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Early Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: The Fourth Round Pitching Run

The lineup (in draft order): Jacob Bogardus, Brad Johnson, Alex Brock, Harris Yudin, Max Petrie, Josh Leonard, Ross Williamson, Andrew Miller (from The Fantasy Fix), Nick Mariano (myself), Tom Bellucco, Brian Dunshee (also from The Fantasy Fix), and Edward Suletan.

We put together a traditional 5x5 redraft 23 round mock with 2 catchers, a corner and middle infielder, and 5 outfield slots. Pre-draft chatter touched quite a bit on how having five OFs to start would affect draft strategies. Eventually I’ll take on more rounds at once and speak on standouts, but early on I think it’s important to touch ‘em all.

In case you missed it, here are the articles breaking down Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3. I've put the draft board in for reference at the end.

 

Analyzing The Fourth Round

Let’s not play around here, it is quite bizarre to see the big pitchers (sans Clayton Kershaw) still on the board here. Plenty of us have great hitting foundations, but the dominos have yet to truly fall. Having the fourth pick of the fourth round, I was just praying that one of the three in front of me would take a position player which would clinch me getting either Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, or Jake Arrieta.

This is not to take away from Xander Bogaerts or Carlos Gonzalez, as I think they are fine picks in a vacuum, but with those pitchers on the board, I would not be swayed by Bogaerts in particular. His run and RBI totals should be good for around 80 again with an average over .300, but I’d want more out of either the home run or stolen base department to pick him here myself. Ed said he wasn’t particularly tempted by the pitchers, that he wasn’t going to deviate from hitting until others had gone pitcher. Such is life on the elbow of a snake draft.

Gonzalez I can see just because Brian hadn’t taken an OF yet and we’ve discussed how not getting good anchor in a 5 OF format can really weigh on you. Heck, I really thought about Scherzer in the third round but felt that if I passed on Jones, my OF1 would have too many question marks for my liking. Gonzalez works, but we know he has durability concerns and stopped running last year (in lieu of a massive power surge). I just hate relying on his health as my OF1.

Eight of the next ten picks were starting pitchers. Tom kicked off the run by taking Scherzer, then I took Sale, Andrew took Arrieta, Madison Bumgarner went to Ross, and Josh then selected Jose Fernandez. I can’t argue with much here. It’s the fourth round and the run was on. At this point, you took the guy you liked the most and locked up your SP1. I pretty much agree with the order, though I am lower on Bumgarner than the average bear, and I’d have left Fernandez for later if for no other reason than his innings cap looming around 180. Really though, when the pitching dam busts open late like this you just get your gut call.

Max broke up the pitching run by taking another buzzy name, Kyle Schwarber. In one catcher formats he might be creeping into your mind here, and in a two catcher format like ours I think this is always where you’ll see him go. He cited no prior intent to take Schwarber, but having at least one strong option at catcher felt essential and the time was right. The fear is that his average just bogs him down, that he just can’t maintain a healthy pace, that well…that he’s going to play like a guy who hasn’t spent a full year in the majors yet. 25 bombs along with run and RBI totals around at least the 80s and he’s worth it here out of the C slot.

David Price and Zack Greinke went next. Both of them will bring their talents to their respective new digs in Boston and Arizona. Both pitchers are staying within the division from where they previously pitched, so I’m not concerned about any wonky turbulence due to that. They both do move into hitter’s parks, and both will now have to face their former teams (Toronto and Los Angeles) who have very good offenses. Greinke is due for some regression but both of these guys in the fourth round are solid picks who can carry a pitching staff. Price will get more Ks but Greinke’s ratios are favorable. In a vacuum, I'd want the NL West pitcher over the AL East one.

Brad then took Francisco Lindor, and I’ll let his words do the talking:

“To others, I know Lindor will look like a reach. By my numbers, I got him at a value (he's the #2 SS on my board). I like that he's already adjusted to the majors (unlike Seager). He started cold but then hit .330/.369/.517 over the final three months of the season. As a leadoff hitter, we're looking at 650 plate appearances, 100 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .290 average. That's 15 steals away from Charlie Blackmon numbers. Is there risk here? Certainly. I've chosen to view him as an actualized player, but there's a chance he'll backslide in 2016. In the 4th round, I believe that risk is priced in. If Lindor does what I think he'll do, he's a fringe first rounder next year.”

Finally Jacob took Corey Kluber to end the fourth round, who might have an aura of disrespect around him in draft room due to his 9-16 record and 3.49 ERA…but the guy is still a stud. His FIP and SIERA were still below 3, he had 245 strikeouts, and brought down his already stellar BB/9 from 1.95 to 1.82. Don’t have any qualms about taking Klubot as your ace.

Now that all positions are fully in play, the dice are hot and the draft really starts to open up.

DraftBoard RotoBaller Mock Draft

 

 

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