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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 11: Covington vs. Woodley on 9/19/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
We should have been watching Adesanya facing Costa this weekend, but the UFC decided to flip UFC 253 and UFC Vegas 11, and thus we're getting the latter prior to the former this Saturday. Back in the APEX in Vegas, NV, and a week before flying to Abu Dhabi again, the UFC will pit Woodley against Covington in an event that features six fight in its main card. Now, that's what we like over here. And let me tell you too, that this card actually comes packed as hell.
After last weekend lowly matchups didn't offer a lot of top-tier contestants, this Saturday is poised to bring the fireworks. Just look at the main event, in which no. 2 Colby Covington and no. 5 Tyron Woodley will fight to get a shot at Usman's WW belt sooner rather than later. It doesn't end there, though, with uber-veteran Cowboy Cerrone (no. 14, trying to get back on track after four consecutive Ls) fighting against up-and-downer Niko Price. Sprinkle some phenom-flavors by the way of Khamzat Chimaev, sub-machine Mackenzie Dern, etc. and you'll end with a very delicious card--at least on paper--to brighten your Saturday night plans.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 11: Covington vs. Woodley on 9/19/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Colby Covington, $9300- vs. Tyron Woodley
Both Covington and Woodley enter this fight as sore losers. Nah, that's not entirely true. Both have held the belt for some time before getting stripped of it not long ago, but both also lost their last and last two fights respectively, all of them since the start of 2019. Colby is 4-1 since 2017 to Woodley's 3-2 record, and the two fighters share something in common: they dropped fights again reigning-champ Kamaru Usman in 2019.
The profiles of these two are totally opposite. Covington is a strike-thrower and eater, he's just careless yet ruthless as hell. He just overwhelms his opponents averaging 15+ SS per minute compared to Woodley's barely-5. He also launches takedown attempts in bunches (one each two minutes of fighting time) compared to Woodley's almost non-existent ground game.
If only because of the volume, Covington is the clear favorite. It's been three fights in which Woodley hasn't even reached 80 SS attempted, and four without a successful takedown (he scored himself a submission win in his last victory, though). There is a chance that even losing the fight Covington reaches 50+ fantasy points, with Woodley's chances reduced to a KO/Submission catching Covington at some point.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Niko Price, $8500 - vs. Donald Cerrone
Much respect to Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone. The 10-year vet is entering his 36th UFC fight this weekend and although he's never lifted a belt (he got a chance but dropped it against Dos Anjos in 2015) he's a helluva fighter that doesn't give a crap who is in front of him. Sure, Cerrone is 0-4 since June 2019, but he's also 4-5 since the start of 2018 while facing the likes of McGregor, Gaethje, and Ferguson.
Price is, how to put it, an early-stoppage magnet. He has fought 11 times under the UFC banner and all of those fights ended early. He's 6-4-1 having KO'd foes four times, getting KO'd himself three times, submitted rivals a couple of fights, and also suffered a sub-loss once. The odds are with Price here, because if there is something sweet about those early stoppages in fantasy contests is that they always come tied to some nice bonus points.
Cerrone is afraid of no one at this point, sure, but he's been KO'd three times in his last four and his volume on offense is low. Price's isn't much better, mind you, but you know that at least he will kill or get killed while at it, and although he was defeated his last time out it's still reasonable to think he'll outperform and end Cerrone. Go for those extra points on this one.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Khamzat Chimaev, $9400 - vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Look, we have only watched Chimaev fight two times under the UFC banner, that's right, but he's 2-0 and he did so in a 10-day span back in July. Oh, and he finished his couple of foes in 1:12 (submission) and 3:09 (KO) minutes. LOL. Not the largest of samples, sure, but Chimaev couldn't have had a better start to his UFC career.
Meerschaert, on the other hand, has been around since 2016 yet he hasn't logged that many fights. He's 4-5 in his career, and 2-5 in his last seven going back to July 2017. He isn't a bad fighter, don't get me wrong, but it is not that he has proved himself against top-tier competition and when he's done so he's ended on the losing side of things.
Chimaev ridiculous dominance and super-short time inside the cage makes it hard to truly assess his abilities. That being said, he's the favorite and with reason. He's younger, he can do it standing and on the mat, and Meerschaert was mollywhopped the last time he fought getting KO'd by Ian Heinisch in just 1:14 last June.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Johnny Walker, $8300 - vs. Ryan Spann
God bless Ryan Spann and his lightning four-fight winning streak since he debuted back in 2018. In that time and those four bouts he's done it all: a KO, a submission, and two decision-wins fill his great resume. Walker, on the other hand, started rampaging (3-0, all KOs inside the first two minutes of each fight) but he's dropped two in a row via KO and the decision, the last one this very last March.
Spann has got his record by mixing a little bit of striking with some takedown-action, but he's still growing into the fighter he hopes his record truly talks about. Walker is just a murderer trapped inside an Octagon, no matter win or loss. Forget about volume when it comes to Walker, and just focus on those sweet ending bonus points.
Walker's attempted all of 80 SS in his five fights, which comes down to four per minute. He's needed no more to drop three of his foes, and that is what he'll be after this weekend. Spann comes with a pretty record, but Walkers looks like the biggest threat here north and south. I'm putting my chips on another early KO by Johnny, getting back to the winning track.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Randa Markos, $7500 - vs. Mackenzie Dern
If you're happy with assessing fighters' talent by just looking at their records, then you'll think I'm crazy by picking Markos and fading Dern. At the end of the day, Dern is 3-1 in her career, won her last fight, and her lone defeat came against Amanda Ribas almost a year ago. Markos, by comparison, is just 6-6-1 in the UFC, lost her last one, and has never won or lost back-to-back fights, alternating Ws and Ls for all of her 6-year career inside the Octagon.
But the truth is that Markos outperforms Derns in striking volume, landing rates, and most importantly, on the grappling game. Markos has attempted 37 TDs since 2017 succeeding 11 times for a 30% rate, while Dern is just 1 of 13 (7%). Sure, Dern has won a couple of fights via submission in the past couple of years, but I'm just not trusting that low volume.
This bout will probably go the distance, and in the long run, Markos should have the edge on both strike and takedown counting stats, which would bode well for her ultimately giving her a decision victory and the higher fantasy-point tally.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Holland, $9100 - vs. Darren Stewart
Although Stewart has lost some fights here and there between his UFC appearances, he's 5-0 inside the Octagon in numbered- and Fight Night-events, going back to 2018. Holland has also won two in a row and is 5-2 since his first time inside the Octagon in 2018.
With neither fighter being adept at taking down their opponents (29 combined takedowns attempted between the two in 16 fights with just 14 landings), this will be all about hitting the hell out of the man at the opposite side of the cage. If there is a chance for the weird takedown, odds are with Holland landing it.
Anyways, you can envision some three-round, 15-minute fight happening here and I'd give my two cents to Holland getting the W home over Stewart. Kevin has knocked out his last two opponents and has landed more than 61% of his striking attempts in all of his fights, and more than 66% of them in six of his seven.
