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Merry Christmas to those who celebrate, and Happy Monday to all who don’t. I hope everyone who is reading is having a fun, relaxing, and peaceful holiday season!
Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL season. Despite the struggles of many of the teams on the slate, Vegas projects this to be a high-scoring slate. All three home teams have individual team totals of more than 25 points, while the Ravens are the highest-totaled road team at 20.25 projected points. That’s 67% of the teams on the slate looking to produce three or more touchdowns; that’s a lot of offense!
In this article, I will be providing you with my Week 16 (Saturday) daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. Be sure to also check out our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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Quarterbacks NFL DFS Picks - Week 16 Christmas Slate
Brock Purdy vs BAL ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Outside of a three-game slate that coincided with Deebo Samuel’s injury, Brock Purdy has been outstanding all year. He leads the league in touchdown passes despite averaging only 27 pass attempts per game. His efficiency is off the charts, but that’s what we want out of a quarterback. His lack of volume hasn’t stopped him from averaging 318 yards per game at home this year, so unlike many signal-callers, I’m not going to worry about it. He has the best weapons in the league, and it doesn’t matter who he has faced. Purdy is just that good.
That there are three quarterbacks priced more than him on a three-game slate is a holiday bonus for all of us who want to roster him. The 49ers have the second-highest team total on the slate, and with this game being a potential Super Bowl preview you know that Kyle Shanahan is going to whip up a doozy of an offensive game plan. Purdy is viable in both cash and GPP lineups.
Jalen Hurts vs NYG ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
It’s pretty clear that Jalen Hurts isn’t 100%, but that hasn’t stopped him from producing strong fantasy options. He’s not throwing nearly as much as he did last year, and his efficiency has slipped as well. Fortunately, he’s a beast on the ground. Hurts has 14 rushing touchdowns; failing to produce a touchdown on the ground only four times all year. His rushing averages give him a floor of about 10 DraftKings points per game before he even throws a pass. It’s very hard to ignore that kind of productivity on a three-game slate. The Eagles have lost three games in a row, but this week presents them with an opportunity to right the ship against a Giants team that can be had through the air. Philly has the highest individual team total on the slate at 28.25 points, so Vegas thinks they will bounce back strongly. It’s expensive to stack the Eagles given the prices on their pass-catchers, but Hurts makes for a great cash option, and if you can find the value an Eagles stack has as much upside as any team on the slate.
Also Consider: Lamar Jackson, Aidan O’Connell
Running Backs NFL DFS Picks - Week 16 Christmas Slate
Isiah Pacheco vs LV ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
If practice reports are to be trusted, Pacheco should be back in the lineup on Monday for the Chiefs. Prior to his injury, Pacheco had back-to-back games that showed his full potential as a lead running back. In those two games, he scored three touchdowns, had nine targets, and saw an average of 21 opportunities per game. He had taken a lot of the passing down work from Jerick McKinnon, and the offense was finally getting away from being “too cute” inside the five and instead just letting Pacheco do his thing.
Las Vegas is awful against the run, and they allowed Pacheco to have his most complete game of the season in Week 12. At just $6,500 he is over three thousand dollars cheaper than Christian McCaffrey and has a far better matchup. He may not outscore CMC, but his point per dollar could end up being the highest at the position. He’s a great pivot off of a Kansas City passing stack and should be the first name you lock into your lineup in cash games.
Christian McCaffrey vs BAL ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel)
It will be very hard to fit Christian McCaffrey into your lineup given his price point, but no player in the league has a higher floor than him. He’s scored 19.5 or more DraftKings points in all but two games this year, and he’s had less than three receptions in only one game. It doesn’t matter what the matchup is, CMC is just too good to completely fade. Baltimore isn’t a strong matchup for opposing running backs, but McCaffrey is involved in so many ways that he can hit value through the air or on the ground.
Also Consider: D'Andre Swift, Gus Edwards, Zamir White (Jacobs is out), Boston Scott (Showdown only, but he kills the Giants)
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Wide Receivers NFL DFS Picks - Week 16 Christmas Slate
Rashee Rice vs LV ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Rashee Rice has emerged as a legitimate top option in the Kansas City passing game. He’s seen nine or more targets in each of his last four games. With that added volume he’s produced three touchdowns and has scored at least 14.4 DraftKings points in each of the four games. What’s encouraging is that Rice has seen his snap share and route participation increase to big-time levels over the last month. Most importantly, he’s earned the trust of Patrick Mahomes and the quarterback is looking for Rice in important moments.
Although the Raiders have played better since Antonio Pierce took over as Head Coach, they still don’t have an elite defense. Easton Stick passed all over them last Thursday, albeit in garbage time, but Patrick Mahomes is a massive upgrade over Stick and won’t need garbage time to start throwing. Yes, we are focusing on Isiah Pacheco in cash games, but in tournaments, it’s the Chiefs' passing game that should be targeted. Given his volume, Rice can also be played as a one-off, or in conjunction with Pacheco, in cash games.
Wide receivers with more fantasy points than Rashee Rice over the last 4 weeks:
Deebo Samuel
CeeDee Lamb— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 18, 2023
A.J. Brown vs NYG ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Jalen Hurts may be slightly broken, but that hasn’t hurt A.J. Brown’s volume. He may not have done much with that volume, but Brown has seen nine or more targets in each of his last four games, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all four of those games. Three of them were against relatively difficult defenses, so we can take some of Brown’s results with a grain of salt. The Giants' secondary isn’t very good, and Brown should be able to dominate if Hurts continues to feed him.
DeVonta Smtih isn’t practicing this week yet, and if he’s out or limited, then it’ll be the A.J. Brown show. It’s going to be hard to stack Brown with Christian McCaffrey, so you’re going to have to make some choices, but so is everyone else. It’s not unreasonable to think that people may look to save money and stack San Francisco or Kanas City, so use that opportunity to grab Brown and benefit if his targets start to turn into touchdowns.
Also Consider: Deebo Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Justin Watson, Tre Tucker, WanDale Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr., Quez Watkins (if DeVonta Smith is out)
Tight Ends NFL DFS Picks - Week 16 Christmas Slate
Isaiah Likely @ SF ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Some of the receivers for the Ravens have more of an upside, but no pass catcher is more reliable for Baltimore than Isaiah Likely. He’s stepped into the Mark Andrews role and has averaged 6.33 targets per game since Week 12. Over his last two weeks, Likely has averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game; a huge number for a tight end priced at $4,200. This is a loaded slate and we are going to want to spend up at the skill positions, so we need to save money somewhere. Tight end is the best place to find those savings, and Likely is a volume hog in an offense that will need to throw to keep up with the 49ers. He’s an easy play in cash games and is a strong bring-back option in tournaments.
Also Consider: Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Michael Mayer
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