingly enough, Nottingham’s defense has not been spectacular in shutting down opposing offenses and Henderson is seeing plenty of shots per match. Everton has one goal so far this season, despite breaking through opposing defenses and this could be a chance for Hendeson to post back-to-back shutouts.
Vincente Guaita-DK $4.9K || FD $10
Crystal Palace was dealt terrible cards, playing both Arsenal and Liverpool to start their campaign. However, Palace was able to push forward and only concede three goals between both matches and walk away with one point out of a possible six. That is an impressive feat for a club that is starting its second season with its new manager, Patrick Vieira. Aston Villa has shown that they are no powerhouse offense, but they do love to take shots. Crystal Palace is also at the bottom of the table for shots against and it could prove a busy day for Guaita and his defense.
Expected Corner Takers:
Leicester: Maddison
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Crystal Palace: Eze
Aston Villa: Digne
Everton: Gray/McNeil
Nottingham Forest: Lingard
Fulham: Pereira
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
