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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs. Daukaus on 03/26/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Second UFC even taking place in another venue not the Apex, and first one back from the European Tour that saw the promo fight in London for the first time in three (!) years. And hey, while we won't have any belts on the line this Saturday, we can only hope to at least receive something similar to what we could enjoy last weekend: six fights and five of them ending early with three KOs and a couple of submissions, four of those finishes happening before those bouts even reached the third round! Talk about action-packed fireworks!
I don't really if we'll get to watch something similar this weekend, but I for sure know that there are a few reasons to tune into this thing. The main card is headlined by two recent losers still fighting for their first chance at a title shot in the HW division. Veterans Oleinik and Matt Brown will be doing it in Columbus this weekend too, and the W class will be represented by a couple of top-10 Flyweights vying for a higher-ranked position. It's the UFC, folks. I don't think I need to convince you of sitting your butts in front of the telly this weekend anyway. Let's get to the breakdowns!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs. Daukaus on 03/26/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Curtis Blaydes, $9200 - vs. Chris Daukaus
While Blaydes already came back from defeat in his last fight (a win against once-menacing Jairzinho Rozenstruick last September), Daukaus is looking to pull off that same comeback this weekend precisely against Blaydes. Both men dropped a fight within just 10 months of separation to the same fighter: Derrick Lewis. Blaydes got KO'd in 6:26 with rather mediocre numbers, but Daukus was arguably even worse with a 3:36 first-round KO-against last December in his last UFC fight.
So yes, this event is headlined by a couple of sore losers. They still rank 4th and 5th in the division, though, so there's that. I guess. Anyway. What matters the most here is the fact that Blaydes can do it all inside the Octagon while Daukaus is completely limited in terms of his abilities: it's live-or-die-by-strikes for him. Chris has not attempted a single takedown in his five-fight UFC tenure while Blaydes has finished only four of his 14 bouts without landing one of those he went for, averaging 10 TDA per fight in his past four (all from Jan. 2020 on). When it comes to strikes, well, these two are HW and that means KOs are always a chance to happen, with Daukaus the clear favorite on that front given the 5-0 start to his career letting opponents live no more than 6:23 in those fights. Blaydes can do it too, but he has reached the full-time decision twice in his past three victories. Blaydes has a much higher floor while Daukaus provides the higher ceiling, though the latter feels more like an either/or proposition. Give me Blaydes.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joanne Wood, $7200 vs. Alexa Grasso
Second fight in Joanne Wood's career, and 14th in Joanne Calderwood's. That's the same woman, just in case. Anyway, the important thing to notice here is that no matter the name she's fought under, Wood still dropped two in a row and three of her last fight bouts getting back to Aug. 2020, which is not quite phenomenal. Making things worse for Wood is the fact that Grasso is coming off a couple of Ws via decision, both taking place in the past year and a half. Grasso, the much younger fighter this weekend, is not adept at the grappling game nor chasing takedowns while Wood has shown much more activity on that front.
What will really swing the fight one way or the other, though, are strikes. Grasso's averaged wildly variable amounts of per-minute strikes in her past four fights ranging all the way from a low of 5.4 to as many as 24.6 with landing rates between 40-48%. Wood has sustained higher landing rates around 52% in her last four while also putting up way bulkier numbers in terms of volume, never throwing fewer than 10.9 SSA per minute. Two of those late three defeats Wood has gotten came via submission, but it's hard to see Grasso pulling that off this weekend. That, paired with the great volume in both striking and takedown departments has me leading Woods for fantasy purposes this Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bryan Barberena, $8000 - vs. Matt Brown
If II tell you Bryan Barberena has been around since Dec. 2014 and logging 13 fights since his UFC debut, well, you probably would consider quite the veteran, right? Right. But wrong when put in proper Matty-Brown context. Brown, he of the 41 years of age, has done it twice as many times as he's found himself inside the Octagon 26 times and counting already. That's absolutely insane and only topped by an 11-man group that will welcome him come Saturday night. And for someone of Brown's age, the truth is that things could be going way worse than they currently are going for him.
Brown finished 2021 with an even 1-1 record but he's also 2-2 getting back to Dec. 2019. He got those two victories (including the one in his last fight) via second-round KOs each while the Ls he ate came via KO (vs. Miguel Baeza) and decision (vs. Carlos Condit). Barberena has a worse record in the same span, going 2-3 since Feb. 2019 and only 2-1 if at the past three calendar years exclusively. Both of these two will always favor striking above grappling, and it feels like Brown has the juicier hits inside of him more than Barberena these days. Barberena also got KO'd in two of his past three Ls, which is rather concerning for what could happen this weekend given Brown's KO-prowess. If you want a safer floor, Barberena is the man to go with. If you think the KO is coming Brown's way, the ceiling is obviously higher. Choose your fighter; I'd bet on Barberena getting the decision and a higher DKFP tally.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kai Kara-France, $7100 - vs. Askar Askarov
These two have been phenomenal in their respective (short) careers doing it in Dana's promo. They have a combined 9-2-1 record with Askarov boasting a kinda-perfect 3-0-1 since Sep. 2019 while Kai has had a 3-1 himself since the start of the year 2020 (including to KO victories and a single submission loss). Now, in terms of how Askarov and Kai approach this MMA thing, well, you can surely say they have two completely different and opposed fighting profiles. Askarov is the clear-cut favorite on the mat while Kai is always the one throwing heavy strikes on huge volume counts.
Askarov, just in case, has gone for a ridiculous 39 TD in his short four-fight tenure for nearly a 10-a-pop average while landing 28% of those. The last time we watched him inside the Octagon, almost one exact year ago, he went 5-of-6 on that front. He's only logged more than 5.9 SSA per minute once, though. Kai, on the other hand, is a net-zero on the takedown front (0-of-5 in his past six fights) but he's posted figures above 10 SSA per minute in six of his eight bouts including his last one. Kai has got the grip of knocking people down recently stringing a couple of 1Rd-KO victories in a row in March and December of 2021 and there is a very serious chance he pulls off the feat once more this weekend. These two have very similar floors (Kai gets there on pure striking volume, Askarov thanks to his takedowns) but Kai comes with the upside of knocking out his foe, so it's clearly Askarov for me in DK DFS contests.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Aleksei Oleinik, $7600 - vs. Ilir Latifi
I don't know what is more surprising about Aleksei Oleinik. Oleinik looks 65 years old, but he's just 45. He has the same age as Tom Brady... only Tom Brady looks 30 tops, which is half of what Oleinik looks like. Anyway, and although Tom Brady gets his fair amount of hits through the football season, Oleinik gets his salary to hit and get hit himself, which is something you have to be very crazy to do even if it's only twice a year. Latifi isn't any less crazy, though, as he's already 38.
Both of these two, truth be told, have been on a very downward slope of late with Oleinik boasting a 2-3 record since Jan. 20 (but losing his last three fights, two via KO) and Latifi having a 1-3 record in the past three calendar years (he comes off a victory last June, though). While both guys can go for--and land--takedowns, it's not their calling card tho it's yielding results for them as they have won via submission once in their last couple of Ws. Even then, none of them has topped 45 DKFP in their last three fights, and only once (Oleinik) has reached more than those 45 DKFP while not boosting his final FP by an early-finish bonus. The SSA is ground-level low though Oleiniks has a little advantage on that front. If it was down to me, I'd fade the hell out of these two. If I was forced into choosing one, I guess I'd somehow side with the older Aleksei. It sucks, though.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Viacheslav Borschev, $8700 - vs. Marc Diakiese
While Diakiese is the longest-tenured fighter of these two, Borshchev is the one carrying all of the hype. That's reasonable, considering all "Slava" has done is breaking Dakota Bush to pieces in just 3:47 of fighting time last January when he debuted in the UFC. Not bad for a start, was it? Diakiese is fighting for the 10th time this weekend and although he also has a couple of KO victories in his resume, those two came years ago with the latest happening in Mar. 2017. Diakiese looked unstoppable through that win (3-0 then) but he's gone 2-4 after that and 0-2 in the last two calendar years. Ugh.
Diakiese can do it on both striking and grappling, though it must also be said that opponents have defeated him via submission twice in his career--including the last time he stepped into the Octagon last November. Diakiese throws a ton of strikes away but the landing rates are more often putrid than great at around 42% career-wise and a measly 35% in her last couple of fights. Of course, relying on Borschev's one-fight sample to draw sound conclusions would be a little naive. But this man is a 6-1 MMA pro with his lone defeat coming via split decision. And on top of that, Slava has dropped five of the six opponents he's faced, which is far from a joke. I'm sorry for Diakiese, for whom I stanned so bad not long ago, but I find myself riding Slava's wave these days.
